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Hurricane Debby

Shaggy said:
This none is gonna be about angle of exit. Does it move NNE along the coast or N like the icon and euro? Or does it scoot ENE far enough offshore? Pretty sizable impacts to weather depending on which way it trends
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Alot depends too on how strong it gets before FLA. I would think if it comes off the east coast of FLA mostly intact then a low end cat3 is possible IF it either hits the OBX or just misses. IF it hugs the coast from FLA to here it will just be a sloppy TS.
 
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
tropical wave that NHC has been monitoring for the last several days
is now over southeastern Cuba, with disorganized convective bands to
the north and south of a broad vorticity center. The maximum winds
are currently near 25 kt, and the minimum pressure based on surface
observations is near 1012 mb. Given the potential for development
once the system moves over water on Saturday, advisories are
initiated at this time on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four.

The initial motion is 290/14 kt. A turn toward the northwest and
north is expected during the next couple of days as the system moves
into a break in the subtropical ridge caused by a mid-latitude
trough over the Ohio Valley. This should be followed by recurvature
into the westerlies after about 60 h. On the forecast track, the
system is expected to move into the Straits of Florida and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, followed by a motion near
the west coast of Florida Saturday night and Sunday. After that
time, the system should cross the northern Florida peninsula and
move over the Atlantic near or offshore of the southeastern coast of
the United States. The track guidance is in good agreement with
this scenario. However, since the forecast track is almost parallel
to the west coast of the Florida Peninsula and the southeast coast
of the U. S., only a small change in the track could lead to large
changes in which land areas receive any landfalls and the biggest
impacts.

Slow development is possible while the system is over Cuba, and the
system is likely to become a tropical depression soon after it
moves offshore. The environment over the Gulf of Mexico is quite
favorable for strengthening with light shear and very warm
sea-surface temperatures, so subsequent steady strengthening is
expected. The two biggest uncertainties in the intensity forecast
are how long the system will remain offshore of Florida and how
long it will take to consolidate. The system is likely to weaken
as it crosses Florida, with re-intensification likely over the
Atlantic.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall may result in flash and urban flooding across
portions of Florida and the Southeast this weekend through Wednesday
morning. Isolated river flooding will also be possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected Saturday night within the
warning area in southwest Florida from East Cape Sable to Bonita
Beach where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the Florida Keys on Saturday and along
the Florida west coast north of Bonita Beach to Aripeka Saturday
night and Sunday where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

3. Coastal flooding is possible along portions of the west coast of
Florida over the weekend.

4. Interests elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of
the United States from Georgia to North Carolina should monitor the
progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 20.9N 76.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 03/0000Z 21.7N 78.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/1200Z 23.3N 80.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 04/0000Z 25.1N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 27.2N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 29.2N 82.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 05/1200Z 30.7N 81.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
96H 06/1200Z 32.0N 80.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 07/1200Z 33.6N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
 
Shaggy said:
Seems a bit over zealous with its deepening and larger wind field as well
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For sure I definitely don't see this dropping nearly 20mb while hugging the SC coast, I hope at least lol

Levi talked about loosing steering currents due the ridge out west and the Atlantic ridge. The slow down definitely works in the storms favor.
 
Shaggy said:
Potential for a severe event is still there. With all the rain we just had and all the rain we could get a slow moving system with winds to 45-65 over land would tear some trees down easy
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Youre right about that, heck last night a tree just decided to fall over and took out the fence around my apartment complex retention pond. I was really hoping July would be as dry as June was to give us as much buffer as possible.
 
How close to the southeast coast is dependent on how far south it enters FL. See difference in 12z ICON and GFS. Icon closer and sometimes on the Atlantic coast. GFS further off.

icon_mslp_wind_seus_fh69-69.gifgfs_mslp_wind_seus_fh48-48.gif
 
Henry2326 said:
How close to the southeast coast is dependent on how far south it enters FL. See difference in 12z ICON and GFS. Icon closer and sometimes on the Atlantic coast. GFS further off.

View attachment 149166View attachment 149167
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Icon is in decent agreement with the cmc, 6z/0z euro, AI Euro on getting farther north before getting more east movement.
 
12Z UKMET: first landfall Apalachicola; then would be potential disaster rainfall potential-wise, especially for SC/NC coasts due to a crawl up the coast CHS N and then inland into coastal NC: this is to the left of the 0Z run, which was offshore

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 24.8N 84.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.08.2024 48 25.5N 84.6W 1006 35
0000UTC 05.08.2024 60 27.4N 85.0W 1005 41
1200UTC 05.08.2024 72 29.2N 84.8W 1005 42
0000UTC 06.08.2024 84 30.3N 83.6W 1005 30
1200UTC 06.08.2024 96 31.7N 82.0W 1003 43
0000UTC 07.08.2024 108 32.4N 80.9W 999 37
1200UTC 07.08.2024 120 32.6N 80.0W 995 35
0000UTC 08.08.2024 132 33.1N 79.0W 993 41
1200UTC 08.08.2024 144 33.9N 78.4W 993 44
0000UTC 09.08.2024 156 34.1N 78.3W 994 45
1200UTC 09.08.2024 168 35.1N 78.3W 996 38
 
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