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Wintry Palm Sunday NC and VA Winter Storm

I would tend to go with the higher horizontal resolution of the 3km Nam at this point over the 12km or the Euro/GFS globals
 
MichaelJ said:
I would tend to go with the higher horizontal resolution of the 3km Nam at this point over the 12km or the Euro/GFS globals
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I would tend to agree with this but since I'm currently getting 12K NAM'd right now I'm going with it instead Lol
snku_acc.us_ma.png
 
NAM is fairly steady with past couple of runs with precipitation jackpot down I-40. Seems like whoever is just on the NE edge of heaviest precipitation will have a great shot to see something wintery.

nam.qpf_acc.us_ma.trend (1).gif
 
If the NAM is even 1 or 2 degrees colder in the boundary layer, that’s going to be heavy wet snow down to the US-64 corridor (Asheboro-Siler City/Pittsboro, Raleigh, Wilson). This is within an acceptable range for an initialization error @ 0 hours in the model, it’s going to probably come down to the last minute south of the VA border but for reasons explained above in my response to cold rain I think we have a legitimate shot, more than what most are willing to admit.
 
Kylo said:
The 6z RGEM was much more suppressed then the NAM's so hopefully it moves NW some at 12z.

View attachment 4749
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ICON has been more suppressed as well (also warmer but meh it's struggled with that)... really minor differences in location in the models but those differences have massive sensible weather implications.
 
Webberweather53 said:
If the NAM is even 1 or 2 degrees colder in the boundary layer, that’s going to be heavy wet snow down to the US-64 corridor (Asheboro-Siler City/Pittsboro, Raleigh, Wilson). This is within an acceptable range for an initialization error @ 0 hours in the model, it’s going to probably come down to the last minute south of the VA border but for reasons explained above in my response to cold rain I think we have a legitimate shot, more than what most are willing to admit.
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Yeah, wait and see game. Could go either way. I'm glad I live about as far north as you can go in Wake for this one.
 
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