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September Sizzling Summer Segway

Tarheel1

Tarheel1

I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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So I’m honored to start a thread, it’s been quite awhile! September Segway’s into fall, even though most still torch and it’s usually very dry, avg highs start going down, days get shorter, we all start thinking about winter outlooks! Tropics look to remain active, temps don’t look too ridiculous, happy fall y’all
 
Tarheel1 said:
So I’m honored to start a thread, it’s been quite awhile! September Segway’s into fall, even though most still torch and it’s usually very dry, avg highs start going down, days get shorter, we all start thinking about winter outlooks! Tropics look to remain active, temps don’t look too ridiculous, happy fall y’all
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* segue
 
Tarheel1 said:
So I’m honored to start a thread, it’s been quite awhile! September Segway’s into fall, even though most still torch and it’s usually very dry, avg highs start going down, days get shorter, we all start thinking about winter outlooks! Tropics look to remain active, temps don’t look too ridiculous, happy fall y’all
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At least you didn't repeat the name exactly like we named our September thread in 2017. August was already repeated.
 
EmersonGA said:
En ingles por favor?
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Rising AAM and the GWO moving out of the circumglobal ridges/nina phases. Maybe we won't see as much of the WAR nosing in and subtropical ridging that we have seen in the last 2 Septembers and more of what we expect September to be if we get really lucky maybe a legit front. Issue is though with models starting to show Nana in the Atlantic these effects may be too late
 
SD said:
Rising AAM and the GWO moving out of the circumglobal ridges/nina phases. Maybe we won't see as much of the WAR nosing in and subtropical ridging that we have seen in the last 2 Septembers and more of what we expect September to be if we get really lucky maybe a legit front. Issue is though with models starting to show Nana in the Atlantic these effects may be too late
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From a total nerd alert perspective when you look at the NHEM over the next 10 days you can see the effect of the tropics with Laura enhancing the trough exiting the EC then the recurving typhoon and its downstream effects with the big trough in Canada by d10
 
SD said:
Rising AAM and the GWO moving out of the circumglobal ridges/nina phases. Maybe we won't see as much of the WAR nosing in and subtropical ridging that we have seen in the last 2 Septembers and more of what we expect September to be if we get really lucky maybe a legit front. Issue is though with models starting to show Nana in the Atlantic these effects may be too late
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Last fall was brutal. There would be significant frontal boundaries that sagged to our northwest and stalled out. We finally cooled off with a CAD event. So lame.


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ATLwxfan said:
Last fall was brutal. There would be significant frontal boundaries that sagged to our northwest and stalled out. We finally cooled off with a CAD event. So lame.


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Yeah the state fair was humid until the last few days.


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Just for fun, take a look at the 0z CFS. It would indicate that September may actually have real fall weather. There are multiple cool downs with dewpoints falling into the 40s and 50s. This would be a great change from the last couple of years.
www.pivotalweather.com

Models: CFS - Pivotal Weather

View CFS weather model forecast map image for Precipitation Type, Rate in Continental US on pivotalweather.com.
www.pivotalweather.com www.pivotalweather.com
 
Hmmmm

Laura breaks the summer pattern?

It does appear that a pattern shift will begin to take shape this
weekend through early next week with the persistent Western US
upper ridge breaking down due to the arrival of a fall like upper
trough from the Pacific Northwest. This system is progged to
deepen across the Plains Monday through Wednesday sending the
first notable cold front in quite some time southward across the
Central and Southern Plains. It is much too early to break out
the sweaters, but below normal temperatures and increased rain
chances are a possibility as we head into the first few days of
September.
 
SD said:
Rolling into fall like
View attachment 47345
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Nah. More like this.

8542b9c96805271769645e1564b30c88.jpg
 
Let’s segue into Segways! Love seeing 40s and 50s on the maps in fantasy land! ?
 
CADEffect said:
“Cool shots failing to penetrate into the Southeast”
That won’t be the last time we say that


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Why can I only upvote this once...

It'll be the story of the winter. How do I know this so far in advance?? Because it's the story of every winter...
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
[QUOTEs="CADEffect, post: 315895, member: 1423"]
Honestly, though Hurricane season is just getting started. You guys remember 05 and how late fall started.


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I don't remember fall starting late in 2005 but i do remember in 2002 fall took forever to get here. I don't think we had our first big cooldown until at least Mid October in 2002.[/QUOTE]

I used 05 because that was the last time we had a very active hurricane season. We even went to the Greek alphabet.


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CADEffect said:
Honestly, though Hurricane season is just getting started. You guys remember 05 and how late fall started.


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I don't remember 2005 but i do remember in 2002 it took forever for fall to get here. I think we had our first big cool down in Mid October in 2002.
 
Subtropical ridge wins more than it loses for the first 10-14 days, maybe a short break around 9/4-5 due to a typhoon recurve. AAM bottoms out 9/1 then starts to rise through mid month. Combine that with another potential typhoon recurve 9/10 ish we may be looking at a better pattern by 9/15
 
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