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Wintry Palm Sunday NC and VA Winter Storm

Don't fret over one model run. Overall, the models have mostly trended better.
 
Getting into la-la land for the HRRRx so take it for what it's worth but the new 23z run looked better (colder and slower) than the 18z upstream over Indiana, Illinois, and Iowa through 18 hours. Will be interesting to see what this model looks like by the 12z runs tomorrow in addition to the entire HREF suite. We should get a first glimpse of the high res model 0z consensus by tonight when the HREF comes in.
 
Looks at 3k NAM...
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Meanwhile, the RGEM is in the corner pointing it's fingers and laughing at the NAM suites.:rolleyes:

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Webberweather53 said:
The 0z NAM and 1z HRRR are worlds apart on surface temperatures even out to 10 hours w/ the 3km NAM way warmer than the HRRR, one of these models is going to bust terribly over the midwest and OH/TN valley but I'm not sure which one yet.
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We'll know by morning which model head its head stuck in the sand. Definitely will be very important to monitor the upstream evolution of this system and the verification vs reality over the midwest and OH valley and how the high res models trend in the short range because some of their errors and in-situ adjustments could quickly propagate downstream and impact our forecast, in addition to monitoring surface observations compared to forecasts as these may potentially provide very subtle hints on which way the forecast will lean Saturday night. Considering all of the above plus the 12z model suite tomorrow, by then I think we should have at least an okay-ish idea on what's going to happen.
 
Hmm this looks strange to me. There's actually more ascent throughout the entire column and especially in the DGZ on this 0z NAM run (which argues for more dynamical cooling) and you'll notice the wind direction and speed in the lower-levels (indicative of veering and warm air advection) is slightly less pronounced & the QPF overall is the same, yet this runs is somehow warmer?
Ok...
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Webberweather53 said:
Hmm this looks strange to me. There's actually more ascent throughout the entire column and especially in the DGZ on this 0z NAM run (which argues for more dynamical cooling) and you'll notice the wind direction and speed in the lower-levels (indicative of veering and warm air advection) is slightly less pronounced & the QPF overall is the same, yet this runs is somehow warmer?
Ok...
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Upon closer inspection it looks like the timing of thick mid-high level clouds tomorrow morning and into the early part of the afternoon is the difference maker on the NAM vs its 18z suite. Less thick clouds later on allows more insolation to come thru and warm the BL before a thicker low-level cloud deck arrives later in the evening ahead of our precipitation. As was the case w/ the comparison between the HRRR & NAM runs through 10 hours we'll know by morning if this is legit or not.
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Well this didn't take long. The 3km NAM is way too warm already over the Carolinas, has temps in the mid-upper 40s for 3z, reality is in the upper 30s-near 40F according to the newest 3z observations. For example it's supposed to be 49F right now in Rockingham, NC it's already 40F there. Other stations like RDU, Clinton, etc. are also running much colder than forecast just 3 hours out. What a dumpster fire this run has turned out to be in the short range thus far

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Webberweather53 said:
Well this didn't take long. The 3km NAM is way too warm already over the Carolinas, has temps in the mid-upper 40s for 3z, reality is in the upper 30s-near 40F according to the newest 3z observations. For example it's supposed to be 49F right now in Rockingham, NC it's already 40F there. Other stations like RDU, Clinton, etc. are also running much colder than forecast just 3 hours out. What a dumpster fire this run has turned out to be in the short range thus far

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The GFS is not even in the same galaxy in the mountains right now, way too cold by nearly 5-10F in some cases, whereas it's not cold enough in the east-central piedmont and coastal plain of NC.
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