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Ostrich December

gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_8.png

CMC has been showing this for a couple runs now.
 
This is going to be a major system for the Eastern US, love it! going to have a lot to talk about!! Weekend model watching engaged.

Already expecting disappointment down here in the Midlands, but pulling for everyone!
 
SD said:
Guess no one mentioned the icon because it didn't show cold chasing moisture but it's a big severe threat for all of the Carolinas/Ga even back into Al/Ms/Tn
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Crazy part is, it could have digged something else nicely after the severe but it just didn’t 116F8870-6267-4B86-B870-5850BA0C6B42.png
 
Storm5 said:
The icon sucks and doesn’t fit the wintry Christmas narrative. We toss


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meh gotta have a little perspective here. Even the "wintry" gfs is a decent severe setup for the eastern Carolinas. If you start pushing west like the ICON suddenly more and more people go from hoping to see a corn flake in the street light to worrying about severe.
 
Ollie Williams said:
I really love the fact that the wave digs! Get things this thing to dig and tilt negative, and you really have something on your hands. January 2000:

View attachment 58519
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I don't think that's the best comparison to this situation, but boy I wish. Hour 144 on the 12z GFS looks like it could cutoff like we want with a bit more of a dig.

I don't think the ridging we have out ahead of this wave is doing us any favors here, and compare that to Jan 2000 where the flow was relatively flat across the SE/Atlantic before the trough dived. The ridge at 850 is particularly concerning for having cold air in place before the arrival of the system, and favors the more inland type of track we saw here. You don't happen to have 850 data of Jan 2000, do you? I suspect it looks... vastly different than this.
gfs_z850_vort_us_22.png
 
The GFS is probably nipping a little too much eggnog. Anafront snow is really difficult east of the mountains.

As others have suggested, maybe we can get a postfrontal wave with the cold air already in place, but there isn't much support for that right now.

For now, I'll be pleased to have arctic air around for Christmas day.
 
RVD said:
Who knew that the best low position for upstate SC/western NC was near Winston Salem?
View attachment 58514
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The foothills and MTNs would get smoked with heavy wet snow any other time id root for a low riding the coast but that would be awesome IF the cold doesent get trapped up in the MTNS.
 
Those in the central and eastern upstate could definitely do well in that setup. Especially if you get a secondary low to form. Another big thing here is the temperature gradient. You have below freezing temps and temps pushing 60 in the midlands that are separated by about 30 miles. That screams severe weather.
 
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