Jrips2710
Member
and here’s the new Day 3 featuring a large enhanced area and concerning write up 
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Severe Severe potential April 13th-15th Palm Sunday Weekend
- Thread starter Darklordsuperstorm
- Start date
Scott81
Member
Wow, I didnt think it would be that far east.it skipped most of AL.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Not good! ... there will be no damming wedge in place to save us folks east of the mountains this time.
Claycochaser
Member
Doesnt appear to skip Alabama at all. The whole state is under a slight risk during the period which is all that is warranted attm.
Snowflowxxl
Member
45% hatched within the moderate as well
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Bmx appears to be more impressed
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I'll be driving into the enhanced area Sunday. Taking the family to Pigeon Forge and Dollywood for a couple of days over Spring Break. Hope we get there before the storms start.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Personally, I think there really isn't that much difference between marginal and slight, and between enhanced and moderate. I think it would be better if they just used slight, moderate, and high for the categories.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I think enhanced and marginal were created as buffer categories so that way would prevent major busts. If they aren't sure if an area will have stronger or weaker storms, they will add either that fits in case a few severe storms become either very few to none or a larger group of them.
Lol there was no wedge with the last enhanced risk. Honestly, looking at this setup, it doesn’t look ideal for western NC. Very moist ground and rainy leading up to it will likely produce at least some clouds/fog to stint instability. I see a greater risk of some flooding.
This threat is definitely different than the last one .. would take it more serious given we’re getting enhanced on a day 3 and not a day 1
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Sunday has my attention...
"80 to 100 kt south-southwest flow at mid levels...Primary storm mode is progged to be banded/loosely linear, with embedded/complex bows and rotating updrafts."
"80 to 100 kt south-southwest flow at mid levels...Primary storm mode is progged to be banded/loosely linear, with embedded/complex bows and rotating updrafts."
This time there’s much stronger wind energy, if storms don’t get torn apart, there will likely be some rotating storms
NAM is looking bad for Saturday. It's been doing that nonstop ever since it got into range.
Snowflowxxl
Member
12z NAM the worst run yet for Louisiana Saturday. How this is somehow still trending up is beyond me.
I don't think I have ever seen it that high.
These soundings are sickening, if supercells find open areas with no influence, large, violent tornadoes are likely 
That’s a insane hodo, holy f**king sh*t
Honestly using EHI 1KM-3KM has me finding horrid soundings
Snowflowxxl
Member
This only goes through 23z things are still going strong
This one is looking plain BAD for Louisiana.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Not good
Goodness
Literally a line of violent supercells, that gives me chills
Snowflowxxl
Member
I'm gonna have to be weather aware on Sunday.
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Zander98al
Guest
Long range HRRR has off the charts literally STP values over lousianna
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Zander98al
Guest
Jesus
HOLY CRAP!
Hrrr soundings tommorow is just pure violent 
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Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks awful for Louisiana tomorrow. Wish we had some posters from there. I don't think they are used to having tornadoes there, either.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Oof ouchies.
This is nuts:
This is a fun Sunday afternoon drive (not really and it includes more than this frame) in which I wonder if I should suck it up and push leaving as soon as possible:
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Zander98al
Guest
I don't think alabama is out of the risk on this system we won't have it as bad. But nws of bham like i was talking about yesterday they're unsure how much instability will be there. Ive always thought that models are under doing it a tad bit. Because they're a strong LLJ. And dew points are in the upper 60s. 
Loganatorh
Member
I'm obviously very new here, but the general vibe in arklatex is complacency with severe weather because, while we do get some nasty storms, we don't really see the worst mother nature has to offer. I remember a few years ago there was a high risk day setup similar to this system, and it (thankfully) did not turn out as dire as it seemed. I worry people won't take a PDS severe threat seriously around here. (Again I am very new here and am only just beginning to seriously look into learning a lot about severe weather but just thought I'd offer input from the area).
Some interesting line segments forming in South Carolina moving into NC ... could be interesting a bit later
Little kink/dogleg in the line aswell, has a little axis of 200 ms2-s SRH, this radar ain’t the best so I can’t really tell if that’s rotation
DizzyDave45
Member
Northwest Louisiana here. I know i'm keeping all my people alert about the potential for Saturday. Tornadoes are fairly common around here, but it's been a while since we've had a major tornado. 1999 comes to mind. F4 tornado left 7 dead as it tore through north Bossier and Benton. Had a weak one last year that ran though Shreveport/Bossier killing a small child.
I hear lots of chasers are coming down so that tells me it's going to be bad lol. Everybody hates chasing down here. If you're down here chasing, I-49 north of Shreveport is decent.. has some semi flat land and decent viewing, FWIW.
I hear lots of chasers are coming down so that tells me it's going to be bad lol. Everybody hates chasing down here. If you're down here chasing, I-49 north of Shreveport is decent.. has some semi flat land and decent viewing, FWIW.
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Zander98al
Guest
Storm chasing is so dangerous in the south unfortunately. If anybody goes they better know how to navigate because potential exists for some wicked tornadoes.