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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

Windfields are screaming with the euro. Even if this happens over night a strong LLJ can bring in a good bit of moisture. Even without daytime heating.
 
From a NWS BMX WORKER ON FB

Ok folks...I hate to be a spoil-sport, but in the interest of safety and preparedness, need to get your attention regarding the potential for severe weather later Saturday and into Sunday.

It's WAAAY to early to pinpoint a specific time and location, but when you see a forecast for severe weather 4 or 5 days in advance, you know it has to be pretty convincing.

Keep an eye on the weather forecast for the next few days, and do me a favor: let someone you know and/or love about this threat. In today's world, there should be ZERO tolerance for someone not knowing it may be coming!

Go to weather.gov/bmx or your favorite weather source and keep up to date!

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NWS BMX has add a tornado threat to their HWO

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Sounding from north Louisiana, that is nasty, strongly veered sounding, EML, low LCLs, 3CAPE, modest lapse rates, SRH of 200-400 ms-2s, curved, but also large hodo, lots of sfc moisture, feels a little similar to that 2017 setup that gave Parts of NOLA/akers LA that strong tornado, still differences tho 23F41A38-7800-4B22-B3B4-C1569828EE0B.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Sounding from north Louisiana, that is nasty, strongly veered sounding, EML, low LCLs, 3CAPE, modest lapse rates, SRH of 200-400 ms-2s, curved, but also large hodo, lots of sfc moisture, feels a little similar to that 2017 setup that gave Parts of NOLA/akers LA that strong tornado, still differences tho View attachment 18707
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Once the NAM gets in range i imagine cape and SRH helicity will probably be higher. Should get in range by late tomorrow.
 
Do y'all think we may see a 30% risk outlined in the day 4-8 time period. Since confidence is so high? And models are so consistent. Its been a while since I've seen news stations so adamant about getting people to pay attention to this system. The last time i remember them doing this was leading up to the tornado outbreak in 2014 across alabama and mississippi.
 
FFC introduced the always-ominous “interested parties” wording in their AFD. That phrase always gets my attention.

“The front is expected to stall across central GA for Saturday. A
wave of low pressure will move east along the old front on Sunday,
with another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms expected.
Even this far out, there is some indications that thunderstorms will
have the potential to become strong/severe. Interested parties
should monitor later forecasts for updates.”
 
Zander98al said:
The 12z GFS makes the low 998-996 mb and dropping not a good thing that forecast pressure keeps dropping.
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It was also slower.

The front doesn't make it through here now until Sunday evening
PEA_RIDGE said:
NWS BMX has add a tornado threat to their HWO

9d20347c2b203916b0630b1ec2101e21.jpg


Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

They did mention the issue with timing (Saturday night), which could be the only thing that would prevent a morre significant event.

That being said, models have been trending slower/NW with more of a Sunday afternoon cold front passage for GA/SC.
 
2nd most concerning sounding I’ve prolly seen this year, Louisiana looks like it could take a punch from this system with good daytime heating, strong veering winds aloft, curved but large hodo, which is very concerning, 1000-2000 jkg of SBcape, SRH of 200-400 ms-2s, very low LCLs, EML, hate to see when the NAM increases instability for these areas F24E366C-E2E4-49B8-8881-B6F1705F75F5.png
 
STP and Supercell composite from the NAM is pretty high for saturday afternoon. Very dangerous setup. Nws says that itll be a QCLS moving through maybe with some embedded supercell or isolated ones for alabama.

Screenshot_20190410-072339_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190410-072321_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
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This is Cips analog guidance were it shows similar events and categorizes risk areas based of similar parameters. And it puts up a decent risk area
Screenshot_20190410-080030_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190410-080040_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
this sounding supports large wedge tornadoes in Louisiana, very dangerous sounding from the NAM, extreme amounts of helicity, lots of llvl shear, decent CAPE, strong veering winds aloft, very large and curved hodo, 3CAPE above 100 jkg, very low LCLs, like i said, this sounding supports strong, long track tornadoes
1554901775258.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
this sounding supports large wedge tornadoes in Louisiana, very dangerous sounding from the NAM, extreme amounts of helicity, lots of llvl shear, decent CAPE, strong veering winds aloft, very large and curved hodo, 3CAPE above 100 jkg, very low LCLs, like i said, this sounding supports strong, long track tornadoes
View attachment 18720
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Wouldn't be surprised if a moderate risk area is outlined tomorrow for that area if close range models continue with the threat. 12z nam is currently coming out waiting to see how it progresses.
 
I dare say parameters may still go up sadly. Just wait till the 3k nam gets into range ?. Were just seeing the begging of close range models come into forecast range.
 
These soundings are extremely concerning, larger CAPE now and fairly saturated low levels likely mean Mesos scraping the ground combined with low LCLs, this is actually more concerning than the soundings I saw with outbreak that produced the lee county tornado, still it depends on early morning convection, how messy convection gets, cloud cover, but these soundings have EMLs with them, anyways these sounding support 2+ inch hail, 70mph winds and strong/long track tornadoes, we might possibly see a moderate risk if trends hold E341F0A2-A816-4537-B8F9-AC9D7A70F0F3.pngAA1576C1-225F-4CD1-B807-3ADD96700AEF.png
 
It May turn into a qlcs later down the line but who knows. Higher resolution models as we get closer should answer it too a degree. Even if you have a qcls broken segments in it can still cause significant tornadoes.
 
From rich thomas in montgomery. From these pictures It certainly doesn't look like a squall line or anything on future radar.
Screenshot_20190410-112657_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190410-112709_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Models begin to differ on location of the surface low
but they seem to agree on the position of the cold front and the
deep moisture ahead of the front. The cold front will move into
Alabama Sunday morning and into Georgia Sunday evening. Moisture,
instability and shear increases over the CWA Sunday bringing the
risk of severe storms. This system pulls out of the CWA late Sunday
night with drying for the remainder of the long term.
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Here’s what FFC says.
 
12z euro has 996 mb low in the sweet spot for severe weather over alabama. Whether its a night time event or not the LLJ of this system will bring in moisture. Screenshot_20190410-131905_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
Zander98al said:
12z euro has 996 mb low in the sweet spot for severe weather over alabama. Whether its a night time event or not the LLJ of this system will bring in moisture. View attachment 18731
Click to expand...

It's not really a question of moisture, but instability.

Granted, given the shear/dynamics, it won't take a whole lot of instability.
 
SouthATLwx said:
It's not really a question of moisture, but instability.

Granted, given the shear/dynamics, it won't take a whole lot of instability.
Click to expand...
True, the 12z euro has over a 1000j of energy from around midnight to 7am sunday.
 
Is this a situation that would spare much of GA from a dangerous SVR threat? I don’t see much of a wedge forming on any of these models that typically spares I-20 & points north from bad storms, but for some reason,they always seem to fizzle a bit once they cross into GA from the West.

Full Disclosure: I’m more of a WinterWX guy than a SVR one, so I’m normally quick to trash the NAM because...well, reasons.
 
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