• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

Just had a chance to finally see the 18z NAM. Wow is all I have to say. Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia all could see Tornadoes. Could be a very bad weekend across the region, and sadly next week looks even worse.
 
Yeah the cutter parade continues which is deadly during the warm season.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Just had a chance to finally see the 18z NAM. Wow is all I have to say. Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia all could see Tornadoes. Could be a very bad weekend across the region, and sadly next week looks even worse.
Click to expand...
What has me concerned is the possiblity of two waves into alabama, Georgia. And how much instability can make it for the 1st batch of storms. But LA/MS look to have it rough as well as east texas. Waiting too see how the 00z nam takes the two waves and whether local weather channels will mention it.
 
Here's some interesting pics. From similar analogs to this upcoming event. It puts the 15% to 30% tornado risk areas on day 3 and day 4. That day 3 actually lines up nicely with the enhanced risk area from spc. Screenshot_20190411-201917_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190411-201929_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Zander98al said:
What has me concerned is the possiblity of two waves into alabama, Georgia. And how much instability can make it for the 1st batch of storms. But LA/MS look to have it rough as well as east texas. Waiting too see how the 00z nam takes the two waves and whether local weather channels will mention it.
Click to expand...

I would put no stock at all in a second wave despite what the models say. Im not saying to put it out of your mind or to not watch for one though. Experience tells me that the second wave will probably be a thin line of heavy showers on the front unless the squall line moves out very early or the cold pool associated with it falls apart.

Ive been burned waiting on that second round too many times in setups like this.
 
if a supercell can find a open area with no linear convection near it, this sounding would easily support a strong/long track tornado, but like I said it depends on how storms merge/become linear due to changing wind profiles
73E2DA49-338F-455E-B75B-E5FAC0E5F71A.png
 
Boy the 0z NAM man. At least it seems to be stalling again, because those PDS Tornado soundings are tilting me.
 
You know arcc mentioned watching out for a surprise storm saturday were you wouldn't expect or something like that the other day. And the 3k nam indicates a area of north alabama and north mississippi on saturday. That a surprise storm could initiate. And be by itself.
 
This is not good, supercells all over Alabama

namconus_ref_frzn_seus_45.png
 
If there’s any good news, 3km clusters things up quick af in Louisiana, bad news ? Horrible soundings, let a storm in a free environment and wedges are possible, me saying that makes me sick DBAA23EC-025E-4106-9FB3-2F495AD61E47.jpegCCF04424-4534-438F-BA05-E4709F6C3C14.png
 
Zander98al said:
Theyll be low top supercells but shear will have each one rotating i imagine. Because SRH helicity all the way to 1km is plentiful. If there was more instability itd be scary.
Click to expand...

Your scenario reminds me of the mini outbreak in mid March that caused the tornadoes in Central and East Alabama, every storm was rotating with that kidney bean shape but only a few dropped tornadoes.
 
I almost think models are undergoing instability a bit. Dew points are projected to be in the upper 60s in central alabama. If instability is just a little bit more than forecasted in models it'd be significant.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
RollTide18 said:
Your scenario reminds me of the mini outbreak in mid March that caused the tornadoes in Central and East Alabama, every storm was rotating with that kidney bean shape but only a few dropped tornadoes.
Click to expand...
That one had a bit more instability. But lesser shear. But it may end up being like that. I don't think alabama will have any violent tornadoes but i imagine there will be a good bit of warnings.
 
RollTide18 said:
Your scenario reminds me of the mini outbreak in mid March that caused the tornadoes in Central and East Alabama, every storm was rotating with that kidney bean shape but only a few dropped tornadoes.
Click to expand...

That time there was 150-250 of 1/3km SRH, this time there will be SRH around 300-400 ms2-s, also stronger low level shear, but less instability, definitely supports those types of storms that produce strong quick spin ups and storms with no thunder or lightning, not major/strong long track tornadoes tho 119814C8-8613-4399-83CB-58DC111A4716.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That time there was 150-250 of 1/3km SRH, this time there will be SRH around 300-400 ms2-s, also stronger low level shear, but less instability, definitely supports those types of storms that produce strong quick spin ups and storms with no thunder or lightning, not major/strong long track tornadoes tho View attachment 18779
Click to expand...
Exactly. But if models lets say under predict instability by say around 500-600j itll be bad. The lee county tornado only took 1000j of sbcape to become the monster it was. I have a feeling its being under done a tad.
 
Zander98al said:
Exactly. But if models lets say under predict instability by say around 500-600j itll be bad. The lee county tornado only took 1000j of sbcape to become the monster it was. I have a feeling its being under done a tad.
Click to expand...

Lee county tornado actually only had 500-750 jkg of SFC cape, but had increased low level instability (3CAPE)
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Moderate Risk basically a guarantee for Saturday, will be interesting to see if they go High. I'm not sure if 2018 saw a single high risk day.
Click to expand...
I think florida had a high risk actually a very very rare high risk for them. Or that might've been the year before.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
If there’s any good news, 3km clusters things up quick af in Louisiana, bad news ? Horrible soundings, let a storm in a free environment and wedges are possible, me saying that makes me sick View attachment 18777View attachment 18778
Click to expand...

Events like this will make you pull your hair out. For instance with the sounding above, while it has very strong shear, it could be too much with those meager low level laspe rates.

The bust potential is high with this one.
 
Arcc said:
Events like this will make you pull your hair out. For instance with the sounding above, while it has very strong shear, it could be too much with those meager low level laspe rates.

The bust potential is high with this one.
Click to expand...
I've read that for favorable tornado development you would want lapse rates in the lowest km above 6.5 or so.
 
Arcc said:
Events like this will make you pull your hair out. For instance with the sounding above, while it has very strong shear, it could be too much with those meager low level laspe rates.

The bust potential is high with this one.
Click to expand...

True, with lapse rates that meager updrafts wouldn’t be that explosive, one reason why here in SC/NC storms struggled with to go severe/produce lightning a few days ago because while LLvL lapses were good, mid levels lapse rates were garbage
 
00z NAM definitely looks to be the ceiling for GA.

GFS/GGEM continue to be notably faster (faster than the 12z runs even), thus "less" ominous because of the timing.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top