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Wintry Palm Sunday NC and VA Winter Storm

Already down to 36 at RDU, forecast low is 34F, looks like that's already in jeopardy. None of this may matter if we warm to our heart's content tomorrow because we don't have clouds tomorrow afternoon that's the big unknown right now.
 
Surely this winter storm just didn’t go down the drain at this late hour? But NAM and GFS follows with much warmer temps, something is up and it’s not snow totals!!


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BIG FROSTY said:
Surely this winter storm just didn’t go down the drain at this late hour? But NAM and GFS follows with much warmer temps, something is up and it’s not snow totals!!

Sun is at same angle we get 1st week of September. We don't have a heavy cloud deck, preferably some override moisture first few hours Saturday, itll be game set match. To much to recover from in my opinion.

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0z RGEM looks the best it has looked for the N.Foothills!
What gives??
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I just can't believe the Euro would be off that bad either? I know it's over done but I thought maybe half that amount 4-6 inches was possible....
The HRRR has precip here in 9 hours!!
Everybody went to bed after the GFS. lol
 
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The Euro is a degree (if that) warmer than its previous run in the areas of concern over NC but it's virtually the same overall. A 1-2F error is well within the understood and acceptable error range even for model initialization (i.e. this run's changes might be just noise) so remain vigilant esp along/north of US 64.

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Webberweather53 said:
The Euro is a degree (if that) warmer than its previous run in the areas of concern over NC but it's virtually the same overall. A 1-2F error is well within the understood and acceptable error range even for model initialization so remain vigilant esp along/north of US 64.

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This is pretty encouraging with the Euro holding on!!
 
37 degrees in Greensboro dark and early this morning.

I looked briefly at the 6z models and they look more like 18z runs than the 0z. Maybe the 0z runs were a bit of an anomaly?
 
It is 38 here with a dp of 22. Still thinking the 3Km Nam will end up correct as far as the p-type for most of us being rn with some ip and maybe brief Sn west of 85 and North of 40. Mountains should get mostly sn with some ip and possibly even some zr mixed in but no accumulations outside of the higher areas. Still amazing we are tracking something at the end of March so it is a win either way
 
The 0z 3km NAM cloud cover forecast from last night is not looking too good this morning, while these scales aren't directly comparable, if you compare the cloud top values on longwave IR from GOES 16 to its forecast we have cloud tops running -30C to -40C across much of central and western NC while it had values of only -10 to -20C (shallower, warmer, and thinner clouds) that burned off later in the day.
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0z HREF snowfall mean (10:1 SLR). Interested to see what this looks like after the 12z run later today. The amounts are overzealous (which makes sense here given the ratios are assumed to be 10:1), but the distribution is pretty realistic imo
snowfall_024h_mean.ma.f03600 (1).png
 
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Webberweather53 said:
0z HREF snowfall mean (10:1 SLR). Interested to see what this looks like after the 12z run later today.
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This is just a friendly reminder what the High Resolution Ensemble Forecast (HREF) actually is. It's essentially an ensemble of most of our high resolution, convection allowing models (CAMs) and uses the 2 most recent runs from the HRW NSSL, HRW ARW, HRW NMMB, and the 3km NAM. It can be a pretty useful product in situations like this and its current 0z forecast isn't all that outlandish imo.

HREF Ensemble members.jpg

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/
 
Glad to see the NAM was out to lunch. I still think I could end up with a couple of inches out of this.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm really not buying the latest NWS snowfall forecast, I think they've backed off way too much especially along and north of 40 & I-85.
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It's so close for the 40/64 corridor northward. It'll be interesting to see how things progress when we start seeing heavier bands of precip set up and if they are enough to cool the warmer layers.

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