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Wintry Saturday 12/17 light ice threat

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Starburst link said:
Don't think the 18z GFS will do much if anything with the ice.
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Just a little different:
963ca14c01d8046ed1b18969bb7f92e2.jpg



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Well, we have the 18z NAM (12km) getting a bit icier.  The Euro alluding to some more moisture.. there's a chance.  Even down here in Columbia, SC, our forecast office introduced freezing drizzle to parts of the area.  Guess we'll know better come Friday morning.

here is what my local office says recently:
Given cold air in place and increasing moisture, have continued low
chance for freezing rain or drizzle across the western and northern
portions of the CWA early Saturday morning. Models indicate cold air
at the surface with a warm nose aloft. At this point it appears as
if QPF amounts will remain very light...a few hundredths of an
inch at most.
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GSP's take on the event..... Might get a "Freezing Rain Advisory" out of it

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday: Operational and ensemble guidance still in
good agreement on the upcoming forecast. Still looks like a short
lived light icing event develops Friday night and early Saturday.
Still can`t rule out some thunder, and possibly QLCS storms, south
of I-85 Sunday afternoon. Then below normal temps with a light,
generally cold rain through Tuesday.

The guidance is still progressive with the upper and surface
features Saturday. The very cold and dry air mass in place at the
start of the period will lead to freezing rain as moisture and
precip move in on increasing isentropic lift Friday night. The lift
continues Saturday morning before diminishing during the afternoon.
The upper and surface patterns are still unfavorable for a classical
damming event. Therefore, without a continuous feed of cold, dry
surface air, temps will be able to gradually warm through the day
Saturday changing the freezing rain to rain. Cannot rule out some
sleet at onset, but expect the bulk of the precip to be freezing
rain to rain. With the light QPF expected, any ice accretion will be
less than a tenth of an inch. Without the cold air locking into
place, melting should occur through the afternoon as well.[/u]
 
I'm thinking the Monday - Wednesday threat, will be for mainly TN, I think the Carolinas are out of play. Having rain already there and waiting for the cold to bleed in and changeover to frozen, is not a good situation, doesn't like to work out.
 
2015 ice event was said to not be too impressive. I was sitting in my car and saw a tiny ice cycle forming on my birdfeeder AS the weather on radio was saying "we dodged a bullet"! The end result was my profile pic!! Wonder my chickens all survived. I couldn't figure out how to add a pic in this post.
 
Tarheel1 link said:
I'm thinking the Monday - Wednesday threat, will be for mainly TN, I think the Carolinas are out of play. Having rain already there and waiting for the cold to bleed in and changeover to frozen, is not a good situation, doesn't like to work out.
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It'll be interesting for NC since winds veer to the north versus NW so it might be easier to force lower dewpoints and cooler air southward in the wedge zone

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Gfs says Saturday is a Raleigh and Charlotte special
8432a56ecfd584ba7158b512812e4545.jpg


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Does anyone see any similarities with the saturday morning system and with the link I provided? Both have CAD at the sfc with very strong WAA aloft, precip started early in the morning and locked in the CAD. It hit the mid 60s in Birmingham and stayed in the upper 20s/lower 30s at my location all day. Maybe it's a totally different setup but looks very similar to me. Anyone wanna chime in?

http://www.weather.gov/ffc/icestorm_01252013
 
CummingWx link said:
Does anyone see any similarities with the saturday morning system and with the link I provided? Both have CAD at the sfc with very strong WAA aloft, precip started early in the morning and locked in the CAD. It hit the mid 60s in Birmingham and stayed in the upper 20s/lower 30s at my location all day. Maybe it's a totally different setup but looks very similar to me. Anyone wanna chime in?

http://www.weather.gov/ffc/icestorm_01252013
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It'll be interesting. The initial conditions are fairly cold and dry but the Euro and GFS start warming up pretty quickly and its a brief period of light freezing drizzle/rain. At this point it's wait and see as far as quickly the wedge will erode like always. I honestly though don't think many areas will see as much precip as the event above. This looks more like a .1 or less type of event.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=46.msg1878#msg1878 date=1481675840]
Does anyone see any similarities with the saturday morning system and with the link I provided? Both have CAD at the sfc with very strong WAA aloft, precip started early in the morning and locked in the CAD. It hit the mid 60s in Birmingham and stayed in the upper 20s/lower 30s at my location all day. Maybe it's a totally different setup but looks very similar to me. Anyone wanna chime in?

http://www.weather.gov/ffc/icestorm_01252013
Click to expand...

