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Ostrich December

Take with a grain of salt...
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Not really interested in this but I’m not letting it go completely, would be nice if we sped up the northern stream around the GLs2DA11EA3-89B3-42E2-BAC0-DA8934A16F48.png954BF237-2E22-4B10-B78C-034E84BCA298.png
 
I'm interested to see where we are at Christmas and how things are progressing and what we are looking at in the model world for the following week into January. I feel like the first half of January could be really really good. That said it may be an all or nothing Pacific ridge look
 
SD said:
I'm interested to see where we are at Christmas and how things are progressing and what we are looking at in the model world for the following week into January. I feel like the first half of January could be really really good. That said it may be an all or nothing Pacific ridge look
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The good ol -EPO all or nothing..... we always end up on the southeast ridge side of that all or nothing with them
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
The good ol -EPO all or nothing..... we always end up on the southeast ridge side of that all or nothing with them
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Yeah idk watching how the tpv lobe retrogrades and the EAMT event will be fun. I certainly think we could get into a -EPO/+PNA massive ridge setup but we will see, I still feel like this is coming at some point this winter
 
SD said:
Yeah idk watching how the tpv lobe retrogrades and the EAMT event will be fun. I certainly think we could get into a -EPO/+PNA massive ridge setup but we will see
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18z from the other day sort of showed fhat.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Now this is the recipe to getting a winter storm in the SE, nice trough in place from a +PNA but plenty of blocking with a -AO/-NAO (kind of a pattern you just don’t often see nomore), this honestly looks better than January 2018 View attachment 57725View attachment 57726View attachment 57727
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I agree. We didn’t have blocking with mid-January storm in 2018... we just happened to have perfect timing with a transient cold shot. With blocking in play, and this kind of a look, we could see a board wide event.
 
Ollie Williams said:
Really was a bearish run overall, and not really enough to convey a signal. Member 47 only really skewed the mean.
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It’s slim pickings at this point. It’s around now that we at least get some fantasy storms. We’ve had very little to this point.


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SD said:
12z eps has almost no members 60+ after Christmas now. (A few members have a late frontal passage on the 26th)
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I'm only pointing this out because having the eps at 5 to 10 below normal at days 13+ with a decent agreement is pretty significant. Could it change and be warmer? Sure. Will it? Not sure
 
SD said:
Just remember at this time in 2017 we were looking at mid 70s on the models leading into Christmas and afterward. Not saying we suddenly see big cold and snow on the models just that you never know...
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And I was cleaning up my yard after a foot of snow took down 100 limbs. Those were the days.
 
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