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Wintry Possible Snow & Ice Threat Nov 14-15

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I wouldn’t be surprised to see the mountains of Pickens Greenville and Oconee counties get a Freezing rain advisory. Just a guess obviously
 
So how much of the sounding needs to be below freezing for sleet? If this wedge holds stronger and all of it is ZR, it will be really ugly. Euro seemed a bit warmer but not much. But light precip continues all afternoon and evening so I am worried about major issues with 1.5 qpf.
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Nomanslandva said:
So how much of the sounding needs to be below freezing for sleet? If this wedge holds stronger and all of it is ZR, it will be really ugly. Euro seemed a bit warmer but not much. But light precip continues all afternoon and evening so I am worried about major issues with 1.5 qpf.
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That's a sleet sounding as shown..... Since the atmosphere is solidly below freezing from the surface to the 850 layer, and a pronounced warm nose above that, it will most likely be sleet. Especially, if temps can manage -4C to -5C somewhere within in that cold layer.
 
Brent said:
We better last year still haunts me we never got ours
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You weren’t living in the big D, when they got like 12”, and were only supposed to get 1-2”?
 
Would it be wishcasting to say that parts of the Northern CLT metro area such as Davidson, Cornelius, Mooresville, etc. could get some glazing out of this briefly.
 
I doubt that north clt areas will get a glaze, bit we will probably see a brief period of sleet before it transitions to all rain due to dry air at around 875-925 mb before the onset
 

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214B21AA-49F8-4158-A73E-61593AF63324.jpeg Looks like nw Alabama up into western Tennessee and then the western Carolinas are the winners on the 0z nam.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I doubt that north clt areas will get a glaze, bit we will probably see a brief period of sleet before it transitions to all rain due to dry air at around 875-925 mb before the onset
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You are probably right, but if the CAD ends up stronger than modeled with lower dewpoints I could see the Northern CLT suburbs getting brief freezing rain before changing over.
 
accu35 said:
Yeah that 2 in. Strip going down MS/AL line is what the 12 and 18z gfs was trying to show as well
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I figure places in western alabama will be added to the winter weather advisory in the morning. Also you hear the saying upper level lows bring weatherman woes. They tend to bring a few surprises with them also. So we will see. I hoping for a dusting where I am located. That would be a win for early in the season.
 
DarkKnight said:
I figure places in western alabama will be added to the winter weather advisory in the morning. Also you hear the saying upper level lows bring weatherman woes. They tend to bring a few surprises with them also. So we will see. I hoping for a dusting where I am located. That would be a win for early in the season.
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This is what I’m hoping for. Lived here since 2006 and still haven’t had that big surprise snow that wasn’t supposed to be. This type of event definitely gives the best chance for a surprise.
 
Best time of year !!!
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Tarheel1 said:
You weren’t living in the big D, when they got like 12”, and were only supposed to get 1-2”?
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Nope lived in Alabama til fall 2014 best winter in Dallas was the first one and its barely snowed since

Though 2014 is ironically the last time we had a cold snap like this in mid November so maybe thats a good sign
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm seeing a colder and wetter trend in the models tonight. Wrap around flurries is all I expect but maybe we can get a surprise too.
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Yeah and seems like the upper low is little further east as well.
 
Looks like Memphis has shifted their accumulation maps Northward. Still hoping to see some snow fly in North MS.
 
Crazy to me that it seems places in the deep south see snow every year before we see it here.
 
NWS says dew-point in Spartanburg is 37F already lower than projected by models and NWS.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Crazy to me that it seems places in the deep south see snow every year before we see it here.
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I think it has a lot to with the fact that our early season cold air invasions drop down out of Canada into the middle of the country. We don’t benefit a whole lot from that type of HP placement. Just my amateur take
 
Rain Cold said:
Mountains.
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Btw I find this from the Rah NWS a little comical and even a touch of resentment that this storm is occurring now... Lol

If this were December or January, we would most likely have 20s near surface temperatures, with much more freezing rain. It is not mid winter, it is mid-November. Therefore, this is not a classical time to have a classical winter storm either.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Crazy to me that it seems places in the deep south see snow every year before we see it here.
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Deep south yes but also those areas are further west, as in west of the mountains (as RC noted), nothing to inhibit the cold air and further from Atlantic maritime influence.
 
Storm5 said:
Why ?


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Because it is further south, where it is usually warmer. I guess the mountains screw things up for here. Always seems harder than it should be to get winter weather in this part of NC.
 
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