It'll be interesting. The initial conditions are fairly cold and dry but the Euro and GFS start warming up pretty quickly and its a brief period of light freezing drizzle/rain. At this point it's wait and see as far as quickly the wedge will erode like always. I honestly though don't think many areas will see as much precip as the event above. This looks more like a .1 or less type of event.
[/quote]

That's the most important part there. Initial conditions will be cold and dry to start, so if we can manage precip to fall into that kind of cold and dry airmass early enough before any possible solar heating, I think there could be alot of surprises, also temperature-wise as it doesn't warm as fast as all forecasts would indicate. CAD is VERY tough to predict and erode, especially if it's locked in, and what can strengthen it is strong WAA aloft. CAD is all about the inversion. Of course, the edges would be eroded but for those in prime CAD areas, it's VERY tough to get the wedge to erode. I just think if precip starts early enough, we have a chance.
 
Winter is never complete w/o viewing the DGEX snow totals once or twice a winter...LOL! What a waste of a model...JUST FOR FUN....
8aba8704c32674488c62d14671eda385.jpg



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whatalife link said:
Winter is never complete w/o viewing the DGEX snow totals once or twice a winter...LOL! What a waste of a model...JUST FOR FUN....
8aba8704c32674488c62d14671eda385.jpg



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thank god for the dgex the best model porn around

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Storm5 link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=46.msg1884#msg1884 date=1481677025]
Winter is never complete w/o viewing the DGEX snow totals once or twice a winter...LOL! What a waste of a model...JUST FOR FUN....
8aba8704c32674488c62d14671eda385.jpg



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Click to expand...
thank god for the dgex the best model porn around

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[/quote]
LOL!


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Supershow link said:
84 hour 0Z NAM
890caa57503f95d624e333307c229253.jpg



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That's awesome! Too bad it's the NAM! Not the most accurate of models, but fun to look at! Bet the GFS here in a bit, looks nothing like this
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=Supershow link=topic=46.msg1902#msg1902 date=1481683628]
84 hour 0Z NAM
890caa57503f95d624e333307c229253.jpg



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That's awesome! Too bad it's the NAM! Not the most accurate of models, but fun to look at! Bet the GFS here in a bit, looks nothing like this
[/quote]
So true...


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whatalife link said:
This is to close for comfort...I hate ice!


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Yeah, dews chilly.  Lexington isn't out of the woods by any means, but looks like Upstate and North of there in SC better chances.
 
Starburst link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=46.msg1903#msg1903 date=1481683682]
This is to close for comfort...I hate ice!


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Yeah, dews chilly.  Lexington isn't out of the woods by any means, but looks like Upstate and North of there in SC better chances.
[/quote]

Hoping it's the Nam just being the Nam...


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=46.msg1908#msg1908 date=1481684188]
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=46.msg1903#msg1903 date=1481683682]
This is to close for comfort...I hate ice!


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Click to expand...

Yeah, dews chilly.  Lexington isn't out of the woods by any means, but looks like Upstate and North of there in SC better chances.
[/quote]

Hoping it's the Nam just being the Nam...


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[/quote]
DP Temps at hour 84 NAM
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Freezing rain can be really tricky around here. All it takes is more precip or it to last longer than expected to cause problems. I remember once getting stuck on a school bus and having a sheriff 's deputy take me home because of freezing rain that caused havoc on the roads when it was forecasted to just be a cold rain.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Freezing rain can be really tricky around here. All it takes is more precip or it to last longer than expected to cause problems. I remember once getting stuck on a school bus and having a sheriff 's deputy take me home because of freezing rain that caused havoc on the roads when it was forecasted to just be a cold rain.
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Thank God this is a Saturday morning deal. I can't handle the I40 construction zone when it's perfect weather

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Really minus any driving issues under .25 is ok freezing rain. Beatiful to look at limbs wrapped in ice. Now when you get up to .5 and beyond your getting out of my comfort zone due to power losses.
 
