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Wintry Saturday 12/17 light ice threat

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If this morning was any precursor or indicator...there were numerous cars off the road in Ashe, Watauga, and Wilkes Counties due to freezing drizzle and fog. And now this arctic blast will be even colder on top of adding communities that are less skilled (if there is skill of driving on ice) into the mix.

Therefore, Brick, I have no doubt this event will likely be greater than next week due to the surface conditions being more supportive at least at this time.

Next week event, if there is one, seems a bit different esp. for RAL seeing how they could see 60s and 70s that will have an affect on surface conditions.

I hope all that makes sense.

- Casey
 
Certainly can't rule out a few flurries/sleet pellets on the very front edge of this system esp north of HWY 64...

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NWS MEG mentions all snow for my neck of the woods, if the cold air can catch the precip in time. As of now, Saturday night shows "snow likely" here in Paris TN, with a high Sunday of 27. Obviously not a classic setup for much snow, but not an ice threat here either.
 
Sorry guys if this sounds redundant, but does anyone have a qpf map from euro showing precip in 6-12hr increments for hrs96-114. Thanks For arkansas area
 
NWTENN link said:
NWS MEG mentions all snow for my neck of the woods, if the cold air can catch the precip in time. As of now, Saturday night shows "snow likely" here in Paris TN, with a high Sunday of 27. Obviously not a classic setup for much snow, but not an ice threat here either.
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The funny thing is the models show more freezing rain and sleet for west and middle tn than they do snow.
 
SREF plumes are slowly increasing ZR chances for a good part of central/west NC. GFS looks similar to 6z
 
SD link said:
SREF plumes are slowly increasing ZR chances for a good part of central/west NC. GFS looks similar to 6z
Click to expand...
If we can get enough moisture to make it to the ground , the western Carolinas could be pretty rough!
 
Only thing is it will be so dry I wonder how long it will take for precip to actually reach the ground.
 
Alright so I did a little markup on the experts analysis from the WPC.

The guys there are not local but they still generally know their CAD business. I will be watching this climo area closely in case extra moisture can find its way to the surface there sooner and in abundance. The mountains here (even Stone Mountain and the Brushy Mountains in the foothills) help keep the cold rain intrusions at bay a little longer. I could go a little more in detail for the foothills but that would really be very microclimate backyard junk so just keeping in general.

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Supershow link said:
Hour 78
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Click to expand...
Not much to show from 12Z after this point for this time period...cold push not quite as much to the south (couple degrees warmer)
 
Mrgolf link said:
Sorry guys if this sounds redundant, but does anyone have a qpf map from euro showing precip in 6-12hr increments for hrs96-114. Thanks For arkansas area
Click to expand...
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Canadian a little colder for Sunday than GFS - Bham 6pm temp is 37GFS and 31CMC
 
Almost all guidance thus far (minus the NAM) looks warmer in their 12z runs, although I'm not entirely sure how much I buy that. Eventually, given the lack of large, sprawling surface high over New England, & tremendous WAA, the in-situ wedge will erode & temps (especially in the coastal plain & piedmont) should spike into the 60s, but they may be forecasting this to occur a little too quickly (as usual)...
 
12z Euro a tick colder maybe for W NC and NE GA early Sat
LP 3 millibars lower - a little slower - avg 2 or 3 degrees warmer up stream behind front
 
18z NAM showing life beginning late Friday
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Saturday morning will be very interesting, especially for my area (I'm right on the fringe of the freezing line) from these maps. I'm guessing if the precip can lock the cold air in, there will be an incredible temperature gradient on Saturday afternoon between say Atlanta and Gainesville as the strong WAA surges NEward through Atlanta and puts up a fight with the wedge. In this kind of situation, the battle zone for the wedge is often around the northern perimeter or a little north of there. There will likely be 60s on the south side and 30s on the north side.
 
NAM is way too close even down here into my area.  Upstate might get hit pretty good if moisture isn't being modeled correctly.
 
Starburst link said:
NAM is way too close even down here into my area.  Upstate might get hit pretty good if moisture isn't being modeled correctly.
Click to expand...

Not that desperate for a winter storm...LOL!


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=46.msg2067#msg2067 date=1481751084]
NAM is way too close even down here into my area.  Upstate might get hit pretty good if moisture isn't being modeled correctly.
Click to expand...

Not that desperate for a winter storm...LOL!


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[/quote]

Thankfully for us, precip is extremely light if any at all with the dry air in place.  We will probably be fine with a virga storm on this one before it warms up.
 
