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Wintry Palm Sunday NC and VA Winter Storm

18z RGEM looking colder and snowier than 12z overall.
sn10_acc.us_ma.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is a butload of frontogenesis (contoured in magenta)...
Near and just to the north of this is most likely where the most lifting/ascent, and dynamic cooling is occurring and thus where the p-type may be changing over to heavy, wet snow possibly mixed w/ sleet.
View attachment 4765
Click to expand...
Hopefully that comes a little south to force some token flakes my way :)
 
18z , 12knam has gradually shifted since 6z this morning. Went from giving me and packfan98 a inch on 10:1 clown, to now over half a foot. Subtle changes make huge difference as Webb has hammered about since yesterday. Any way id be a little nervous along the escarpment and in the mtns east of the ridge crest. Possibility of some solid amounts of frzng rain mixing in with heavy wet snow accums. Get over an inch of qpf, frozen this time of year, its wet and super super heavy. Lord help the northern foothills or mtns if they get several wet heavy inches and freezing rain,drizzle on top, then back to inch or 2 of more wet snow.
 
packfan98 said:
18z RGEM looking colder and snowier than 12z overall.
sn10_acc.us_ma.png
Click to expand...

The RGEM was terrible in the event on the 11th-12th, sure it's a different story synoptically but we're still relying on the same processes to cool the column.
SN_000-048_0000.gif

Even as the event was happening 0z March 12th, it still was too warm. This is the snowfall QPF equivalent, it showed no snow southeast of the Triangle.
SN_000-048_0000 (1).gif


Verification.
March 12 2018 NC Snowmap.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is a butload of frontogenesis (contoured in magenta)...
Near and just to the north of this is most likely where the most lifting/ascent, and dynamic cooling is occurring and thus where the p-type may be changing over to heavy, wet snow possibly mixed w/ sleet.
View attachment 4765
Click to expand...
For the record I approve of this map

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
BIG FROSTY said:
I just don't know what to believe? Euro has been steady with big snows here, and most models have a good snow here. RNK finally went with WWA maybe 2-4 with mixing. I just can't remember something coming from the NW and dropping that much QPF here in the foothills, Usually NW systems we get down sloping? It wouldn't surprise me if we end up with hardly anything...
Surry-
Including the city of Dobson
401 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO NOON
EDT SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...Mostly clear this evening, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph this
evening, becoming light and variable.
.SATURDAY...Rain likely or a chance of snow in the morning, then
rain or snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch.
Much cooler with highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable
winds. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain. Snow or sleet in the evening, then sleet,
freezing rain and snow after midnight. Snow and sleet
accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Ice accumulation around a trace.
Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Sleet likely or a chance of rain or snow
showers in the morning, then a slight chance of rain showers in
the afternoon. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Highs
around 40. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation
70 percent.
Click to expand...

This is not a normal clipper by any means. Not only is the background saturation vapor pressure (capacity of the atmosphere to hold water) higher at this time of the year than mid-winter because it's warmer in general continental-wide, the liquid equivalent contained in this storm is extremely high. The original vorticity max and moisture actually stream out of southern California and surge northward into the upper midwest, Manitoba, and Saskatchewan along a very strong "atmospheric river" tied directly to the tropical Pacific before coming back SE over the top of a heat ridge in the southern high plains in our direction. This storm will have plenty of moisture to work with even though it's coming across the mountains. Usually clippers ride over top a PNA ridge and originate from the Canadian praries and it's cold/dry in front of them, this is so much different compared to what we usually see
us_f0.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The thermal profiles in general over the last 5 NAM runs have been improving for the Triangle including the most recent 18z run. The newest 18z run cooled the surface a tad and eroded the warm nose that was evident in the 12z
View attachment 4764
Click to expand...

I think we have a good shot at a decent event when the NAM is even looking better each time.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is a butload of frontogenesis (contoured in magenta)...
Near and just to the north of this is most likely where the most lifting/ascent, and dynamic cooling is occurring and thus where the p-type may be changing over to heavy, wet snow possibly mixed w/ sleet.
View attachment 4765
Click to expand...
I love where it is located.
 
Happy Hour GFS is not making me happy. Very paltry.
 
Brick Tamland said:
That spot south of Raleigh is funny.
Click to expand...
It is indeed funny Brick because that's about where my house is and I'm not expecting a flake out of this storm.

Edit: I will happily eat crow if I'm wrong.;)
 
Last edited:
Rain Cold said:
Happy Hour GFS is not making me happy. Very paltry.
Click to expand...
Well, by virtue of the "Like" at least I know I'm not banned around here ... :eek:
Hey! Good luck on some flakes ... and keep us good ol' deep southern folks in mind come August and September when models are showing exactly what we don't wanna see ... :rolleyes:
 
C1169A69-87B0-4681-844C-2A0CA6F3BD3F.png BOOM! Somebody get Bricks the smelling salts!
 
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