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Hurricane Debby

lexxnchloe said:
Im not sure i have ever seen such a massive change in 12 hours so close to the event

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Pretty clear why the EURO hooked it back NW. High pressure centered over interior New England instead of Quebec blocks off the escape to the northeast. However I don’t really see anything on that map that would steer it that far inland. If something like this were to happen, unfortunately I think the result would be the center sitting and spinning out over SC. I wonder if the EPS will give any support for what the EURO just showed
 
Chazwin said:
Pretty clear why the EURO hooked it back NW. High pressure centered over interior New England instead of Quebec blocks off the escape to the northeast. However I don’t really see anything on that map that would steer it that far inland. If something like this were to happen, unfortunately I think the result would be the center sitting and spinning out over SC. I wonder if the EPS will give any support for what the EURO just showed
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They do for the most part, the timing of the left hook and how far west it goes spreads lows from like Norfolk to Mobile up to Huntsville at one point. Its such a big jump in one suite that it seems questionable but the real changes in the Euro suite are happening across the northern tier of the US which expands the central US ridge out. Most other modeling gets some degree of troughing back into the east.
 
SD said:
They do for the most part, the timing of the left hook and how far west it goes spreads lows from like Norfolk to Mobile up to Huntsville at one point. Its such a big jump in one suite that it seems questionable but the real changes in the Euro suite are happening across the northern tier of the US which expands the central US ridge out. Most other modeling gets some degree of troughing back into the east.
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Yeah it definitely a big change which is why I would want to see some support for it on the EPS to buy into it.
 
If the southern center is the one that wins and I think based on sat loops that seems likely and it can for some kind of core before crossing western Cuba that certainly changes things for the Tampa up to Big Bend area....
 
ICON and GFS both considerably slower than 12Z. Icon a bit west as well. GFS a little more east, then cuts north over easter NC at 972mb. Big thing is ALOT slower

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