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Palm Sunday NC and VA Winter Storm (3 Viewers)

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#1
Given this is only 3 days out now and there’s pretty stout NWP consensus I think it’s time to break out the thread for this event, if busts big deal, most of us have been spoiled beyond belief this winter and esp in March and this storm is just icing on the cake. Let’s reel this one in!
 
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#4
The SREFs didn’t look too hot for GSO and RDU last night and neither did the NAM near truncation as well as the CMC. Certainly was nice to see the crappiest models not completely on board this far out, that’s usually a good sign.
 
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#6
The 0z UKMET is really suppressed, along/north of the heaviest axis of precipitation stands the best chance for accumulating snow/sleet here. Even though the Triangle and Triad are currently favored, I wouldn't completely go to sleep on this even as far south as Charlotte and Fayetteville if you end up in the heaviest band of precipitation and/or the CAD builds in stronger/faster than forecast, it's a long shot atm but I think much of central NC and VA is fair game until we begin to narrow this down a little more.
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#9
I'm all about having a fun time.
This is the kind of storm that has really high bust potential even more so than our last few storms. Whoever ends up underneath the heaviest axis of precipitation Saturday night and Sunday morning is probably going to changeover to heavy wet snow and you're going to be stuck underneath that band for a very long time, which will maximize accumulations. This bonafide clipper event in March 2010 shows what can happen if you hit the sweet spot like those from GSO-Siler City-Dunn did.
March 2-3 2010 NC Snowmap.gif
 
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#12
Good or bad sign?

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Really doesn't mean a whole lot in this instance but it shifts the heavier precipitation timing closer to 12z which is favorable for wintry weather in north-central NC. The more noteworthy difference between this run and the 12z is the shift north of the heaviest axis of snow over the Dakotas, MN, and IA.
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Rain Cold

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#15
The models are putting us out of our misery quickly with this one. 12z runs are terrible for wintry weather around here.
 
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#17
The models are putting us out of our misery quickly with this one. 12z runs are terrible for wintry weather around here.
It's really not that far off from wintry weather, if the rates are heavy enough in this frontogenetical band in the late overnight on Saturday into Sunday, precipitation will changeover to snow. Surface temps are certainly going to be questionable right up to the event given that p-type will be determined by the precipitation rate, strength of the developing CAD dome, and amount of dynamical cooling that's generated by this sheared out s/w all of which NWP models can't adequately resolve. It's not as simple as "oh look the models all show rain now so it's automatically over" and vis versa.

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Rain Cold

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#20
It's really not that far off from wintry weather, if the rates are heavy enough in this frontogenetical band in the late overnight on Saturday into Sunday, precipitation will changeover to snow. Surface temps are certainly going to be questionable right up to the event given that p-type will be determined by the precipitation rate, strength of the developing CAD dome, and amount of dynamical cooling that's generated by this sheared out s/w all of which NWP models can't adequately resolve. It's not as simple as "oh look the models all show rain now so it's automatically over" and vis versa.

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I don't disagree. I don't like to see all of the models essentially backing off as we move in, though. That's a red flag for sure, if it continues.
 

packfan98

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#22
Definitely some good and bad points to the modeling today so far. Most have shifted the low and stripe of precip further south. However, the stripe of winter weather has not been shifted south to match. Looks like the high pressure has been trending slightly weaker with the 12z runs. I'm curious to what the Euro shows. I think I-40 north is definitely in the game.

By the way, the canadian is definitely further south with the low. Good signs there I think.
 
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#23
I don't disagree. I don't like to see all of the models essentially backing off as we move in, though. That's a red flag for sure, if it continues.
I personally don't see any red flags. If you look at the large-scale conditions, the 850s are below 0C from US 64 north and surface temps are 33-34F, we've seen in the last few events that's very doable (you can actually get away w/ max temps of 1C aloft before dendrites completely melt but that's besides the point) and the timing is optimal during the late overnight period so we don't have to worry about any insolation, etc and there's going to be a lot of lifting in this frontogenetical band. Steady as she goes for now.

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Rain Cold

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#25
I personally don't see any red flags. If you look at the large-scale conditions, the 850s are below 0C from US 64 north and surface temps are 33-34F, we've seen in the last few events that's very doable (you can actually get away w/ max temps of 1C aloft before dendrites completely melt but that's besides the point) and the timing is optimal during the late overnight period so we don't have to worry about any insolation, etc and there's going to be a lot of lifting in this frontogenetical band. Steady as she goes for now.

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Ok, I'll stay with you then. :)
 
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#27
Ok, I'll stay with you then. :)
Obviously however if this shortwave starts to lift back north and amplifies in subsequent runs, and as we're approaching the event we're several degrees warmer than forecast or the CAD high is slower to move in (we'll likely have some diabatically induced in-situ CAD in any case that's also very difficult to forecast and often missed by the models which may offset this potential negative in the forecast), and/or if the observations upstream in the midwest and OH/TN valleys showed more liquid than frozen vs forecast, then yea I'll be worried. This is the latest in the season I've ever been tracking a winter storm so there's that
 

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