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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

Overall pattern appears to favor large-scale warmth across much of the east-central US thru the 3rd week of October as the PV shifts towards the North American side of the arctic and we retreat back to low frequency NINA tropical forcing w/ limited intraseasonal variability....
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This is in line with what you'd expect for October preceding a La Nina...
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Just looked at the models only to see that our cold front is no where to be found next week. Last week it was showing it coming on Monday which then got pushed back to Tuesday. And yesterday it got pushed to Wednesday. I swear if this winter looks anything like last year I’m going to lose it. Oh well I guess we still have plenty of time as it’s still early fall.
 
olhausen said:
Just looked at the models only to see that our cold front is no where to be found next week. Last week it was showing it coming on Monday which then got pushed back to Tuesday. And yesterday it got pushed to Wednesday. I swear if this winter looks anything like last year I’m going to lose it. Oh well I guess we still have plenty of time as it’s still early fall.
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It's still showing a nice cool down the following week (Oct 15-20) time frame. If that one busts as well, then I give up
 
The upcoming look isn't horrible for rain in the Carolinas. Nate and the SW flow around the SE ridge drive in a large area of above normal pwats. As nate passes by it should leave a trough/shear axis in is wake. A wedge front will approach from the north as a reasonably strong 1032 high moves through the NE. This combo should be enough to set off a few rounds of showers and storms through Friday. I'm not sold on a drought buster but I have a hard time seeing most areas getting blanked. It's going to be very muggy though with dew points well into the 60s to possibly as high as the mid 70s.

Its a very atypical pattern for October but I'll take what I can get. I fear if we miss out this week we might go on another long dry streak

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While I'm at it. What does it take to go from d0 to d1 on the drought monitor. Given what we have I'd hate to see above D1 that must be no rain in a year

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I'm trying to remember the last normal October... this is insanity...

like a new normal
 
for the period of 2000-2010, CHA had 5 out of ten Octobers with BN temps... This decade is so far, only has 2.. 2011, 2012. Will look at other decades later. Would be interesting to do a multi-decade analysis of October mean temps versus Enso,pdo, qbo, nao states as well.
 
whamby said:
for the period of 2000-2010, CHA had 5 out of ten Octobers with BN temps... This decade is so far, only has 2.. 2011, 2012. Will look at other decades later. Would be interesting to do a multi-decade analysis of October mean temps versus Enso,pdo, qbo, nao states as well.
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Also should add, at least here in CHA, we've had AN Winter snowfall in this decade versus last...
 
Decent supercell in Tn
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forecasting 95 here Monday with a heat index over 100, we're paying for that "not so bad" summer lol

At least it will cool off for a day or two after.:rolleyes:
 
SD said:
Idk could have been just took a quick glance when I was watching football

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Only reason I knew is because it looked like the county I'm from in KY, which is actually bordered by TN on 2 sides. My sister, who lives there, verified they had a warning last night.
 
I knew the earth was warming but it’s scary how bad it’s getting, 80’s and 90’s are normal for October now, 70’s for Christmas. How bad is it going to be even 10 years from now? Like someone said earlier I thought it was a fluke a couple of years ago but this is 3 years in a row and it just looks the same in the forecast.
 
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