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Ostrich December

I’m sorry but I just can’t see how that GFS solution works to bring snow into the Piedmont of the NC. That run had Charlotte going from 55 at 18z to snow falling at 21z with the cold air coming in from the west over the mountains. The fastest temperature drop and into snow that I can recall in Charlotte metro was February 1999... the temperature went from 50 just before noon with rain and dropped to 32 by 5pm with heavy snow and thunder... that case however saw a strong CAD moving in to initially drop temperatures to the upper 30s to near 40 then an ULL moved over and cooled the column quickly enough to give us a quick 3 inches of snow... after the ULL moved past the temperature actually rose back into the upper 30s
 
As @Ollie Williams has alluded to, you need the trough to basically go - tilt near us, which allows a sfc low to develop, deepen and slows the precipitation shield down and allows the cold to catch up, although I think the GFS is overdone B00CC5D0-8CA0-4943-9BE8-E9CB4C9465FD.pngF7C65F33-E2E0-435A-B942-1B5EAB608DC5.pngif the temp dropped that fast, I wanna bet a issue would be IP before snow imo 94F1A698-C3C9-447E-A9A0-45963401C9B3.png
 
SD said:
meh gotta have a little perspective here. Even the "wintry" gfs is a decent severe setup for the eastern Carolinas. If you start pushing west like the ICON suddenly more and more people go from hoping to see a corn flake in the street light to worrying about severe.
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95 percent of people would prefer the cornflake around Christmas


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Not really buying into the gfs. I think it’s to aggressive. Mountains will see snow most likely but let’s see what euro says. Cold chasing moisture does not work for upstate sc most the time


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SD said:
Not saying I wouldn't either but ignoring the alternate scenario of a big severe event because it doesn't show snow is crazy
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When another model shows it and there is consistency then I won’t ignore . Right all we can do is fish . Trying to make spiked lemonade out of rotten lemons at this point . Our only option


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Maybe a forum for a light wintry mix Sunday morning. I do think there’s a little confidence for that.


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