Webberweather53
Meteorologist
A 1072mb sfc high on the GEFS mean 6.5 days out. Holy ?
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Ostrich December
- Thread starter SETNwx
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is honestly the strongest E Asia cold surge & positive mountain torque event I can remember watching in real-time, MSLPa above +4 sigma & 850s greater than -4 to -5 sigma is insane. Get ready for an extended Pacific jet & +PNA, possibly a West Pacific MJO event, & polar vortex destruction as we enter early January.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's the links to these maps shown above from Alicia Bentley:
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime.html
http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime.html
SnowNiner
Member
You had me at +PNA. Yes please! ???
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I think we're gonna have to keep an eye on the tail end of Dec imo, a classic CAD pattern is setting itself up at 500mb here on the 12z Euro and its ensembles have been hinting at it for a while.
Brent
Member
Yeah sure TWC
While this is meh, it’s worth noting the euro has been super amped in the medium range lately, and it’s still close to a nice CAD look Synoptically, although this verbatim isn’t the best 
That storm is up towards Mack's house on the Euro this run.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Amp & slow the Atlantic Canada trough and we're in business imo.
Wonder if areas south of the CAD dome would probably have to contend with severe weather with this look
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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Jimmy finally Jackpots?
Tarheel1
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LickWx
Member
Anyone have the maxar map for how biased models have been ? Another day of shooting well over what models forecast . Gfs had 51 for today , currently 56.
Also as expected forecast for Christmas Eve warmed up now to near 70.
Also as expected forecast for Christmas Eve warmed up now to near 70.
I think I would like to have a cup of coffee with her. She has a brilliant mind and a lot of honors from prestigious ambassadors from different backgrounds.
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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
And not in a good way lol
Clem282340
Member
I know that we are the medium range is this storm just mountain storm or can others on the broad bridge involved as well such as upstate and ne ga
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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That’s a weird thermal profile, doesn’t look like a classic wedge?
If your in a CAD region it’s something to watch.
Good lord. That would be a hit!
Hmm, we'll see......
.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Otherwise, Christmas Day will be cold. Highs will struggle to
rise above freezing in north Georgia and barely rise above 40 in
central Georgia. In fact, if the current forecast high of 35 at
Atlanta is realized, it would tie for the 5th coldest Christmas
high temperature and the coldest since 1989. Temperatures will
gradually moderate through the weekend, approaching normal highs
by Sunday. The next weak system looks to approach by Monday or so,
though some minor timing differences remain between models. At
any rate, QPF appears minor at this time.
RW
.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...
Otherwise, Christmas Day will be cold. Highs will struggle to
rise above freezing in north Georgia and barely rise above 40 in
central Georgia. In fact, if the current forecast high of 35 at
Atlanta is realized, it would tie for the 5th coldest Christmas
high temperature and the coldest since 1989. Temperatures will
gradually moderate through the weekend, approaching normal highs
by Sunday. The next weak system looks to approach by Monday or so,
though some minor timing differences remain between models. At
any rate, QPF appears minor at this time.
RW
Seems like over time with each cutoff that moves underneath the ridge, the block retrogrades west to a far more favorable location, bring it on
ECMWF
GFS 
ECMWF
GFS
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Gotta love planetary vorticity advection from high amplitude blocks!
That could be key to delivering something down the road, but it’s still just interesting at this point
Keep it going 
Just about to post this. Starting to see operationals show what happens when blocking starts to work. If we get more PNA we will have something to track during this time frame.
Yeah for example that last miller B/CAD close call, models had it cutting/doing a weird transfer to our north around D7-10, (gefs didn’t even catch on till about 5-6 days out) but trending to more blocking over time which allowed our super close call with that cold rain and suppressed the storm a bit , wouldn’t shock me if we do it again
I also think global models are starting to catch on to the pattern the ensembles and teleconnections have hinted at. Now we are nearing peak climo, I think we may see more than cold rains start showing up, but we will see. Interesting times might be right around the corner, even before the unicorn SSWE has a chance to appear.
BHS1975
Member
Mega frost alert tonight.
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Clem282340
Member
I heard a lot people on here talking about this sswe is this a good or bad
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Im sure ICE is in our cards somewhere on down the line but im not enthused. It really takes alot to get a good ICE storm. last big one i got was in 2016 or 2017 got about .50 out of 3.0 of rain. With all this blocking one would think a good ole fashion snowstorm is in the cards somewhere i think the models are starting to hint at it. The date that has my attention is around Jan 6. Thats the time to watch imo
The pattern coming up before New Years honestly is one of the best looks for ice I’ve seen in a while, it really just depends on how amped/fast or slow our southern wave is, and how amped/fast or slow the southeast Canada vortex is
I was looking at that today def bears watching. Heck today is just the 2nd day of winter no worries for sure plenty of time.
Yeah tbh I’ve been impatient, but I remember it’s only December, and we’re already running up a pattern way better than last years shitfest, we don’t talk about 2019-2020 nomore around here lol
Maybe good. As others have said, it disrupts the atmosphere enough to usually keep the vortex up north from bottling up the cold, and more likely for cold air masses to plunge southward, although more often than not it seems to affect Europe more than North America it seems.
Dunno if this produces but we’re playing with Fire here for ice 
SimeonNC
Member
A 1038 high in NE Virginia? Oh wow
Now that might be a true wedge. Remains to be seen