This smells like overrunning/anafront..... 
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
overrunning events are the best.
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Hohoho merry Christmas?
Looks like if it played out like this the next phase could be a big low over AK. Let’s just hope this progression is wrong.I don’t like the influx of cold attic air over Siberia end of the month. There is nothing going to press on it.
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JLL1973
Member
whatalife
Moderator
So here is day 10-15 on all 3 major 12z ensemble runs. As shown in an earlier post the EPS final 3 days was the coldest of all three model suits. Is it going to be a transient shot of cold followed by normal to above normal temps.?.Let’s see how this plays out after Christmas.
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BufordWX
Member
I love me some nighttime heavy rain events. Maybe we can squeeze out a little thunder as well?
The 18z GFS is showing some potential down the road. Mostly cold chasing moisture or thread the needle scenarios. Nothing like the winter paradise of yesterday's 18z, but no torch pattern either. The NAO even wants to be negative, thought i can't imagine why.So here is day 10-15 on all 3 major 12z ensemble runs. As shown in an earlier post the EPS final 3 days was the coldest of all three model suits. Is it going to be a transient shot of cold followed by normal to above normal temps.?.Let’s see how this plays out after Christmas.
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whatalife
Moderator
Yep! New decade...So maybe it’s the decade of the -NAO...Last decade sure as h&$$ wasn’t!
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So here is day 10-15 on all 3 major 12z ensemble runs. As shown in an earlier post the EPS final 3 days was the coldest of all three model suits. Is it going to be a transient shot of cold followed by normal to above normal temps.?.Let’s see how this plays out after Christmas.
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Those longwave pattern looks give me December 2017 vibes
I would not toss in the towel on winter weather potential around Christmas, GFs has been somewhat consistent with its H5 look leading up to this period.
Yeah, I’m liking that Rex block with an amped wave in the SE, classic setup for a winter storm here. The question is, will there be a +EPO that pushes the ridge over the US, or a -EPO and a trough in the NE. I’m looking into it too much, but that’s what models are showing in the LR taking verbatim.
Prestige Worldwide
Member
Late December showing promise.
JHS
Member
If this LaNina performs like 1998-99, this month into very early Jan may be our best window for a big system. Most likely ice.
MeteoStar Home > User
I’m literally in the fog this evening with visibility much less than the width of the park. This is the foggiest I can remember on a walk here. Temps is near 59, which is just a few degrees under the normal high.
Our leaf peak is just now happening!
Our leaf peak is just now happening!
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SnowNiner
Member
It looks like it's good.
NCSNOW
Member
We where in your neighborhood sorta Saturday night for the game over in "gnatsboro." I can ateast to the leaves. Came in back roads from Augusta, folks busy getting up the cotton. So hilly and beautifull around the Savannah river, Augusta.
NCSNOW
Member
+pna ,-epo is awesome news.
SnowNiner
Member
Very nice. Thanks. We are due. December pattern is progressing nicely for a great January it seems.
SnowNiner
Member
Pair that with the persistent blocking and we have fireworks. If not, I quit.
I believe that the +East Asia Mountain Torque is a lot of high pressure over east Asia, and was our cause of the massive +PNA in early December/Late November
Mr. Golf
Member
You dont want too much +pna or its dry nw flow. -epo is preferred. Pair it with -ao/nao then its PIPE Busting weather most likely, for some.
SnowNiner
Member
Pna though is a must so the cold doesn't dump in the West. Transports it east. Neutral epo would be fine as long as there's no vortex in ak.
Mr. Golf
Member
Ideally, you want a weak negative pna with a negative -epo to really send the bitter cold south and a southern track provided by the -nao. We haven't had any true artic air yet.
cd2play
Member
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Per the GFS, Thursday night into Friday night be interesting for the foothills and western piedmont of nc
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In the LR, these ridges centered in the NW really aren’t going to do us any good, we need them over BC potentially tilting into central Canada. The Low pressure coming down from Canada really won’t work, and has been a problem so far this winter.
The Euro is a bit better.
The Euro is a bit better.
SnowNiner
Member
I'm not a fan of the war either honestly. Rather see lower heights off the ne coast for 50/50s.
This is a model run from last year I’d like to trend towards, although maybe more of a -NAO.
This model had us going towards phase 7 of the MJO, which I don’t think is really on the table this time around.
Hello from Lake Tahoe! modernweenie
modernweenie
I don’t understand why this guy is showing max output to his followers?
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Brent
Member
Hello from Lake Tahoe!
dang barely snowed when I was there in January. I suck
Damn I hope we can time something up with that S/S beauty somehow and someway 
A big beautiful +PNA/-WPO would work. Then we could really get things shaking!
The end of the CMC run brings in the Siberian cold.
