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Ostrich December

The end of the CMC run brings in the Siberian cold.
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Now that’s the type of cold high I’m talking about!
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If this LaNina performs like 1998-99, this month into very early Jan may be our best window for a big system. Most likely ice.
I can only speak for the Charlotte area, but late December and early January were not the only times we saw winter weather in the ‘98-‘99 winter. We had the Christmas Eve Ice Storm that ended with some light snow on Christmas morning, another Ice/Sleet storm right after the new year, then in February we had a ULL that brought several inches of thunder snow, another light snowfall a few days later, and then another snowfall in mid-March
 
Well that cold front sure brought gusts with it last night! What a squall line. There were scattered power outages a few miles north of here from that weather. At least we're back down to more December like weather, at 46 this morning.
 
Still focusing on big picture down the road going into January prime time. Decent look on GEFS. Can't see EPS, but -AO still looks solid, perhaps an east based -NAO. Vortex seems to be dropping out of AK region and replaced with ridging.

Not bad, but hoping it doesn't set up with the trough in the west.

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Looks like I'll be under southwest flow aloft today, so that Gulf moisture, along with good CAA closer to the surface, should keep the temps from really warming from where they are now. Still sitting at 46 with overcast skies and a good northerly breeze.
 
Sleet coming off the mtns now! Wilkes/Surry. Watch out piedmont maybe north of Winston?
 
Slick as ****. Above freezing and warm road but sleet is ice! ?
 
I really like that look, wow, ridging towards the NW territories combined with a -NAO could send a TPV flying towards us, and there’s just this lonely southern stream wave, I can see that working out View attachment 57698

That WAR though....keeps fighting against cold.

At some point though in late December to early January, I just get the feeling the hounds will be released. It's like we're teetering on the edge.

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I really like that look, wow, ridging towards the NW territories combined with a -NAO could send a TPV flying towards us, and there’s just this lonely southern stream wave, I can see that working out View attachment 57698

Yup; that's more or less what happened with the super weenie fantasy run the other day. Big lobe of the TPV pushed down and caught a southern stream piece at just the right time.
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In terms of realizing that down the road: the trends with the TPV are notably improving in the medium range. Note the shift more eastward towards Hudson Bay instead of NW Canada. This + improved high latitude blocking (-NAO improving in the above gif too; these two trends are closely related) helps the lobe stick around for a little bit, which sets up the number of close calls you're seeing in the longer range.
 
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