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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

this sounding supports large wedge tornadoes in Louisiana, very dangerous sounding from the NAM, extreme amounts of helicity, lots of llvl shear, decent CAPE, strong veering winds aloft, very large and curved hodo, 3CAPE above 100 jkg, very low LCLs, like i said, this sounding supports strong, long track tornadoes
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Myfrotho704_ said:
this sounding supports large wedge tornadoes in Louisiana, very dangerous sounding from the NAM, extreme amounts of helicity, lots of llvl shear, decent CAPE, strong veering winds aloft, very large and curved hodo, 3CAPE above 100 jkg, very low LCLs, like i said, this sounding supports strong, long track tornadoes
View attachment 18720
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Wouldn't be surprised if a moderate risk area is outlined tomorrow for that area if close range models continue with the threat. 12z nam is currently coming out waiting to see how it progresses.
 
I dare say parameters may still go up sadly. Just wait till the 3k nam gets into range ?. Were just seeing the begging of close range models come into forecast range.
 
These soundings are extremely concerning, larger CAPE now and fairly saturated low levels likely mean Mesos scraping the ground combined with low LCLs, this is actually more concerning than the soundings I saw with outbreak that produced the lee county tornado, still it depends on early morning convection, how messy convection gets, cloud cover, but these soundings have EMLs with them, anyways these sounding support 2+ inch hail, 70mph winds and strong/long track tornadoes, we might possibly see a moderate risk if trends hold E341F0A2-A816-4537-B8F9-AC9D7A70F0F3.pngAA1576C1-225F-4CD1-B807-3ADD96700AEF.png
 
It May turn into a qlcs later down the line but who knows. Higher resolution models as we get closer should answer it too a degree. Even if you have a qcls broken segments in it can still cause significant tornadoes.
 
From rich thomas in montgomery. From these pictures It certainly doesn't look like a squall line or anything on future radar.
Screenshot_20190410-112657_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190410-112709_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Models begin to differ on location of the surface low
but they seem to agree on the position of the cold front and the
deep moisture ahead of the front. The cold front will move into
Alabama Sunday morning and into Georgia Sunday evening. Moisture,
instability and shear increases over the CWA Sunday bringing the
risk of severe storms. This system pulls out of the CWA late Sunday
night with drying for the remainder of the long term.
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Here’s what FFC says.
 
12z euro has 996 mb low in the sweet spot for severe weather over alabama. Whether its a night time event or not the LLJ of this system will bring in moisture. Screenshot_20190410-131905_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Zander98al said:
12z euro has 996 mb low in the sweet spot for severe weather over alabama. Whether its a night time event or not the LLJ of this system will bring in moisture. View attachment 18731
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It's not really a question of moisture, but instability.

Granted, given the shear/dynamics, it won't take a whole lot of instability.
 
SouthATLwx said:
It's not really a question of moisture, but instability.

Granted, given the shear/dynamics, it won't take a whole lot of instability.
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True, the 12z euro has over a 1000j of energy from around midnight to 7am sunday.
 
Is this a situation that would spare much of GA from a dangerous SVR threat? I don’t see much of a wedge forming on any of these models that typically spares I-20 & points north from bad storms, but for some reason,they always seem to fizzle a bit once they cross into GA from the West.

Full Disclosure: I’m more of a WinterWX guy than a SVR one, so I’m normally quick to trash the NAM because...well, reasons.
 
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