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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

12z NAM is still nasty for Louisiana.NAMUS_con_stp_057.png
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Snowflowxxl said:
I'm very nervous about the nocturnal threat for Saturday night.
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Last time i had a tornado threat at night in my area was 7 years ago killed a girl down the street. Deaths rise when it becomes night events unfortunately. Because everybody shrugs it off and sleeps.
 
Zander98al said:
Last time i had a tornado threat at night in my area was 7 years ago killed a girl down the street. Deaths rise when it becomes night events unfortunately. Because everybody shrugs it off and sleeps.
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You must be in the Trussville area. That was a terrible storm at night. Several of my co-workers were directly hit and had moderate to severe damage to their homes. Because it was night, they said the confusion and darkness made it worse. The you girl being killed was just awful. A lot of people had no idea there was a tornado warning. That is why weather radios or phone alarms are a must.
 
Shreveport AFD:

Higher confidence in a potentially widespread severe weather event
hinges on the timing of these features aligning during the peak of
afternoon heating as the upper trough will take on an increasingly
negative tilt as it pivots NE directly over the region by late Sat
afternoon into the early evening. The strong forcing combined with
very robust shear profiles along the deepening sfc low warrants
ample cause for concern as it relates to the threat for tornadoes.
The likelihood of some discrete supercells developing during the
afternoon seems like a foregone conclusion with this very favorable
setup. Model progs seem to indicate a gradual transition to a more
linear convective mode later in the event by late afternoon through
the early evening hours. All that said, expect all modes of severe
weather to be in play for the duration of Saturday afternoon and
possibly a bit later. The other concern will be for some localized
flooding where very heavy rainfall could occur with individual cells
as well as training storms. This could lead to some flash flooding
concerns which is why all of the region is also included in a Slight
Risk for excessive rainfall on Saturday. Convection should gradually
diminish through the evening and overnight hours as dry slotting
occurs behind the ejecting upper trough with the cold front exiting
the region by daybreak on Sunday. Expect improving conditions during
Sunday as temperatures will only climb into the 60s for highs.
 
I'm looking over the NAM and I really hope it's just being crazy in it's long range because it's a little crazy for Sunday if you're going to be out on the road. If you're in one spot you can luck up and miss on a tornado, but if you're out on the interstate...you might drive yourself into a mess with severe.

At least if the front keeps stalling, we might be able to outrun that possible mess if we push for ASAP on leaving Sunday.
 
MRStorm said:
You must be in the Trussville area. That was a terrible storm at night. Several of my co-workers were directly hit and had moderate to severe damage to their homes. Because it was night, they said the confusion and darkness made it worse. The you girl being killed was just awful. A lot of people had no idea there was a tornado warning. That is why weather radios or phone alarms are a must.
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Clay chalkville/ center point area. It was awful. My great grandmother was hit, grandmother was hit, and my cousins. Id woken up to the winds roaring but didn't think about it. It was awful. And exactly everybody needs a weather radio.
 
312 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2019

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

High Fire Danger conditions are expected through the remainder of
the afternoon and into the early evening for portions of northwest
and west central Georgia due to strong winds combined with dry fuels.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

A cold front will move into the Tennessee Valley late Friday,
stalling across north Georgia Friday night. The front will move
north out of the area Saturday. This front will be the focus for
isolated to scattered thunderstorms Friday through Saturday,
mainly across north Georgia. A few of these storms could be strong
with gusty winds.

A stronger cold front will move across north and central Georgia
Sunday and Sunday night bringing another round of showers and
thunderstorms to the region. Instability will increase along and
ahead of the cold front Sunday and Sunday night causing a few
storms to become severe.
 
Brad travis says first alert weather day Sunday in Alabama edit now nws Huntsville not sounding too concerned says instability will probably be low
 
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Dang this system slowed down. Looks pretty bad over alabama instability of 2000+ with that amount of shear ?
 
Zander98al said:
Dang this system slowed down. Looks pretty bad over alabama instability of 2000+ with that amount of shear ?
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Systems/cold fronts slowing down vs what models earlier showed has been the very persistent theme since at least last fall due to resistance from the SER. Will it ever end? I still suspect the very warm waters offshore the SE to be a significant factor.
 
