• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Ostrich December

Ive flipped through every model from last night, CFS included. See no torch. Frankly just close to normal seasonal weather. Few cold, BN, days on backside of cutters.
Looking like La nina which is in a moderate state is gonna fizzle out by early January, be in neutral state. Webb /Gawx what are yalls thoughts on this? To me this changes the backdrop and should trickle down to a pattern reshuffle Jan/Feb. I pretty much thought moderate La nina was gonnna last all winter.
 
NCSNOW said:
Ive flipped through every model from last night, CFS included. See no torch. Frankly just close to normal seasonal weather. Few cold, BN, days on backside of cutters.
Looking like La nina which is in a moderate state is gonna fizzle out by early January, be in neutral state. Webb /Gawx what are yalls thoughts on this? To me this changes the backdrop and should trickle down to a pattern reshuffle Jan/Feb. I pretty much thought moderate La nina was gonnna last all winter.
Click to expand...
Any model run past 10 days IMO holds no weight. We see it all the time. Everyone on the board pulls out the weeklies and then post Jan and Feb future runs. December has been great so far. We all know we will see several storms from Jan-March. We don’t need a persistent cold. Let’s face it, in the south East all we need are the components to line up nicely one time and winter is a success.
 
NCSNOW said:
Ive flipped through every model from last night, CFS included. See no torch. Frankly just close to normal seasonal weather. Few cold, BN, days on backside of cutters.
Looking like La nina which is in a moderate state is gonna fizzle out by early January, be in neutral state. Webb /Gawx what are yalls thoughts on this? To me this changes the backdrop and should trickle down to a pattern reshuffle Jan/Feb. I pretty much thought moderate La nina was gonnna last all winter.
Click to expand...

La Nina won't fizzle out into ENSO neutral by January, even if it did, it takes months not days or weeks for the circulation pattern fo respond/adjust to that new ENSO base state, plus the SST thresholds being used to define it now are arguably too cold (biased towards El Nino), future, warmer base periods will thus likely-almost certainly show a stronger Nina than what we currently see.

Zonal pattern w/ strong +EPO means we're going to struggle to get any substantial cold air to enter the picture, even if it's not a "torch" it might as well be because a pattern like this sucks for cold/snow around here. It doesn't help when the subtropical NE Pacific is also running record warm.

1607427611595.png
 
3d722d34f956f33b68b222e05b2679a8.jpg

Wasn’t expecting to get this low this morning. Solid freeze for my area.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
^^Yeah we would need a little more push of cold into CAD areas. And colder air to be tapped into. On the euro dew point temps are only in the 20s to our north over the MA area (at hour 162). That wont cut it, except if 850 temps were colder. Now the GFS is colder with upper teens to lower 20s. That's closer but it doesn't show the storm. Maybe we can get the euro storm with the GFS temps. I guess this is something to look at.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top