At this point outside of someone on the D side catching fire and driving huge turnout, I see this as a very low turnout election. Generally this would favor Republicans but again the issue comes back to Trump and Vance. Both have lots of personal negatives that I think weigh more than policy negatives on the D side. In the end it’s still a popularity contest.
Quite literally all Trump had to do was have a “normal” acceptance speech and he could cruise. He doesn’t need to rile up his base with nonsense because they’re going to vote for him anyway.
This doesn’t even touch on the issue of split ticket voters which have dramatically risen beginning in 2020.
I agree about the riling up of the base. Much of the speech was directed toward the base, which for a lot of it anyway, was unnecessary. Just being objective, he missed a couple of real golden opportunities. The idea going in was about unity. Instead of fluffing the middle of the speech up, repeating the same things about border issues, illegal immigration, drill baby drill, and election shenanigans, do this:
1) Explain in detail the conspiracy that has been enacted by the left on their constituents. This is the most low-hanging fruit example of how they lie, spin, and obfuscate (all while gaslighting their constituents by accusing the other side of doing what they are doing). Overtly connect those dots.
2) Explain in detail how the supposed party of love, inclusion, and unity doesn't care at all about Biden's health from a personal level. They're only discussing it as it pertains to their political plans. That's not loving at all. And there are plenty of other examples of this.
3) Outline an energy policy that predominately features fossil fuels but at least nods in the direction of clean alternatives and some level of concern for the environment. Just talk about it like that. And then explain in detail all of the dire predictions that have not come to pass and the outrageously enormous amount of fossil fuel-generated energy that some of the leading green new deal proponents use every day.
4) Explain in detail how the left looks down their nose at average, everyday conservatives, calling them names like deplorables and conspiracy theorists, and show example after example of all of the things we've been right about and how now many on the left are claiming that the assassination attempt was staged.
5) Explain in detail all of the things the left has accused him of over the last 9 years and how time after time after time, they have been proven wrong. Show the examples of collusion on the left to lie about and just make up these things out of thin air. There are too many to even count. Explain how things like this lead to events like last Saturday.
He could have done those things and it would have been a grand slam speech. You can't just rail to your base and have people on the other side wake up. You have to shake them loose by beating them over the head with examples. That, alongside of the failing economy, inflation, rising global instability, massive illegal immigration, crime-ridden cities, unprecedented drug crisis, rising mental health issues, and many other things, would have moved the needle with some people who are at least close to waking up.
The left have been lying and getting away with it for far too long, aided by the media. This era is coming to an end. I don't think this election is going to be about personalities. I think it's going to be about whether or not we want America to collapse in on itself or not. People, thankfully, are starting to realize this. Trump could have helped that along last night, much more effectively. Unfortunately, he did not. But the speech was still fine; it was just too long.
