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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

BirdManDoomW said:
Eh just too far out. Won’t even know 12 hours out if debris clouds ------ development.
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Unless you have something meaningful to add to this discussion, then stop posting garbage. The set-up as modeled looks ominous for a large number of folks. Lives and property are lost every Spring due to severe weather. So, if one person is saved by reading the discussions on here, then it is worth all the hype. We don't want you posting here. Go back to the other board .... oh that's right, you can't because they banned you!
 
Zander98al said:
Looks to be the worst setup this year for the south in terms of severe weather. EURO has the low almost below 1000mb which would be considered deep. If this thing gets below 1000mb mid april that's a red flag.
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Not quite, the setup that spawned the Lee county tornado was a good bit more dangerous than this one right now. Last nights Euro shifted back to a QLCS main threat instead of a supercell/tornado outbreak threat. Still ways to go though.
 
Arcc said:
Not quite, the setup that spawned the Lee county setup was a good bit more dangerous than this one right now. Last nights Euro shifted back to a QLCS main threat instead of a supercell/tornado threat. Still ways to go though.
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Lee county tornado system ... though didn’t look that impressive till short range came into play...then spc had to scramble last to upgrade a bit ... should been moderate threat be honest
 
That lee county tornado was just plain unlucky, the supercell was in the rain sheild and somehow found some inflow inside it creating a clearer area ahead of the ffd/RFD on radar, it did find that shear tho and LCLs were really really low
 
National weather service of birmingham put up a tornado risk 2 out of 5 for sunday on there hazardous severe outlook. Still a long way out from this happening though.

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tennessee storm said:
Lee county tornado system ... though didn’t look that impressive till short range came into play...then spc had to scramble last to upgrade a bit ... should been moderate threat be honest
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I disagree, the synoptics of that event were high end. Instability was the only question due to lack of an EML.
 
The 12z GFS makes the low 998-996 mb and dropping not a good thing that forecast pressure keeps dropping.
 
Still concerning, altho the gfs has a stronger trough/not much of a ULL nomore when max daytime heating occurs (18z) still could be a bad one and you can see the next system for next week 80CC461E-D26B-4FD0-B210-D915FE259975.jpeg
 
JP DICE on FB I'm not a fan of severe weather. In fact, I hate the stuff. Unfortunately, we have several opportunities at severe weather over the next week or so. First of all, I'm watching a potent system that will arrive late Saturday night into early Sunday morning. This system could bring damaging winds and tornadoes to the area. If that is not enough, we have another system next Wednesday, April 17th that looks potentially nasty. Between the two systems, the one next Wednesday looks stronger. I'm waiting for the higher resolution data to arrive before I get into the fine details. Could this change? Of course, it is weather and we could see things improve or get worse. I will admit I'm concerned enough about this weather I cancelled my trip to Florida to visit my mom.
 
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