Ostrich December

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 52896

I see the Canadian is back to its old ways

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Last frame of euro
View attachment 52914

What a weenie run!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Euro/Canadian camp used to be a strong combo. Let’s see how it shakes out ?

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

? I’ve got a chub

 

[RBR71]

View attachment 52896

Over/under 12.5° warmer next model run

 

[SD]

Over/under 12.5° warmer next model run

Probably warmer but the Euro isn't that far away from the cmc solution

 

[Ollie Williams]

SMH, very little on the EPS mean, however, as a whole this run got colder and definitely not a terrible look.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Would love to see that Canadian run in mid January

SMH, very little on the EPS mean, however, as a whole this run got colder and definitely not a terrible look.View attachment 52922

”Give me the cold first.”

-that rain cold guy

 

[Myfrotho704_]

SMH, very little on the EPS mean, however, as a whole this run got colder and definitely not a terrible look.View attachment 52922View attachment 52925View attachment 52926

That’s a look I could see becoming a issue with ice over snow tbh

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

If it played out like this that cold airmass would have no choice but to hang around and rot

 

[RBR71]

SMH, very little on the EPS mean, however, as a whole this run got colder and definitely not a terrible look.View attachment 52922View attachment 52925View attachment 52926

Is there a coastal in there? Like seeing that little bit in the coastal areas

 

[Ollie Williams]

Wow! The GFS Parallel!

 

[Jessy89]

It does appear the first 7-10 days of December will be cold. Moisture we will have to see on that I don’t see anything that screams snow outside the mountains. But we know these things can pop up pretty fast. I’m very optimistic about the pattern coming up though


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[Ollie Williams]

Is there a coastal in there? Like seeing that little bit in the coastal areas

Yep, but it's just one rouge member.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Go back and read some of this thread:

Pattern - December - Deal or No Deal?

The first week looks to have some potential. I feel like this specific threat should go into the December thread instead of the Winter or November threads. Let's see where it goes.

southernwx.com

Not as great, but lots of similarities.

 

[SimeonNC]

View attachment 52915View attachment 52916

Is it too early to mention pants bursting?

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[Ollie Williams]

I'm curious @Webberweather53 and others, what are some good analogs to this upcoming pattern, besides potentially December 2018?

 

[Cadi40]

Well if we can get the cold I think this may a larger event than that of December 2018.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is gonna be close

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Dang trough leaves to quick on gfs so the ULL moves into modified air

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

This is gonna be close View attachment 52957

Ugh swing and a miss

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[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Dang trough leaves to quick on gfs so the ULL moves into modified air View attachment 52958View attachment 52959

That's brutal lol. I bet it's gonna get frigid right when the precip moves out

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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It’ll make its own cold air. Workable

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Standard GFS progressive bias at play here I would assume

 

[Jessy89]

There could be a couple decent members on this run. It’s not all that far off really


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

GFS gets some high elevation snow going late in the run

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Standard GFS progressive bias at play here I would assume

That’s what I’m thinking, no other models really signal the trough to move out that fast and most of the time deeper troughs like that take longer to move out

 

[Jessy89]

Boone would see a nice snow on gfs out of that


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Just for argument’s sake, GFS has no idea what it wants to do with that LP

 

[RBR71]

Just for argument’s sake, GFS has no idea what it wants to do with that LPView attachment 52962

Reverse Miller B brought to you by the year 2020

 

[SimeonNC]

Reverse Miller B brought to you by the year 2020

What the hell kind of precip would that even produce?

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[Tarheel1]

I'm curious @Webberweather53 and others, what are some good analogs to this upcoming pattern, besides potentially December 2018?

Winter 11-12

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Winter 11-12

C'mon, dude...... he was asking a serious question.

 

[JHS]

C'mon, dude...... he was asking a serious question.

Not sure we ever get another winter like 2011-2012. January and February were warm of course, but March was crazy. I do not think we'll see another March that warm anytime soon.

 

[Chazwin]

Not sure we ever get another winter like 2011-2012. January and February were warm of course, but March was crazy. I do not think we'll see another March that warm anytime soon.

That whole winter except for a few days in mid February was ridiculous... I actually remember reading somewhere that debris on the surface of the North Pacific from the Japan tsunami may have contributed to the very unusually mild winter for the eastern 2/3rds of the US...

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Just give me a mountain topper the first weekend in December! We’ll be traversing NewFound Gap that weekend! Snow capital of the south

 

[SD]

Winter 11-12

The cpc analogs are mildly interesting

 

[EmersonGA]

The cpc analogs are mildly interesting
View attachment 52970

Some winters with very cold periods in there.