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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend

Showmeyourtds said:
Is this a situation that would spare much of GA from a dangerous SVR threat? I don’t see much of a wedge forming on any of these models that typically spares I-20 & points north from bad storms, but for some reason,they always seem to fizzle a bit once they cross into GA from the West.

Full Disclosure: I’m more of a WinterWX guy than a SVR one, so I’m normally quick to trash the NAM because...well, reasons.
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Too early to tell. Spc has a risk area defined for Georgia 5 days out so that's never a good sign.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Is this a situation that would spare much of GA from a dangerous SVR threat? I don’t see much of a wedge forming on any of these models that typically spares I-20 & points north from bad storms, but for some reason,they always seem to fizzle a bit once they cross into GA from the West.

Full Disclosure: I’m more of a WinterWX guy than a SVR one, so I’m normally quick to trash the NAM because...well, reasons.
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It depends on timing.

An early Sunday morning frontal passage would be the ideal scenario as far as reducing the risk, when daytime instability tends to be at its lowest.
 
Lets hope it doesn't verify then. Because thats a tornado outbreak look. ?
 
Showmeyourtds said:
Sorry for the weenie-esque nature, but is it reasonable to assume that these parameters would A) precede a frontal passage and B) if the answer to A is true, would these parameters advect east as well?
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Reason why GA might not get the worse weather and sometimes looses the stronger/rotating convection is becuase most of the time the trough goes into negative tilt around KY and rapidly lifts north, and there’s not strong enough blocking so the sfc low just ends up racing poleward along with the trough = we lose shear and some instability and just get multicellular convection/pulse convection or convective debris/weakening t-storms
 
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Snowflowxxl said:
Georgia will be getting into the action on Sunday, extent will be based on timing.
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Doesn't sound bad yet for GA.

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019

storms should continue to migrate eastward across Georgia and South
Carolina through D5/Sunday, though instability should be weaker with
eastward extent due to poor mid-level lapse rates.
 
SouthATLwx said:
GGEM slowed down the front even more. We end up getting smacked pretty good Sunday afternoon as a result.

That being said, the GFS sped things up a tad.
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Yep, idk about CAPE parameters but the GGEM yo me looks like a trade off for more instability and less 0-6km shear, still is solid but slows down and has a weaker LW trough, still concerning, gfs is much stronger with the longwave trough so wind energy would likely be maxed out
221E5D3B-DFF2-469F-9D9A-7275F94E5521.jpeg0BF80A81-263A-4516-A1DE-81E305AC72B5.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep, idk about CAPE parameters but the GGEM yo me looks like a trade off for more instability and less 0-6km shear, still is solid but slows down and has a weaker LW trough, still concerning, gfs is much stronger with the longwave trough so wind energy would likely be maxed out
View attachment 18733View attachment 18734
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I''d take that trade off.
 
Instability doesn't look that impressive for alabama overnight but dew points look to be in the mid to upper 60s so i imagine cape will be a little higher than the 500j the gfs shows.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
These soundings are extremely concerning, larger CAPE now and fairly saturated low levels likely mean Mesos scraping the ground combined with low LCLs, this is actually more concerning than the soundings I saw with outbreak that produced the lee county tornado, still it depends on early morning convection, how messy convection gets, cloud cover, but these soundings have EMLs with them, anyways these sounding support 2+ inch hail, 70mph winds and strong/long track tornadoes, we might possibly see a moderate risk if trends hold View attachment 18723View attachment 18724
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Really depends on if things can stay discrete. With that meager EML, lack of cap and very strong SSW winds aloft almost parallel to the front I have my doubts.

In the past it seems to me areas far removed from where you would expect gets nailed by the early supercells in these types of setups. Id watch central MS early for the surprise.
 
Very true
Arcc said:
Really depends on if things can stay discrete. With that meager EML, lack of cap and very strong SSW winds aloft almost parallel to the front I have my doubts.

In the past it seems to me areas far removed from where you would expect gets nailed by the early supercells in these types of setups. Id watch central MS early for the surprise.
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The situation reminds me of the tornado event 7 years ago that hit alabama when we had very high shear but around 1000j of instability or less. Which produced a ef-3 tornado during the night. But with this event its better synoptically than that one.
 
One thing is, im not buying a complete squall line coming through alabama. But will see. Any little broken segment in it will spin though. Screenshot_20190410-220745_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
We got a day 3 enhanced

...East Texas through western Alabama...
Models indicate ongoing convection at the start of the period across
north Texas, which may pose a risk for hail given steep mid-level
lapse rates in that area. Through the day, storms will gradually
become more widespread across Arkansas and Louisiana through midday
and toward evening. Weak to moderate buoyancy, strong deep shear,
and backed low-level winds will favor all modes of severe, with
tornadoes and damaging wind gusts being the primary threats.
Particularly concerning is the hint in nearly all guidance that
convection will develop within the free warm sector well removed
from any fronts during peak heating hours. This scenario would
likely result in potential for several tornadoes (a few significant)
and damaging wind gusts assuming instability profiles verify as
currently progged. Concerns remain regarding timing of the wave and
subsequent convective development, with an overall westward trend
apparent in convective evolution compared to yesterday's runs. Some
continued disagreement also exists in most recent guidance with
regard to eastward progression of convection. Instability may also
become a limiting factor if too many storms form and result in
unfavorable storm-scale interactions. Nevertheless, a synoptically
evident severe weather episode appears likely to unfold - especially
within the Enhanced Risk area.
 
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It looks like EURO has also slowed down Sunday's cold front a bit. Now just need the GFS/NAM to play ball.

It's a joke of a model, but what the NAVY has been showing consistently would be the most ideal solution.
 
First sounding from north Louisiana, second from central, first one is more concerning, classic EML that’s decently strong but won’t cap convection the whole day as strong forcing combined with SFC temps heating up will easily break this, than that classic near dry adiabatic lapse rate, would likely cause strong updrafts, very large hail, some tornadoes and those hodos have been hugely curved 242BCC59-FE4B-46A5-A42D-C435F5E9B567.pngA989E958-5A3C-470E-94A7-3542140A8D09.png
 
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