The GFS is complete trash w/ this one IMO... The changes in dew points and surface temperatures look unrealistically too warm & it erodes the CAD very quickly (& unrealistically fast @ that) in comparison to the NAM & CMC. IMO, once you're inside 4 days or so & once the CMC actually figures out what's going on synoptically, it's one of the best performing models during CAD, but again that relies on the former being true which is sometimes not the case.
 
06z NAM little by little trying to get the ice down this way and bit more in other areas.  ugh.

image removed - wrong run.
 
NWS uses the WPC ice guidance which shows the highest probs of at least a tenth of an inch or more for most of Forsyth County to far eastern Wilkes County, NC.

60 to 70% probs for at least a glaze are highest from the northern foothills (Surry/Wilkes) down to (Cleveland/Rutherford).

There are also decent probs for upstate SC and north-east Georgia of around 50-60% chances.

These are the areas that withstand the best chance of winter weather products.
 
Lol, the GFS is such a joke w/ CAD Like the dew point is going to rise ~45F in 12 HR in Raleigh... I'm almost tempted to completely disregard it for early next week's threat...

gfs_Td2m_seus_13.png


gfs_Td2m_seus_14.png


gfs_Td2m_seus_15.png
 
bigstick10 link said:
Really, why in the Hell does everyone want an ice storm???????????? Grow up kiddies...
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I solely made this account to just tell you that you are a troll. Also, it is December...put a shirt on or your nips will suffer dearly.
 
I think the GFS is doing a good job on the CAD area where it will struggle to go above freezing last, matches the WPC to the nose. This will be Winston-Salem west.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121406/gfs_T2m_seus_14.png

If I was further east toward RAL I don't think the DP matters as much with marginable temps and lack of sig. precip to take advantage of evap. cooling; it will be rising fairly quickly post 6z.

The GFS is not doing terrible IMO, it just isn't showing the Winter Storm Watch criteria we all want.
 
WilkesboroDude link said:
I think the GFS is doing a good job on the CAD area where it will struggle to go above freezing last, matches the WPC to the nose. This will be Winston-Salem west.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121406/gfs_T2m_seus_14.png

If I was further east toward RAL I don't think the DP matters as much with marginable temps and lack of sig. precip to take advantage of evap. cooling; it will be rising fairly quickly post 6z.

The GFS is not doing terrible IMO, it just isn't showing the Winter Storm Watch criteria we all want.
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The GFS is doing horribly with this ice situation and all Ice events! I'd take the NAM over GFS, all day , everyday!
 
bigstick10 link said:
[quote author=MiddleTNWx link=topic=46.msg1968#msg1968 date=1481717863]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=46.msg1963#msg1963 date=1481714212]
Really, why in the Hell does everyone want an ice storm???????????? Grow up kiddies...
Click to expand...

I solely made this account to just tell you that you are a troll. Also, it is December...put a shirt on or your nips will suffer dearly.
[/quote]

Merry Christmas to you too. Well, calling me a troll makes you one as well.  Thanks
[/quote]

Hi guys...
We get it, some people think its crazy to wish for ice storms/hurricanes/tornadoes/hail/heat/winning the lottery but posting about it doesn't change their thoughts.

We also get that he doesn't have a shirt on obviously he doesn't want to wear one.

Can we just get past this stuff and talk about the weather. If you guys want to call each other trolls PM/OT are more than fair game.
 
Now it would be funny if this turns out being a bigger deal than next week's threat.
 
southernskimmer link said:
I always say I don't want ice until it's about to happen and I still get excited.
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That is how I am too. Now if we are talking a lot of ice (1/2"+), then no thank you. Lol
 
I'll take just enough to close work but to keep the power on. :)
 
I hate seeing people mess up their cars. It's easier to sled on but that's about it.

There will be a plenty of wrecks due to arctic cold air the days leading up to this light precipitation. Expect some dangerous bridges and elevated surfaces esp. north-west NC.
 
12km NAM looks a few degrees colder thru 45 HR virtually everywhere in the SE US, but we'll see how this translates (if @ all) into Sat
 
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