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Wintry Saturday 12/17 light ice threat

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NAM is way too close even down here into my area.  Upstate might get hit pretty good if moisture isn't being modeled correctly.
 
Starburst link said:
NAM is way too close even down here into my area.  Upstate might get hit pretty good if moisture isn't being modeled correctly.

Not that desperate for a winter storm...LOL!


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=46.msg2067#msg2067 date=1481751084]
NAM is way too close even down here into my area.  Upstate might get hit pretty good if moisture isn't being modeled correctly.

Not that desperate for a winter storm...LOL!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Thankfully for us, precip is extremely light if any at all with the dry air in place.  We will probably be fine with a virga storm on this one before it warms up.
 
Starburst link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=46.msg2071#msg2071 date=1481754158]
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=46.msg2067#msg2067 date=1481751084]
NAM is way too close even down here into my area.  Upstate might get hit pretty good if moisture isn't being modeled correctly.

Not that desperate for a winter storm...LOL!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
[/quote]

Thankfully for us, precip is extremely light if any at all with the dry air in place.  We will probably be fine with a virga storm on this one before it warms up.
[/quote]

Yep.


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For those in metero ATL, you may want to keep on an eye on this.
NWS FFC
Areas toward metro ATL and AHN need to closely monitor the
forecast...although precip will likely be light...wet bulbing
could bring temps down enough to see some freezing precip for a
brief period.
 
I think the main issue will be lack of precip vs the strength of the wedge?
 
GainesvilleWX link said:
I think the main issue will be lack of precip vs the strength of the wedge?
Same here.... It's not the cold air, it's the QPF that will limit the severity.
 
Cad Wedge NC link said:
[quote author=GainesvilleWX link=topic=46.msg2089#msg2089 date=1481763671]
I think the main issue will be lack of precip vs the strength of the wedge?
Same here.... It's not the cold air, it's the QPF that will limit the severity.
[/quote]

Yep if precip came in earlier and we got more of it, it would have possibly been a big deal. I may be wrong, but I don't see the GSP metro getting to 40 on Sat. I'm thinking 34-35 at best and that could be too high IF precip is heavy enough to get us down to the wetbulb temp. Up your way it'll probably reach 33-34 at best and maybe only 31-32 if precip is heavier. Of course if precip is very light and or patchy both of us could see 40 by late Sat.
 
JHS link said:
[quote author=Cad Wedge NC link=topic=46.msg2096#msg2096 date=1481765163]
[quote author=GainesvilleWX link=topic=46.msg2089#msg2089 date=1481763671]
I think the main issue will be lack of precip vs the strength of the wedge?
Same here.... It's not the cold air, it's the QPF that will limit the severity.
[/quote]

Yep if precip came in earlier and we got more of it, it would have possibly been a big deal. I may be wrong, but I don't see the GSP metro getting to 40 on Sat. I'm thinking 34-35 at best and that could be too high IF precip is heavy enough to get us down to the wetbulb temp. Up your way it'll probably reach 33-34 at best and maybe only 31-32 if precip is heavier. Of course if precip is very light and or patchy both of us could see 40 by late Sat.
[/quote]
I agree. I remember last February our area had a close call. It stayed about 30 all day, but by the time the precip arrived the WAA was to strong for a significant event. I still remember the southern suburbs of Atlanta being close to 80 while Gainesville was 32. The wedge is hard to break.
 
NAM wants to get me excited about snow flurries Friday afternoon

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Increased accumulations per 0Z NAM for some areas.

0Z NAM:
zr_acc.us_se.png


18Z NAM:
zr_acc.us_se.png
 
I think a trace - .05" of freezing drizzle/light freezing rain seems like a good call for now in the east-central piedmont and coastal plain of NC, I could see areas near & just northwest of the Triad close to the blue ridge escarpment picking up near or just over 0.1" of ZR.
 
Webberweather53 link said:
I think a trace - .05" of freezing drizzle/light freezing rain seems like a good call for now in the east-central piedmont and coastal plain of NC, I could see areas near & just northwest of the Triad close to the blue ridge escarpment picking up near or just over 0.1" of ZR.

I disagree don't think there will be many .1" ZR totals around north-west NC close to the escarpment. In fact, no freezing rain advisory is planned due to snow/sleet onset. Currently NWS Blacksburg is advertising a little snow for the MTNS and a little sleet accum. for the Foothills with already limited moisture this will keep ZR totals way down IMO. I expect a Winter Weather Advisory for my backyard.
 
This is a unique setup where the foothills will changeover after the mountains if any snow flurries/sleet pellets do materialize. I think the northern foothills have a run at some whiteness/crunchy on the ground and no doubt some covered car tops and windows. My current thinking is a dusting of snow/sleet bag to very light minor glaze from drizzle.
 
Looks like the forecast in my area is up to 60 on Saturday. I'll be surprised if that verifies.
 
So it looks like this threat all depends on the amount of precip we get, while the one next week looks like it depends on the temps because there will be plenty of precip.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
So it looks like this threat all depends on the amount of precip we get, while the one next week looks like it depends on the temps because there will be plenty of precip.

Basically. Precip totals have always been the real question mark with this one. If anything it looks like there might be a trend upward but that's very slight
 
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