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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

A lot of posts about how amazingly hot it has been and will be and how Octobers have changed. Meanwhile this is just a textbook La Niña October.


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Usmeagle2005 said:
I knew the earth was warming but it’s scary how bad it’s getting, 80’s and 90’s are normal for October now, 70’s for Christmas. How bad is it going to be even 10 years from now? Like someone said earlier I thought it was a fluke a couple of years ago but this is 3 years in a row and it just looks the same in the forecast.
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It's going to get to the point we will be fully entrenched in the Dog Days into October. Highs in the mid 90s, lows near 80, for weeks on end.
 
Well looking like it s going to be wet and warm for the next 10 days or so... Highs 80's Lows near 70, with RW and TRW through Saturday
 
At least it is better to many than rain and 33 degrees, which many hate the most.
 
GfS/CMC are showing some cooler end of run. Maybe by end of Oct around Halloween it should get cooler
 
For the next 2 weeks or so (as far as the models go out), the 12Z GEFS and EPS remain warm dominated in the E half of the US with any cooling very shortlived.

One thing to note (not that this will have much short term effect on the overall pattern): solar activity had been much higher over the last month than in prior months, something that was not at all predictable. However, we may finally be about to go into another spotless period. We'll see.
 
GaWx said:
For the next 2 weeks or so (as far as the models go out), the 12Z GEFS and EPS remain warm dominated in the E half of the US with any cooling very shortlived.

One thing to note (not that this will have much short term effect on the overall pattern): solar activity had been much higher over the last month than in prior months, something that was not at all predictable. However, we may finally be about to go into another spotless period. We'll see.
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Not to mention we also had an X8 solar flare, which was the largest in over a decade. It seems like we may be quiet in a day or two.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Not to mention we also had an X8 solar flare, which was the largest in over a decade. It seems like we may be quiet in a day or two.
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Good point about the solar flare. Wild stuff and shows how unpredictable the sun can be at least for short periods. I don't know if you noticed, but several days in early Sep. had solar flux that was the highest in two years or so! Will the sun make up for this high activity with very quiet conditions shortly?
 
GaWx said:
solar activity had been much higher over the last month than in prior months, something that was not at all predictable
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Waiting for this sort of report sometime in late December until sometime in February -- we all look at models and indices, and lock in on those, and seem to forget that there are powers we don't even begin to fathom that also drive weather; sure, I love putting the jigsaw puzzle together every season, but there are forces we haven't begun to figure out ... makes it fun ...
 
pcbjr said:
Waiting for this sort of report sometime in late December until sometime in February -- we all look at models and indices, and lock in on those, and seem to forget that there are powers we don't even begin to fathom that also drive weather; sure, I love putting the jigsaw puzzle together every season, but there are forces we haven't begun to figure out ... makes it fun ...
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Nicely said.


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ATLwxfan said:
A lot of posts about how amazingly hot it has been and will be and how Octobers have changed. Meanwhile this is just a textbook La Niña October.


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Maybe so but I can't remember the last cool October even through an El nino. It's like it doesn't matter it's just nonstop warmth nowadays
 
I’m just worried after last year because we were all saying it’s only October save it for winter then it was November and models were showing cold two weeks out (always 2 weeks out) then by middle of December huge patter change (got cold for 2 days then back to warm). Christmas was warm, and we just kept on thinking it was coming. And here we are again. It’s like a bad movie plot where I keep getting my hopes up and the girl keeps on leaving me and now I don’t trust the next girl.
 
I have no science whatsoever behind my statements, maybe it’s a short term thing, wish a volcano on a island in the middle of nowhere would shoot ash into the sky and help cool, I’m desperate. :)
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
I’m just worried after last year because we were all saying it’s only October save it for winter then it was November and models were showing cold two weeks out (always 2 weeks out) then by middle of December huge patter change (got cold for 2 days then back to warm). Christmas was warm, and we just kept on thinking it was coming. And here we are again. It’s like a bad movie plot where I keep getting my hopes up and the girl keeps on leaving me and now I don’t trust the next girl.
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Trust your senses ... :cool:
 
Sometimes It feels like I live in Florida again with these longer summers. At least in Florida the beach is close.
 
Usmeagle2005 said:
I’m just worried after last year because we were all saying it’s only October save it for winter then it was November and models were showing cold two weeks out (always 2 weeks out) then by middle of December huge patter change (got cold for 2 days then back to warm). Christmas was warm, and we just kept on thinking it was coming. And here we are again. It’s like a bad movie plot where I keep getting my hopes up and the girl keeps on leaving me and now I don’t trust the next girl.
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I have a possible solution. Just always assume it will be warm and snowless. Then you won't have to worry if it f it is going to be cold and snowy since you're never expecting it. There's no disappointment. If it turns out to get cold/snowy at times, which just about always happens at some point if you live far inland or not in FL, you'll be happy. It is all about expectations. Why expect cold and snowy anyway? Why torture yourself with unrealistic expectations, especially without El Nino?

