Wintry Saturday 12/17 light ice threat

[Supershow]

Don't think the 18z GFS will do much if anything with the ice.

Just a little different:

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[Shawn]

Well, we have the 18z NAM (12km) getting a bit icier.  The Euro alluding to some more moisture.. there's a chance.  Even down here in Columbia, SC, our forecast office introduced freezing drizzle to parts of the area.  Guess we'll know better come Friday morning.

here is what my local office says recently:

Given cold air in place and increasing moisture, have continued low
chance for freezing rain or drizzle across the western and northern
portions of the CWA early Saturday morning. Models indicate cold air
at the surface with a warm nose aloft. At this point it appears as
if QPF amounts will remain very light...a few hundredths of an
inch at most.

 

[Supershow]

Here is 18z GFS for Sunday

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[Cad Wedge NC]

GSP's take on the event..... Might get a "Freezing Rain Advisory" out of it

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday: Operational and ensemble guidance still in
good agreement on the upcoming forecast. Still looks like a short
lived light icing event develops Friday night and early Saturday.
Still can`t rule out some thunder, and possibly QLCS storms, south
of I-85 Sunday afternoon. Then below normal temps with a light,
generally cold rain through Tuesday.

The guidance is still progressive with the upper and surface
features Saturday. The very cold and dry air mass in place at the
start of the period will lead to freezing rain as moisture and
precip move in on increasing isentropic lift Friday night. The lift
continues Saturday morning before diminishing during the afternoon.
The upper and surface patterns are still unfavorable for a classical
damming event. Therefore, without a continuous feed of cold, dry
surface air, temps will be able to gradually warm through the day
Saturday changing the freezing rain to rain. Cannot rule out some
sleet at onset, but expect the bulk of the precip to be freezing
rain to rain. With the light QPF expected, any ice accretion will be
less than a tenth of an inch. Without the cold air locking into
place, melting should occur through the afternoon as well.[/u]

 

[Tarheel1]

I'm thinking the Monday - Wednesday threat, will be for mainly TN, I think the Carolinas are out of play. Having rain already there and waiting for the cold to bleed in and changeover to frozen, is not a good situation, doesn't like to work out.

 

[Wildboutsnow]

2015 ice event was said to not be too impressive. I was sitting in my car and saw a tiny ice cycle forming on my birdfeeder AS the weather on radio was saying "we dodged a bullet"! The end result was my profile pic!! Wonder my chickens all survived. I couldn't figure out how to add a pic in this post.

 

[SD]

I'm thinking the Monday - Wednesday threat, will be for mainly TN, I think the Carolinas are out of play. Having rain already there and waiting for the cold to bleed in and changeover to frozen, is not a good situation, doesn't like to work out.

It'll be interesting for NC since winds veer to the north versus NW so it might be easier to force lower dewpoints and cooler air southward in the wedge zone

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[SD]

Gfs says Saturday is a Raleigh and Charlotte special

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[CummingWx]

Does anyone see any similarities with the saturday morning system and with the link I provided? Both have CAD at the sfc with very strong WAA aloft, precip started early in the morning and locked in the CAD. It hit the mid 60s in Birmingham and stayed in the upper 20s/lower 30s at my location all day. Maybe it's a totally different setup but looks very similar to me. Anyone wanna chime in?

http://www.weather.gov/ffc/icestorm_01252013

 

[SD]

Does anyone see any similarities with the saturday morning system and with the link I provided? Both have CAD at the sfc with very strong WAA aloft, precip started early in the morning and locked in the CAD. It hit the mid 60s in Birmingham and stayed in the upper 20s/lower 30s at my location all day. Maybe it's a totally different setup but looks very similar to me. Anyone wanna chime in?

http://www.weather.gov/ffc/icestorm_01252013

It'll be interesting. The initial conditions are fairly cold and dry but the Euro and GFS start warming up pretty quickly and its a brief period of light freezing drizzle/rain. At this point it's wait and see as far as quickly the wedge will erode like always. I honestly though don't think many areas will see as much precip as the event above. This looks more like a .1 or less type of event.

 

[CummingWx]

[quote author=CummingWx link=topic=46.msg1878#msg1878 date=1481675840]
Does anyone see any similarities with the saturday morning system and with the link I provided? Both have CAD at the sfc with very strong WAA aloft, precip started early in the morning and locked in the CAD. It hit the mid 60s in Birmingham and stayed in the upper 20s/lower 30s at my location all day. Maybe it's a totally different setup but looks very similar to me. Anyone wanna chime in?

http://www.weather.gov/ffc/icestorm_01252013

It'll be interesting. The initial conditions are fairly cold and dry but the Euro and GFS start warming up pretty quickly and its a brief period of light freezing drizzle/rain. At this point it's wait and see as far as quickly the wedge will erode like always. I honestly though don't think many areas will see as much precip as the event above. This looks more like a .1 or less type of event.
[/quote]

That's the most important part there. Initial conditions will be cold and dry to start, so if we can manage precip to fall into that kind of cold and dry airmass early enough before any possible solar heating, I think there could be alot of surprises, also temperature-wise as it doesn't warm as fast as all forecasts would indicate. CAD is VERY tough to predict and erode, especially if it's locked in, and what can strengthen it is strong WAA aloft. CAD is all about the inversion. Of course, the edges would be eroded but for those in prime CAD areas, it's VERY tough to get the wedge to erode. I just think if precip starts early enough, we have a chance.

 

[whatalife]

Winter is never complete w/o viewing the DGEX snow totals once or twice a winter...LOL! What a waste of a model...JUST FOR FUN....

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[Storm5]

Winter is never complete w/o viewing the DGEX snow totals once or twice a winter...LOL! What a waste of a model...JUST FOR FUN....

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thank god for the dgex the best model porn around

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[whatalife]

[quote author=whatalife link=topic=46.msg1884#msg1884 date=1481677025]
Winter is never complete w/o viewing the DGEX snow totals once or twice a winter...LOL! What a waste of a model...JUST FOR FUN....

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thank god for the dgex the best model porn around

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[/quote]
LOL!


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[Supershow]

84 hour 0Z NAM

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[whatalife]

This is to close for comfort...I hate ice!


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[SD]

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[Tarheel1]

84 hour 0Z NAM

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That's awesome! Too bad it's the NAM! Not the most accurate of models, but fun to look at! Bet the GFS here in a bit, looks nothing like this

 

[whatalife]

[quote author=Supershow link=topic=46.msg1902#msg1902 date=1481683628]
84 hour 0Z NAM

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That's awesome! Too bad it's the NAM! Not the most accurate of models, but fun to look at! Bet the GFS here in a bit, looks nothing like this
[/quote]
So true...


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[Shawn]

This is to close for comfort...I hate ice!


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Yeah, dews chilly.  Lexington isn't out of the woods by any means, but looks like Upstate and North of there in SC better chances.