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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

The situation reminds me of the tornado event 7 years ago that hit alabama when we had very high shear but around 1000j of instability or less. Which produced a ef-3 tornado during the night. But with this event its better synoptically than that one.
 
One thing is, im not buying a complete squall line coming through alabama. But will see. Any little broken segment in it will spin though. Screenshot_20190410-220745_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
We got a day 3 enhanced

...East Texas through western Alabama...
Models indicate ongoing convection at the start of the period across
north Texas, which may pose a risk for hail given steep mid-level
lapse rates in that area. Through the day, storms will gradually
become more widespread across Arkansas and Louisiana through midday
and toward evening. Weak to moderate buoyancy, strong deep shear,
and backed low-level winds will favor all modes of severe, with
tornadoes and damaging wind gusts being the primary threats.
Particularly concerning is the hint in nearly all guidance that
convection will develop within the free warm sector well removed
from any fronts during peak heating hours. This scenario would
likely result in potential for several tornadoes (a few significant)
and damaging wind gusts assuming instability profiles verify as
currently progged. Concerns remain regarding timing of the wave and
subsequent convective development, with an overall westward trend
apparent in convective evolution compared to yesterday's runs. Some
continued disagreement also exists in most recent guidance with
regard to eastward progression of convection. Instability may also
become a limiting factor if too many storms form and result in
unfavorable storm-scale interactions. Nevertheless, a synoptically
evident severe weather episode appears likely to unfold - especially
within the Enhanced Risk area.
 
day3otlk_0730.gif
 
It looks like EURO has also slowed down Sunday's cold front a bit. Now just need the GFS/NAM to play ball.

It's a joke of a model, but what the NAVY has been showing consistently would be the most ideal solution.
 
First sounding from north Louisiana, second from central, first one is more concerning, classic EML that’s decently strong but won’t cap convection the whole day as strong forcing combined with SFC temps heating up will easily break this, than that classic near dry adiabatic lapse rate, would likely cause strong updrafts, very large hail, some tornadoes and those hodos have been hugely curved 242BCC59-FE4B-46A5-A42D-C435F5E9B567.pngA989E958-5A3C-470E-94A7-3542140A8D09.png
 
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