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Wintry Palm Sunday NC and VA Winter Storm

Seems the local TV mets and RAH are just taking the model output verbatim, though.
 
Rain Cold said:
Sounds like wintry mix is being reported in Winston and Kernersville with temps in the mid 40s. Don’t know if that has any bearing on what happens here later.
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That’s a cool rain, not cold rain! Brutal wedge here, 60 degrees! That sun angle tho
 
Webberweather53 said:
The radar derived p-type algorithms are struggling themselves atm, there's already reports of sleet and/or snow as far south as Mooresville and Concord as well as the Triad area right now w/ temps in the mid 40s.
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Yeah, looks like they are just looking at the temps and showing rain as the output because it isn't 32 or lower.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lots of sleet reports coming from the Charlotte metro area w/ temps in the mid-upper 40s. It's very cold aloft.
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I think if we can stay below 50 here before the precip arrives there are going to be some quick changes to the forecast.
 
I think it's time to start ditching the models and re-focusing our attention to nowcasting, from what Webber has said it's obvious that the NWP will just keep having problems until it's too late.
 
12z NAM 4 hour forecast vs current 16z observations. This is not a bad forecast overall, it's a little too warm if anything in the Triangle area, Fayetteville, Wilmington, and portions of upstate SC

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51.8 degrees here. No way I get accumulating snow tonight.
 
RDU has officially warmed up to 50F as anticipated might squeeze out another degree or two before the clouds, virga, and/or light rain/snow to our west move in
 
53 at the house. Clouds thickening up just in time to insulate the warmth. Timing was not particularly good.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I really don't get everyone freaking out about temps.
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Can you please list who is freaking out? Discussing current obs is hardly freaking out, IMO. I know you want it to snow really really bad. Many of us do. But it’s hard to understand why there’s anything wrong with being a tad realistic also. It’s certainly not something to get upset or offended about.
 
Rain Cold said:
Can you please list who is freaking out? Discussing current obs is hardly freaking out, IMO. I know you want it to snow really really bad. Many of us do. But it’s hard to understand why there’s anything wrong with being a tad realistic also. It’s certainly not something to get upset or offended about.
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Difference in just stating current obs and saying oh well, it's too warm for anything but rain now or accumulation when it is really not too warm yet.
 
Where precipitation has been falling for a while, you can already see the first hints of an in-situ CAD dome with the inverted trough developing along and west of the Apps and back into eastern TN. Once heavier precipitation arrives here late this evening and into the overnight, this will create a vertical latent heating dipole with condensation/deposition aloft capping melting, evaporation underneath (as described in an earlier post here: http://southernwx.com/community/threads/palm-sunday-nc-and-va-winter-storm.383/page-2#post-97672 ) that will hasten the low-mid level inversion, allowing the in-situ CAD to become more obvious in observations over NC.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Difference in just stating current obs and saying oh well, it's too warm for anything but rain now or accumulation when it is really not too warm yet.
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It’s most likely going to be too warm, man. I’m sorry. I mean, it’s not impossible for to see some wet snow later tonight. But we pretty much have good model consensus that this is going to be a non-event here. It’s fine to hold out hope. And there’s still hope for things to unfold perfectly. But trends today have been going the wrong way. I don’t see anything wrong with discussing that.
 
Rain Cold said:
It’s most likely going to be too warm, man. I’m sorry. I mean, it’s not impossible for to see some wet snow later tonight. But we pretty much have good model consensus that this is going to be a non-event here. It’s fine to hold out hope. And there’s still hope for things to unfold perfectly. But trends today have been going the wrong way. I don’t see anything wrong with discussing that.
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There hasn't been a very clear-cut trend in most of the models over the course of the day in fact if it wasn't for the outlandish ARW members skewing the previous HREF suite it would have held serve, things have held steady overall and nothing has changed in the large-scale sense.
 
Webberweather53 said:
There hasn't been a very clear-cut trend in most of the models over the course of the day in fact if it wasn't for the outlandish ARW members skewing the previous HREF suite it would have held serve, things have held steady overall and nothing has changed in the large-scale sense.
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Temps seem to be running a little warmer than we hoped out this way. We were hoping they would have been a bit cooler than modeled. Anyway, the bottom line is all rain or a period of wintry mix is more likely than an accumulating snow event here. If we would have walked into today seeing models come in colder and the actual temps verifying colder, I would feel much more optimistic about seeing a surprise here.
 
