Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

[Zander98al]

Windfields are screaming with the euro. Even if this happens over night a strong LLJ can bring in a good bit of moisture. Even without daytime heating.

 

[Zander98al]

Channel 6 Tuscaloosa news forecast

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

From a NWS BMX WORKER ON FB

Ok folks...I hate to be a spoil-sport, but in the interest of safety and preparedness, need to get your attention regarding the potential for severe weather later Saturday and into Sunday.

It's WAAAY to early to pinpoint a specific time and location, but when you see a forecast for severe weather 4 or 5 days in advance, you know it has to be pretty convincing.

Keep an eye on the weather forecast for the next few days, and do me a favor: let someone you know and/or love about this threat. In today's world, there should be ZERO tolerance for someone not knowing it may be coming!

Go to weather.gov/bmx or your favorite weather source and keep up to date!

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[PEA_RIDGE]

NWS BMX has add a tornado threat to their HWO

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[Myfrotho704_]

Sounding from north Louisiana, that is nasty, strongly veered sounding, EML, low LCLs, 3CAPE, modest lapse rates, SRH of 200-400 ms-2s, curved, but also large hodo, lots of sfc moisture, feels a little similar to that 2017 setup that gave Parts of NOLA/akers LA that strong tornado, still differences tho

 

[Zander98al]

Sounding from north Louisiana, that is nasty, strongly veered sounding, EML, low LCLs, 3CAPE, modest lapse rates, SRH of 200-400 ms-2s, curved, but also large hodo, lots of sfc moisture, feels a little similar to that 2017 setup that gave Parts of NOLA/akers LA that strong tornado, still differences tho View attachment 18707

Once the NAM gets in range i imagine cape and SRH helicity will probably be higher. Should get in range by late tomorrow.

 

[stormcentral]

 

[Zander98al]

Do y'all think we may see a 30% risk outlined in the day 4-8 time period. Since confidence is so high? And models are so consistent. Its been a while since I've seen news stations so adamant about getting people to pay attention to this system. The last time i remember them doing this was leading up to the tornado outbreak in 2014 across alabama and mississippi.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

FFC introduced the always-ominous “interested parties” wording in their AFD. That phrase always gets my attention.

“The front is expected to stall across central GA for Saturday. A
wave of low pressure will move east along the old front on Sunday,
with another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms expected.
Even this far out, there is some indications that thunderstorms will
have the potential to become strong/severe. Interested parties
should monitor later forecasts for updates.”

 

[NorthDFWwx]

The 12z GFS makes the low 998-996 mb and dropping not a good thing that forecast pressure keeps dropping.

It was also slower.

The front doesn't make it through here now until Sunday evening

NWS BMX has add a tornado threat to their HWO

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They did mention the issue with timing (Saturday night), which could be the only thing that would prevent a morre significant event.

That being said, models have been trending slower/NW with more of a Sunday afternoon cold front passage for GA/SC.

 

[jackendrickwx]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oof could see the 2nd moderate risk of the year

 

[stormcentral]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

2nd most concerning sounding I’ve prolly seen this year, Louisiana looks like it could take a punch from this system with good daytime heating, strong veering winds aloft, curved but large hodo, which is very concerning, 1000-2000 jkg of SBcape, SRH of 200-400 ms-2s, very low LCLs, EML, hate to see when the NAM increases instability for these areas

 

[Zander98al]

STP and Supercell composite from the NAM is pretty high for saturday afternoon. Very dangerous setup. Nws says that itll be a QCLS moving through maybe with some embedded supercell or isolated ones for alabama.

 

[Zander98al]

The euro definitely looks like a more dangerous setup with it being slower and getting to alabama by 1 oclock in the evening. ?

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Yea this thing keeps slowing down, might hit GA during prime heating hours.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Saturday is looking violent to say the least for Louisiana.

 

[Zander98al]

This is Cips analog guidance were it shows similar events and categorizes risk areas based of similar parameters. And it puts up a decent risk area

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Yea this thing keeps slowing down, might hit GA during prime heating hours.

Yep, just need it to slow down a few more hours.