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Wintry Saturday 12/17 light ice threat

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Starburst link said:
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=46.msg1903#msg1903 date=1481683682]
This is to close for comfort...I hate ice!


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Yeah, dews chilly.  Lexington isn't out of the woods by any means, but looks like Upstate and North of there in SC better chances.
[/quote]

Hoping it's the Nam just being the Nam...


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Starburst link=topic=46.msg1908#msg1908 date=1481684188]
[quote author=whatalife link=topic=46.msg1903#msg1903 date=1481683682]
This is to close for comfort...I hate ice!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah, dews chilly.  Lexington isn't out of the woods by any means, but looks like Upstate and North of there in SC better chances.
[/quote]

Hoping it's the Nam just being the Nam...


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[/quote]
DP Temps at hour 84 NAM
8d318f0bcf45d1417e2740c88e59927b.jpg



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Freezing rain can be really tricky around here. All it takes is more precip or it to last longer than expected to cause problems. I remember once getting stuck on a school bus and having a sheriff 's deputy take me home because of freezing rain that caused havoc on the roads when it was forecasted to just be a cold rain.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Freezing rain can be really tricky around here. All it takes is more precip or it to last longer than expected to cause problems. I remember once getting stuck on a school bus and having a sheriff 's deputy take me home because of freezing rain that caused havoc on the roads when it was forecasted to just be a cold rain.
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Thank God this is a Saturday morning deal. I can't handle the I40 construction zone when it's perfect weather

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Really minus any driving issues under .25 is ok freezing rain. Beatiful to look at limbs wrapped in ice. Now when you get up to .5 and beyond your getting out of my comfort zone due to power losses.
 
The GFS is complete trash w/ this one IMO... The changes in dew points and surface temperatures look unrealistically too warm & it erodes the CAD very quickly (& unrealistically fast @ that) in comparison to the NAM & CMC. IMO, once you're inside 4 days or so & once the CMC actually figures out what's going on synoptically, it's one of the best performing models during CAD, but again that relies on the former being true which is sometimes not the case.
 
06z NAM little by little trying to get the ice down this way and bit more in other areas.  ugh.

image removed - wrong run.
 
NWS uses the WPC ice guidance which shows the highest probs of at least a tenth of an inch or more for most of Forsyth County to far eastern Wilkes County, NC.

60 to 70% probs for at least a glaze are highest from the northern foothills (Surry/Wilkes) down to (Cleveland/Rutherford).

There are also decent probs for upstate SC and north-east Georgia of around 50-60% chances.

These are the areas that withstand the best chance of winter weather products.
 
Lol, the GFS is such a joke w/ CAD Like the dew point is going to rise ~45F in 12 HR in Raleigh... I'm almost tempted to completely disregard it for early next week's threat...

gfs_Td2m_seus_13.png


gfs_Td2m_seus_14.png


gfs_Td2m_seus_15.png
 
bigstick10 link said:
Really, why in the Hell does everyone want an ice storm???????????? Grow up kiddies...
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I solely made this account to just tell you that you are a troll. Also, it is December...put a shirt on or your nips will suffer dearly.
 
I think the GFS is doing a good job on the CAD area where it will struggle to go above freezing last, matches the WPC to the nose. This will be Winston-Salem west.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121406/gfs_T2m_seus_14.png

If I was further east toward RAL I don't think the DP matters as much with marginable temps and lack of sig. precip to take advantage of evap. cooling; it will be rising fairly quickly post 6z.

The GFS is not doing terrible IMO, it just isn't showing the Winter Storm Watch criteria we all want.
 
WilkesboroDude link said:
I think the GFS is doing a good job on the CAD area where it will struggle to go above freezing last, matches the WPC to the nose. This will be Winston-Salem west.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016121406/gfs_T2m_seus_14.png

If I was further east toward RAL I don't think the DP matters as much with marginable temps and lack of sig. precip to take advantage of evap. cooling; it will be rising fairly quickly post 6z.

The GFS is not doing terrible IMO, it just isn't showing the Winter Storm Watch criteria we all want.
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The GFS is doing horribly with this ice situation and all Ice events! I'd take the NAM over GFS, all day , everyday!
 
bigstick10 link said:
[quote author=MiddleTNWx link=topic=46.msg1968#msg1968 date=1481717863]
[quote author=bigstick10 link=topic=46.msg1963#msg1963 date=1481714212]
Really, why in the Hell does everyone want an ice storm???????????? Grow up kiddies...
Click to expand...

I solely made this account to just tell you that you are a troll. Also, it is December...put a shirt on or your nips will suffer dearly.
[/quote]

Merry Christmas to you too. Well, calling me a troll makes you one as well.  Thanks
[/quote]

Hi guys...
We get it, some people think its crazy to wish for ice storms/hurricanes/tornadoes/hail/heat/winning the lottery but posting about it doesn't change their thoughts.

We also get that he doesn't have a shirt on obviously he doesn't want to wear one.

Can we just get past this stuff and talk about the weather. If you guys want to call each other trolls PM/OT are more than fair game.
 
Now it would be funny if this turns out being a bigger deal than next week's threat.
 
southernskimmer link said:
I always say I don't want ice until it's about to happen and I still get excited.
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That is how I am too. Now if we are talking a lot of ice (1/2"+), then no thank you. Lol
 
I'll take just enough to close work but to keep the power on. :)
 
I hate seeing people mess up their cars. It's easier to sled on but that's about it.

There will be a plenty of wrecks due to arctic cold air the days leading up to this light precipitation. Expect some dangerous bridges and elevated surfaces esp. north-west NC.
 
12km NAM looks a few degrees colder thru 45 HR virtually everywhere in the SE US, but we'll see how this translates (if @ all) into Sat
 
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