Starburst link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=46.msg2071#msg2071 date=1481754158]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=46.msg2067#msg2067 date=1481751084]
NAM is way too close even down here into my area.  Upstate might get hit pretty good if moisture isn't being modeled correctly.
Click to expand...

Not that desperate for a winter storm...LOL!


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[/quote]

Thankfully for us, precip is extremely light if any at all with the dry air in place.  We will probably be fine with a virga storm on this one before it warms up.
[/quote]

Yep.


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For those in metero ATL, you may want to keep on an eye on this.
NWS FFC
Areas toward metro ATL and AHN need to closely monitor the
forecast...although precip will likely be light...wet bulbing
could bring temps down enough to see some freezing precip for a
brief period.
 
I think the main issue will be lack of precip vs the strength of the wedge?
 
GainesvilleWX link said:
I think the main issue will be lack of precip vs the strength of the wedge?
Click to expand...
Same here.... It's not the cold air, it's the QPF that will limit the severity.
 
Cad Wedge NC link said:
[quote author=GainesvilleWX link=topic=46.msg2089#msg2089 date=1481763671]
I think the main issue will be lack of precip vs the strength of the wedge?
Click to expand...
Same here.... It's not the cold air, it's the QPF that will limit the severity.
[/quote]

Yep if precip came in earlier and we got more of it, it would have possibly been a big deal. I may be wrong, but I don't see the GSP metro getting to 40 on Sat. I'm thinking 34-35 at best and that could be too high IF precip is heavy enough to get us down to the wetbulb temp. Up your way it'll probably reach 33-34 at best and maybe only 31-32 if precip is heavier. Of course if precip is very light and or patchy both of us could see 40 by late Sat.
 
JHS link said:
[quote author=Cad Wedge NC link=topic=46.msg2096#msg2096 date=1481765163]
[quote author=GainesvilleWX link=topic=46.msg2089#msg2089 date=1481763671]
I think the main issue will be lack of precip vs the strength of the wedge?
Click to expand...
Same here.... It's not the cold air, it's the QPF that will limit the severity.
[/quote]

Yep if precip came in earlier and we got more of it, it would have possibly been a big deal. I may be wrong, but I don't see the GSP metro getting to 40 on Sat. I'm thinking 34-35 at best and that could be too high IF precip is heavy enough to get us down to the wetbulb temp. Up your way it'll probably reach 33-34 at best and maybe only 31-32 if precip is heavier. Of course if precip is very light and or patchy both of us could see 40 by late Sat.
[/quote]
I agree. I remember last February our area had a close call. It stayed about 30 all day, but by the time the precip arrived the WAA was to strong for a significant event. I still remember the southern suburbs of Atlanta being close to 80 while Gainesville was 32. The wedge is hard to break.
 
NAM wants to get me excited about snow flurries Friday afternoon

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Increased accumulations per 0Z NAM for some areas.

0Z NAM:
zr_acc.us_se.png


18Z NAM:
zr_acc.us_se.png
 
I think a trace - .05" of freezing drizzle/light freezing rain seems like a good call for now in the east-central piedmont and coastal plain of NC, I could see areas near & just northwest of the Triad close to the blue ridge escarpment picking up near or just over 0.1" of ZR.
 
Webberweather53 link said:
I think a trace - .05" of freezing drizzle/light freezing rain seems like a good call for now in the east-central piedmont and coastal plain of NC, I could see areas near & just northwest of the Triad close to the blue ridge escarpment picking up near or just over 0.1" of ZR.
Click to expand...

I disagree don't think there will be many .1" ZR totals around north-west NC close to the escarpment. In fact, no freezing rain advisory is planned due to snow/sleet onset. Currently NWS Blacksburg is advertising a little snow for the MTNS and a little sleet accum. for the Foothills with already limited moisture this will keep ZR totals way down IMO. I expect a Winter Weather Advisory for my backyard.
 
This is a unique setup where the foothills will changeover after the mountains if any snow flurries/sleet pellets do materialize. I think the northern foothills have a run at some whiteness/crunchy on the ground and no doubt some covered car tops and windows. My current thinking is a dusting of snow/sleet bag to very light minor glaze from drizzle.
 
Looks like the forecast in my area is up to 60 on Saturday. I'll be surprised if that verifies.
 
So it looks like this threat all depends on the amount of precip we get, while the one next week looks like it depends on the temps because there will be plenty of precip.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
So it looks like this threat all depends on the amount of precip we get, while the one next week looks like it depends on the temps because there will be plenty of precip.
Click to expand...

Basically. Precip totals have always been the real question mark with this one. If anything it looks like there might be a trend upward but that's very slight
 
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