Rick said:
How much has it slowed down they still saying early morning here ....
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Idk tbh may change but around 9 o'clock. And then 3 oclock? Looks like the nam wants to have two waves for alabama one with more instability and one with more shear.
 
DustinWx said:
Local offices don’t change risk. Just fyi
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They do for their local areas. Currently Birmingham office has their coverage area under a slight risk for Sunday and as said mentioned waiting for additional models to consider upgrading.
 
Zander98al said:
Idk tbh may change but around 9 o'clock. And then 3 oclock? Looks like the nam wants to have two waves for alabama one with more instability and one with more shear.
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Looks like the supercells that fire over LA quickly grow upscale and surge out ahead of the surface front. The second weaker wave is convection on the front itself.

Not far fetched with the SSW winds aloft. Also interesting the NAM showing much more capping than yesterday. I remember the NAM having a bias regarding too much capping, I don't know if it was fixed.
 
TileDude said:
They do for their local areas. Currently Birmingham office has their coverage area under a slight risk for Sunday and as said mentioned waiting for additional models to consider upgrading.
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Refela said:
I am kind of ignorant but it seems to me that this is saying something different than the NWS Huntsville's AFD.
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News stations don't follow threat areas or severe risks that nws offices put out. They can sometimes be different.
 
Refela said:
I am kind of ignorant but it seems to me that this is saying something different than the NWS Huntsville's AFD.
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Yes, it does seem to contradict the HSV AFD. Watched Brad Travis at 5 and he seemed to think initially it would weaken in northwest AL and restrengthen as it moves east.

LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 345 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

Models continue to show a strong storm system moving from Oklahoma/Texas
towards the Tennessee Valley Saturday evening. A large area of
rainfall with strong to severe thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
and moving from western Mississippi into northwestern Alabama in the
by the late evening hours. Models have continue to trend slightly
slower with the movement of this convection into the area. Ample bulk
shear and helicity will be in place over northern Alabama and
southern middle Tennessee by midnight and will continue to be in
place overnight ahead of this system. However, the better instability
will remain further west over Mississippi and eastern Louisiana.
However, models do show between 200 and 800 J/KG of SBCAPE extending
into much of northern Alabama and portions of southern middle
Tennessee. Most models focus the better instability around 500 J/KG
or more in northwestern Alabama southeast to near Cullman county.
Given the very strong winds aloft and ample forcing this should be
able to sustain strong to severe thunderstorm activity at least near
and west of I-65. Further east, there is more uncertainty but just
enough instability may be available to keep this threat going. The
main window for this severe weather looks to be between midnight and
6 AM. This activity is shown by models to be along a pre-frontal
trough axis ahead of the main cold front.

Additional redevelopment of strong to severe thunderstorms may occur
as the actually cold front moves through during the afternoon hours
with this storm system. However, timing of this activity and how
widespread it will be is highly uncertain at this point. Especially
with earlier rainfall and continued cloud cover expected. However,
models do show between 500 and 1200 J/KG of surface based CAPE
re-surging ahead of the front Sunday afternoon. Ample bulk shear and
a continue strong wind field could allow severe thunderstorms capable
of producing damaging winds, large hail, and possibly tornadoes to
develop. At this point there is some disagreement in model guidance
whether the tornado threat will be realized, as a few models show
very little helicity remaining ahead of the front. A good 1 to 2
inches of rainfall with some locally higher amounts looks possible
with this activity. Any linger isolated showers or thunderstorms
should push east into Georgia during the early evening hours. A wind
advisory in addition may be needed Sunday afternoon, as soundings
show the atmosphere mixing up to winds around 40 to 45 knots. Much
cooler air will push into the area behind the front, as lows drop
into the upper 30s to lower 40s by daybreak on Saturday.
 
18z NAM definitely the most ominous run yet for the Atlanta area Sunday afternoon/evening.

That being said, it's now the slowest model. GGEM has sped up some with the frontal passage.
 
Itll be interesting to see if this second wave develops because shear doesn't look to shabby and instability is around 2000+
 
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