You know the only time that I’ve ever seen Charlotte metro switch from rain to snow with a surface low in that general location was the 1993 Superstorm. Obviously that particular example was a fully stacked low that at that point had pressures as low as a major hurricane, but that shows you the dynamics that would have to exist to make it work.
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
RVD
Meteorology Student
This is one of the better long range operational GFS evolutions. Like the 00z (and unlike the 06z), the -NAO block that gets pumped up from our Christmas day storm is well-oriented and sticks around. Meanwhile, the big east coast trough evolves into the low trapped over eastern Canada. The Pacific is a mess, but we'll see if we can pull something off and maybe get a transient west coast ridge or something.
Storm5
Member
It’s not on all models . There are threads to ----- in . This isn’t the one
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Well it actually looks like there is some ensemble support for what the operational just put... who’s knows??? It is still 2020 for another 2 weeks
I get excited when I go an hour at work and my pants are vibrating like crazy. I check my notifications from the board and I have 77. Something good must have happened 
Please!!! I know everyone treats starting a thread like crack cocaine around here. Let’s wait to the last minute. It gets crazy with alerts from so many threads.
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Please!!! I know everyone treats starting a thread like crack cocaine around here. Let’s wait to the last minute. It gets crazy with alerts from so many threads.
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I'm not entirely opposed but let's at least get through the 12z euro. If it looks like crap the gfs is on a bit of an island
12z GEFS members:
Broken024
Member
Not a bad average... skewed I'm sure
I hate anafront potential too and I see other's commenting just like I, but this particular setup isn't typical anafront precip right? It looks more backside deepening low snow really
LovingGulfLows
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Not a bad average for my neck of the woods and I counted 10 members with some type of measurable snowfall accum as well. Interesting for 7 days out, but the GEFS has screwed me hard before so I of course take it with a grain of salt. Skeptical of the setup, but it does look to be a strong arctic front so who knows....
Yep, secondary low develops from the negatively tilted trough, rates would be heavy from that sort of stuff, the problem is, you literally gotta have perfect timing and a perfect H5 look, it could easily go to crap
thats what makes it fun right, we could easily delay the negative tilt of the trough and see coastal. Should be fun to follow but the trend of the CMC and Icon so far weren't great and with a meh to non existent -NAO up stream I would favor this slowly leaking NW versus SE.
For the folks in the Carolinas, this is a great trend in the past 24 hours as seen below. Since then it has showed signs of a secondary low forming. The low should form off the coast. This is exactly where you want this to be at eight days from now.
It would be more beneficial if the transition would happen sooner around southern Georgia, but at this point great potential. I’m not sure on the latest speed of the air but the transition will slow the qpf field allowing colder air to settle in.
At what point do we rename our Baja Wave to Cali.. Honestly, I wish that would speed up to Arizona by Christmas.
As [mention]Myfrotho704_ [/mention] mention it’s on
the verge from a severe outbreak to a heavy snow potential.
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It would be more beneficial if the transition would happen sooner around southern Georgia, but at this point great potential. I’m not sure on the latest speed of the air but the transition will slow the qpf field allowing colder air to settle in.
At what point do we rename our Baja Wave to Cali.. Honestly, I wish that would speed up to Arizona by Christmas.
As [mention]Myfrotho704_ [/mention] mention it’s on
the verge from a severe outbreak to a heavy snow potential.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
UK could have been good/could have not been, don’t know what it was about to do with that N/S trough, but this is something different 
Shouldn't you say "Western Carolinas"? Central NC and East always sweats coastals.That warm nose usually ruins the party for my neck of the woods. The Carolina Crusher was an exception, but even with that, places 30 - 40 miles NW of me got a foot more snow than I did.For the folks in the Carolinas, this is a great trend in the past 24 hours as seen below. Since then it has showed signs of a secondary low forming. The low should form off the coast. This is exactly where you want this to be at eight days from now.
It would be more beneficial if the transition would happen sooner around southern Georgia, but at this point great potential. I’m not sure on the latest speed of the air but the transition will slow the qpf field allowing colder air to settle in.
At what point do we rename our Baja Wave to Cali.. Honestly, I wish that would speed up to Arizona by Christmas.
As [mention]Myfrotho704_ [/mention] mention it’s on
the verge from a severe outbreak to a heavy snow potential.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Wowza hopefully the GEFS can follow suit over the next day with that intense block, were not done with a active stormy pattern if this sorta stuff is correct....
