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Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

"2017-10-10 88 75 81.5 18.1"

75 is probably an all time record low maximum for the Month of October in CHA going back to 1879. Not sure where to find record low maximums though. NOWDATA doesn't have this variable to search for....
 
whamby said:
is there any way to know what the ENSO state was during the 1912-13 Winter? That year-- temperature-wise-- looks creepily like this year. And the Winter was mostly a dud, except for that late Nov snowstorm.
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I recently constructed an ensemble based, quality controlled, Oceanic Nino Index going back to 1865... The amplitude of many of the events esp before 1950 may be dampened due to large uncertainties between various SST reconstructions... 1912-13 was most likely a cold ENSO neutral winter
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whamby said:
"2017-10-10 88 75 81.5 18.1"

75 is probably an all time record low maximum for the Month of October in CHA going back to 1879. Not sure where to find record low maximums though. NOWDATA doesn't have this variable to search for....
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Oh yes it is the highest monthly record low max by a lot (at least thus far, that could change later in the month)...
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If you select these options you should see record low daily maximum temperatures for each month & year.
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I like the GFS after Monday next week lately. The really long range may likely change but there's hope for finally some normal weather at the very least.
 
Really liking what I am seeing for the B'ham metro next week. Upper 60s to mid 70s during the days and low 50s maybe upper 40s at night. Our Company Golf Tourney is next Thursday and the current forecast show 53 early, high 72, and mostly sunny. I am all in.

Also liking what Webb is saying about the not so distant future with the pattern change. Normal to slightly below normal will seen very cold compared to recent Nov-Mar periods. Lock it in.
 
MRStorm said:
Really liking what I am seeing for the B'ham metro next week. Upper 60s to mid 70s during the days and low 50s maybe upper 40s at night. Our Company Golf Tourney is next Thursday and the current forecast show 53 early, high 72, and mostly sunny. I am all in.

Also liking what Webb is saying about the not so distant future with the pattern change. Normal to slightly below normal will seen very cold compared to recent Nov-Mar periods. Lock it in.
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Hit them straight !
 
SD said:
D1 drought!

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Congrats!
With the pattern setting up after 4-5 days next week of cool air, back to the furnace, and 0 rain basically the next 10-15 days, only looks to get worse! The pattern shown with the big ridge east/ trough west the end of next week, will likely repeat all winter! :(. Maybe we can squeeze a sleet storm out this winter, in between 10-15 day stretches of torch!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Congrats!
With the pattern setting up after 4-5 days next week of cool air, back to the furnace, and 0 rain basically the next 10-15 days, only looks to get worse! The pattern shown with the big ridge east/ trough west the end of next week, will likely repeat all winter! :(. Maybe we can squeeze a sleet storm out this winter, in between 10-15 day stretches of torch!
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Thanks we really worked hard to get here

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Not going to make last years mistake and say glad we are getting to ridge overwith now, thinking it had to end sooner or later (was a idot and thought winter would be cold cause that ridge can’t hold that long).... one year later... ridge.
 
SD said:
Call me crazy but I like the idea of below normal after the 25th

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OK - Crazy ... however I'll defer to a higher knowledge base ... though normal is a distinct possibility ... but then, who am I ... :eek::confused:o_O
 
SD said:
Call me crazy but I like the idea of below normal after the 25th

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Crazy! I think the heat has gotten to you!
 
To be honest I think Irma started it (after a couple of days of it being very comfortable, it got very humid) but tonight will at least be the last day of is this early August or July with the low temps? It would have been in the high 90s if it was a mere six-eight weeks earlier.

It seems like at the very least after this week it will at least not be getting very hot after the coming cool spell and above average is not necessarily 90s anymore.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
To be honest I think Irma started it (after a couple of days of it being very comfortable, it got very humid) but tonight will at least be the last day of is this early August or July with the low temps? It would have been in the high 90s if it was a mere six-eight weeks earlier.

It seems like at the very least after this week it will at least not be getting very hot after the coming cool spell and above average is not necessarily 90s anymore.
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I totally blame Irma. Before irma, it was nice and cool. 40s in early September !
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I totally blame Irma. Before irma, it was nice and cool. 40s in early September !
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the same was true here honestly... the summer wasn't that bad(tons of rain), then Harvey happened and everyone thought summer was over. August was actually the first below normal month for temperatures in over a year...

But it came back with a vengeance after Irma(didn't rain for a month after such a wet summer) until the front this week
 
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Well regardless of what warmth we had, the pattern is looking good end of month. ATM.
 
All aboard the CMC if you want low 40s soon and a freeze in the mountains!
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Drizzle! = Winning
 
Only one model run, and by no means would it warrant a trip to the bank, but at least AN is scoured away on the super ensemble ... :D

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This comes with some transient teleconnection support ...

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Admittedly, there is a lot more than this going on, so take it with the necessary grain of salt, and ...
We'll see ... :rolleyes:
 
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I can live with the GFS from 78 to 312. It doesn't stay below average, but when it does go above it's not well above then and that doesn't mean mid 90s or 90s at all, it means mid 80s at most.

Thankfully its the 300+ hour GFS I can't live with, meaning if I want something different, just wait until next time!
 
olhausen said:
This morning my heater kicked on for this first time since spring! Looks like tomorrow will warm back up a little but then a front comes through late Sunday that should eventually cool off everyone on this forum!
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I love the eventual optimism for "everyone" ... LOL ... pcbjr ... :cool:
 
Confidence for a late month pattern change is increasing as a huge signal for a recurving typhoon a little over a week from now on the EPS, combined w/ background state changes, should lead a large-scale trough over the east-central US by after the 25th or so...
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Webberweather53 said:
Confidence for a late month pattern change is increasing as a huge signal for a recurving typhoon a little over a week from now on the EPS, combined w/ background state changes, should lead a large-scale trough over the east-central US by after the 25th or so...
View attachment 1397
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Webb,
As I mentioned this AM (a page back, I think), there are indices suggesting a change ... thanks for pointing out the potential trigger!
Best!
Phil
PS - Was scratching my head on the why ... really appreciate the insight! ... ;)
 
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pcbjr said:
Webb,
As I mentioned this AM (a page back, I think), there are indices suggesting a change ... thanks for pointing out the potential trigger!
Best!
Phil
PS - Was scratching my head on the why ... really appreciate the insight! ... ;)
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Yeah, certainly can't rule out more than 1 either... Seen a few EPS control runs w/ 2 recurving typhoons during the 3rd week of October, which would be even more conducive to a huge trough east of the Rockies near the end of the month and rolling into Nov
 
Storm5 said:
Typhoons are cranking in the Pacific . Let's recurve these bad boys and blow this pattern up
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JB, is that you!?
Tell us how you called for this to happen in the spring! :(
 
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