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Ostrich December

Meanwhile the 00z Euro makes the case for at least a high shear/low cape conditional severe threat Christmas Eve over central and Eastern NC.


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That is the only modeling I’ve seen that puts 2m temps that warm. Most are at least 20° colder if not more.
 
Yeah the difference between the GFS/Euro isn’t even night and day at this point, but what the GFS does, is it dives that 2nd N/S behind and it takes on a neutral tilt after a first peice moves thru which in a way sorta “throws back moisture” and develops a low off the NC coast while the euro does this to early and dumps off that N/S energy in the trough to quick to our west and it tilts to our west, resulting in HSLC severe with maybe some flurries on the backside, it’s not even far apart but where these features Happens is huge, while this anafrontal, something like the GFS would work East of the mountains with a wave developing off the coast View attachment 58498View attachment 58499

Good analysis.


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I disagree .. while yes east of the mountains it’s tough working with an anafront and usually it doesn’t work out for us but that doesn’t mean it won’t ..
Hopefully in this case it works out. Or if we can get a low to pop that would do the job. I've just seen so many cases where it's actually forecasted for rain to turn to something wintery and we end up failing. I'm usually very optimistic but not in these situations.
 
Snow in the southeast in general is becoming an endangered species. Snow on Christmas in the southeast is like walking outside and seeing dinosaurs playing hopscotch in your front yard. Based on the H5 look on the GFS and Euro with the trends (especially on the GFS) I may just be able to go outside on christmas day and see those said dinosaurs running around in my front yard. And if we can pop a coastal down by SAV, which is a possibility, Hell I'll run around with the damn dinosaurs in the snow.
 
I don’t know why I’m so bullish on next week but I am. With the intense degree of cold coming in it wouldn’t take much energy to pump out something wintery at high ratios. I also don’t think our long range models handle clippers well. Somebody fixin’ to get NAM’d.


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