Rain Cold said:
Temps seem to be running a little warmer than we hoped out this way. We were hoping they would have been a bit cooler than modeled. Anyway, the bottom line is all rain or a period of wintry mix is more likely than an accumulating snow event here. If we would have walked into today seeing models come in colder and the actual temps verifying colder, I would feel much more optimistic about seeing a surprise here.
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Sure it's not as cold as we would have hoped yet but this isn't a negative trend by any means as you mentioned earlier because many of the models expected this. The HWY 64 corridor has been the southern demarcation of potentially legitimate accumulations of snow/sleet and that still is the case right now, nothing suggests (or has yet to) we've trended warmer and less wintry or vis versa in a general sense.
 
12z Euro really didn't change much w/ temps hovering precariously around 35F during the meat of the event in the Triangle, a degree either way or slightly different rates is going to be huge wrt heavy snow/sleet or plain rain.
 
Webberweather53 said:
12z Euro really didn't change much w/ temps hovering precariously around 35F during the meat of the event in the Triangle, a degree either way or slightly different rates is going to be huge wrt heavy snow/sleet or plain rain.
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Can you post the clown map? Just looking for trends. Thanks!
 
Rain Cold said:
It’s most likely going to be too warm, man. I’m sorry. I mean, it’s not impossible for to see some wet snow later tonight. But we pretty much have good model consensus that this is going to be a non-event here. It’s fine to hold out hope. And there’s still hope for things to unfold perfectly. But trends today have been going the wrong way. I don’t see anything wrong with discussing that.
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Based on what Webber has been saying, I don't think so. It could go either way, but not sure why some are taking the model outputs as gospel when Webber has explained how they are not all correct with this. I am at 48 now and with completely overcast skies. We have had sleet to the west with temps in the mid 40s. Webber has explained how things can work out here. Wake might be a battle zone, so maybe it will be harder further south. But I think it would be better to just wait and see and read what Webber has said instead of throwing in the towel. It is going to do what it is going to do either way. I could see if we had no shot at all, but as Webber has said, we do have a legit shot. Might as well be positive about it instead of negative. Anything wintry here on March 24 is a win, even if it is not much and doesn't stick.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Sure it's not as cold as we would have hoped yet but this isn't a negative trend by any means as you mentioned earlier because many of the models expected this. The HWY 64 corridor has been the southern demarcation of potentially legitimate accumulations of snow/sleet and that still is the case right now, nothing suggests (or has yet to) we've trended warmer and less wintry or vis versa in a general sense.
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I hear you. Not throwing in the towel, just not feeling very optimistic about the odds. Certainly not freaking out.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Based on what Webber has been saying, I don't think so. It could go either way, but not sure why some are taking the model outputs as gospel when Webber has explained how they are not all correct with this. I am at 48 now and with completely overcast skies. We have had sleet to the west with temps in the mid 40s. Webber has explained how things can work out here. Wake might be a battle zone, so maybe it will be harder further south. But I think it would be better to just wait and see and read what Webber has said instead of throwing in the towel. It is going to do what it is going to do either way. I could see if we had no shot at all, but as Webber has said, we do have a legit shot. Might as well be positive about it instead of negative. Anything wintry here on March 24 is a win, even if it is not much and doesn't stick.
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It’s fine. There just doesn’t need to be snarky or condescending comments when someone points out what they view is a speed bump to a winter storm.
 
Euro looks good to me. 2 to 3 inches here at the Wake and Franklin line.

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Rain Cold said:
It’s fine. There just doesn’t need to be snarky or condescending comments when someone points out what they view is a speed bump to a winter storm.
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It really does suck that temps ain’t working out for y’all! That slug of moisture looks to be training over y’all for ALONG time!! I didn’t have a dog in the fight! I’m not even sure Roxboro can accumulate with the warmth they are having to fight!:mad:
 
Brick Tamland said:
Based on what Webber has been saying, I don't think so. It could go either way, but not sure why some are taking the model outputs as gospel when Webber has explained how they are not all correct with this. I am at 48 now and with completely overcast skies. We have had sleet to the west with temps in the mid 40s. Webber has explained how things can work out here. Wake might be a battle zone, so maybe it will be harder further south. But I think it would be better to just wait and see and read what Webber has said instead of throwing in the towel. It is going to do what it is going to do either way. I could see if we had no shot at all, but as Webber has said, we do have a legit shot. Might as well be positive about it instead of negative. Anything wintry here on March 24 is a win, even if it is not much and doesn't stick.
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People can disagree with Eric. It’s allowed. Lol. He makes very valid points, but I’m on the other side of the table as far as this event goes. I agree with his points from a meteorological standpoint, but I’m with CR in that I think even RDU will struggle immensely here. You can count much of wake out for a changeover to all snow. I like NC/VA border counties and my stance on those areas, especially Granville/Person and west hasn’t changed...but as far as you and me — best case is sleet for 95% of wake county.
 
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