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Wintry Palm Sunday NC and VA Winter Storm

HREF probability matched mean (PMM) 10:1 SLR snowfall accumulations (which accounts for dampening between members) is about to come into view over NC.
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Webberweather53 said:
HREF probability matched mean (PMM) 10:1 SLR snowfall accumulations (which accounts for dampening between members) is about to come into view over NC.
29404493_10208336036718238_2046949672_o.png
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I know you just can't extrapolate that out, but as is I love the trajectory of that corridor of snow probabilities
 
I like how Huffman has me in the bust potential zone. I am so close to the 1-3 zone, and I think that will creep a little south.
 
Also, I'd rather have it like this than the models showing a big storm here a few days out that usually doesn't verify. We usually do better around here when things keep changing and are unknown up until the storm unfolds.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The maps from weathermodels.com haven't updated yet but the system is a little slower on this run than yesterday's 12z
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In addition both the cold sfc high and corresponding low over the central MS valley are stronger which favors even more lift and frontogenesis than yesterday's 12z lol
 
The UKMET looks lit for NC precipitation wise esp for I-40/85 & US-64 corridors, no idea wrt temps. but both locations are in a favorable juxtaposition in this precipitation shield (the cold (northeast) side of the most intense frontogenesis is typically where the heaviest snow (if there is any) will be focused)
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The Euro is maybe at most one degree too warm in the Triangle, it's snowing elsewhere where the temps are 34-35F. Way too close to call, you simply can't bank on the surface temps being accurate within 1-2F esp here when there's dynamical cooling and an in-situ CAD that'll cool the sfc and likely will be whiffed by most NWP
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Webberweather53 said:
The Euro is maybe at most one degree too warm in the Triangle, it's snowing elsewhere where the temps are 34-35F. Way too close to call, you simply can't bank on the surface temps being accurate within 1-2F esp here when there's dynamical cooling and an in-situ CAD that'll cool the sfc and likely will be whiffed by most NWP
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Thanks! Just to let you know, the last few maps you’ve been trying to post have not been showing up. You must be behind a paywall.
 
If the modeled surface temps are even 1-2F different than what the Euro is spitting out, that's the difference between a few inches of sloppy wet snow (possibly mixed w/ sleet) making it down into Johnston, Harnett, Lee, and Moore counties vs cold rain for everyone southeast of the Triad and Roxboro.
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packfan98 said:
Thanks! Just to let you know, the last few maps you’ve been trying to post have not been showing up. You must be behind a paywall.
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Ah okay thanks I think I know what the problem is (copy and pasting the images instead of saving them on my hard drive), hopefully what I just did fixed the problem for everyone!
 
The Euro's 850 hPa temps are colder than the last run and all that would need to happen is the surface to cool another degree or so on the model and you're looking at heavy, wet snow into the Triangle area and the rest of the US 64 corridor and vis versa if it's warmer than realized (of course that could also introduce more sleet into the picture that would limit accumulation.)
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Webberweather53 said:
If the modeled surface temps are even 1-2F different than what the Euro is spitting out, that's the difference between a few inches of sloppy wet snow (possibly mixed w/ sleet) making it down into Johnston, Harnett, Lee, and Moore counties vs cold rain for everyone southeast of the Triad and Roxboro.
View attachment 4752
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Upstate gets buried.......





With flurries! :weenie:
 
The 12z ARW-1 and ARW-2 are definitely on the colder side of most NWP atm (& maybe too cold?) but could support wet snow even into Johnston, Moore, Harnett, and Lee counties and the newest suites are colder than the 0z runs.
wrf-arw_2018032312_fh36_sounding_79.46W,77.92W,35.31N,36.35N.png

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Webberweather53 said:
If the modeled surface temps are even 1-2F different than what the Euro is spitting out, that's the difference between a few inches of sloppy wet snow (possibly mixed w/ sleet) making it down into Johnston, Harnett, Lee, and Moore counties vs cold rain for everyone southeast of the Triad and Roxboro.
View attachment 4752
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Lollipop virtually over my house in SE Wake. Haha
 
E2E9A529-DE6E-484D-827F-F9F779773C80.png Never heard of this one: ARWF-2 or something! Courtesy of the other board! Hump this one!
 
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