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Wintry Saturday 12/17 light ice threat

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cmc brings wintry precip into west tenn Sunday
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Supershow link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=46.msg1656#msg1656 date=1481602414]
00z gfs is way late with the precip . very little if any frozen precip

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That's a pretty stout HP at 1044 in Iowa, growing to 1046 in NE MO -  why is the cold air so delayed?
[/quote]
it's a fight with the ridge

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Thought this threat was dead, and it comes back like Michael Myers.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Thought this threat was dead, and it comes back like Michael Myers.

Canadian says no for us too on the weekend event.  Gonna take some quick changes from modeling over the next 2 days or so to bring it back.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
Thought this threat was dead, and it comes back like Michael Myers.

It's never been dead some fail to realize freezing drizzle still brings a thin layer of ice regardless of the dry modeling we are seeing. Ice is still ice to me when driving regardless of the amount.

Still dangerous and will likely require an advisory for some. If the dry cold onset features ANY sleet snow before transitioning they will opt for a Winter Weather Advisory over Freezing Rain Advisory per my Skype conference call. My backyard looks good for some frozen.
 
HWO out for the NC mountains...think this will be expanded for the GSP Mountains and eventually foothills too.

IN ADDITION...THERE IS A THREAT FOR SNOW, SLEET, AND FREEZING RAIN
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. SOME ACCUMULATION OF WINTER
PRECIPITATION COULD BE POSSIBLE BEFORE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO
RAIN BY AFTERNOON SATURDAY. WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THIS PERIOD WITH LATER FORECASTS.
 
FFC has some mention of a wintry mix in their grids for the Gainesville area.They are a lot less conservative than they use to be.
 
I have a hard time seeing more than some freezing drizzle in many areas. I think the upslope areas of the western piedmont and foothills will be the favored areas for any respectable accumulations.
 
SD link said:
I have a hard time seeing more than some freezing drizzle in many areas. I think the upslope areas of the western piedmont and foothills will be the favored areas for any respectable accumulations.
Agree... I can see a brief mix of freezing rain/IP then spotty light rain showers. I know the idea of models not picking up on the wedge has come up, but as modeled, this is nothing more than a nuisance event. I am in a prime CAD location, and at this time I am not expecting anything more than a light glaze on the car-tops. Now things can change, but this just isn't the right set-up for more than a very quick warm air advection event.
 
SD link said:
Gotta love this product on Tidbits...runs a bit hot

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You know there's always a pre frontal band ahead of these storms, if you get under it, consider yourself lucky and they can run 6-8 hours ahead of schedule sometimes!
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=46.msg1708#msg1708 date=1481641670]
Gotta love this product on Tidbits...runs a bit hot
You know there's always a pre frontal band ahead of these storms, if you get under it, consider yourself lucky and they can run 6-8 hours ahead of schedule sometimes!
[/quote]

Difficult to get anything to fall through a layer of -40c dewpoints
 
A thread for a rain cold! I smell desperation! It's probably the appetizer for the next Tuesday storm! That won't disappoint, I promise!
 
12KM NAM (18z) coming in a bit icier.  Shane is that snow at your house on it?
 
Don't think the 18z GFS will do much if anything with the ice.
 
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