Here I never expect snow, even a trace. I'm never disappointed.even though I love snow in the south.
 
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GaWx said:
I have a possible solution. Just always assume it will be warm. Then you won't have to worry if it f it is going to be cold since you're never expecting it. There's no disappointment. If it turns out to get cold at times, which just about always happens at times, you'll be happy. It is all about expectations. Why expect cold anyway? Why torture yourself with unrealistic expectations, especially without El Nino?

Here I never expect snow, even a trace. I'm never disappointed.
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That is true, because honestly the biggest snows we have had is when I have given up.... example: February 2015, winter was over for me, (so I thought) just randomly checked the forecast and saw winter storm warnings, got 9 inches out of it. But when I am watching a storm every run of the GFS, always get burned.
 
SnowE73 said:
Sometimes It feels like I live in Florida again with these longer summers. At least in Florida the beach is close.
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Yeah our climate is slowly becoming like FL. It's only a matter of time before snow is an ancient memory in Atlanta. Heck it's already been almost 4 years since Atlanta ( the airport) had any significant snow.
 
Meanwhile what I'd give to be in Denver tomorrow... 4-6 inches of snow expected on October 9th...

Forecast for the airport here is 97, 2 degrees above the record high:rolleyes:
 
DT's new video is out... found it to be somewhat encouraging for the upcoming Winter:
 
This kind of weather cant be good for pumpkins. I remember in 2010 i carved a pumpkin on Oct 28 and by Oct 31 it was rotten due to the damp, humid weather.
 
Hopefully this winter we get a significant snowstorm, with lots of snow to make up the difference over the few lost years.
 
The 80% chance of rain is panning our wonderfully today! :(
 
looking at the top 5 warmest Octobers for Chattanooga.. the theme seems to be slightly cool Winters with little snow. Last year was one exception. 07-08 wasn't all that good either.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Yeah our climate is slowly becoming like FL. It's only a matter of time before snow is an ancient memory in Atlanta. Heck it's already been almost 4 years since Atlanta ( the airport) had any significant snow.
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You get one boohoo for this. From December 2002 to Febuary 2010 I didn't receive more than an inch and a half and the little events I did receive melted in a couple hours.
 
Arcc said:
You get one boohoo for this. From December 2002 to Febuary 2010 I didn't receive more than an inch and a half and the little events I did receive melted in a couple hours.
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I lived in Florida for 18 years so I went though snow withdrawal. I lived in Central NC for the past seven years (until June) and I got at least one small snowfall each winter, with the best being the Christmas snow in 2010. I was one of the winners this past January in High Point, NC when I got around 9 inches. It sounds like I will be lucky to see 1/3 of that anytime soon in Atlanta.
 
Oh, Lord have mercy on us ...

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SnowE73 said:
I lived in Florida for 18 years so I went though snow withdrawal. I lived in Central NC for the past seven years (until June) and I got at least one small snowfall each winter, with the best being the Christmas snow in 2010. I was one of the winners this past January in High Point, NC when I got around 9 inches. It sounds like I will be lucky to see 1/3 of that anytime soon in Atlanta.
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Atlanta ( the airport) hasnt had a 6" snowstorm in close to 35 years so i wouldnt hold my breath.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Atlanta ( the airport) hasnt had a 6" snowstorm in close to 35 years so i wouldnt hold my breath.
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1. Part of the problem is that you're looking for something that climo of the last 113 years says not to expect as there have been only 4 6"+ snows (assuming 1/1982 is counted when in reality it wasn't from a single 6"+ snow...it was actually from back to back Miller As with IP/ZR between them (~1/2-1" of the precip was actually from sleet and 1.2" of the snow was from the 2nd low). If you take out 1982, you're left with only 1983, 1940, and 1936 as 6"+ single snowstorms officially at ATL since 1904-5. 3/1993 was 6"+ but only mainly in the northern (and western?) suburbs. Interestingly, ATL was clobbered with many 6"+ snowstorms the prior 20 years (Feb was the biggest month) but that was when the climate was colder there (and the official station being 11 miles further north didn't hurt).

2. In focusing on 6"+ snowstorms, you're leaving out several major sleetstorms or sleet-snow combos that added to less than 6" that often had much more impact than a pure 6" snow. Examples: 2/1979 and 1/1988. Also, the highest liquid equivalent winter storms at ATL have mainly been major ZRs.(~0.75"+ of ZR). If you were to go back in history and randomly pick out a 1"+ liquid equivalent major ATL winter storm without knowing ahead of time the type of precip, in most cases you'd be picking a major ZR.

3. There hasn't been a 6"+ snow in SAV ~180 years. I certainly don't focus on when the next one will be though I'd love to see it! There hasn't been a 1"+ snow in SAV since 1989 but I expect to be able to survive if none occur here for another 30 years..
 
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