Dewpoint Dan
Member
March 2012 was really warm.
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Pattern October Thread
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Zander98al
Guest
2012 as a whole felt really warm lolm
Actually it doesn't get any worse than that for my area at least. Only year on record that didn't even get a sleet pellet. Charlotte got a trace so I guess that could technically do worse. But even if a winter as bad as that one repeats at 500mb I suppose we could still sneak in a storm since no two winters are identical.
smast16
Member
smast16 is team Euro this week!
Look at that the cool weather HELPS drought! Lit.
Man that’s impressive ICON has highs in the mid 80s early next week and lows in the upper 60s/low 70s, pretty unusual for October, that’s 20-30 degrees AN at night for some areas 
NoSnowATL
Member
cd2play
Member
I’m on the edge with you!
yes !! 
NoSnowATL
Member
The crazy thing about this and 11-12 was that in 11-12 we had a nor easter around Halloween too. Freaky
I didn't know it came with cooler air behind it, haven't heard anything about that
This is insane. 850s around 17C is definitely supportive of temps in the upper 80s, especially with the winds out the west at the SFC and a sort of downsloping sort of look tacking on to temps aloft. Days prior it’s gonna be in the low 80s 
NoSnowATL
Member
Kirk nows all. I’m guessing cooler air these days is normal temps.
The cooler air behind it showing up on ensembles is basically average to -5F. Gotta love pacific fronts/troughs. Weaksauce
tennessee storm
Member
No staying power either … looking at some guidance off 12z gfs. Wouldn’t surprise me see a area in 30 percent severe probs in spc mornings update. Southern plains region
It's still cooler, this isn't Dec, Jan or Feb.... not sure what the expectation is for this time of the year. Is it above average, yes, is it down right warm yes, but you're not gonna get true arctic fronts rn with massive subfreezing temps. Heck average to a degree or two below is perfect walking weather, I've heard
Still a pacific trough at hour 306
I'd like a frost but realistically we are probably just getting into the window for one
tennessee storm
Member
We don’t get any changes in the pacific won’t matter what month winter we are in. Still going be pacific air . Could this be 11 12 winter repeat . Which is actually a top analog being discussed heading in to winter
So I've heard
cd2play
Member
Sure looks uncannily similar. Even Alaska.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Honestly, if its like 11-12 winter maybe thats for the best. After all, I've heard heating bills could be really high this year so a warmer winter would help a lot of people financially.
cd2play
Member
Plus we won’t have to worry about our neighbors 30 miles away getting rocked by a snowstorm while we get snow holed. This way everyone misses. We would all be in this together.
Euro still is the most aggressive with a severe wx threat 
These are nighttime soundings… even with a global model that typically wants to decouple the BL at night, it’s shows soundings capable of rotating, surface based thunderstorms
Goodness
Didn’t realize the UK just completely switched to a severe weather setup east of I-77. Pretty aggressive parameters for all hazards 
Not really used to this set up in fall so not sure what to expect. This would be a fairly high end by NC standards look in spring
Upgrade?
I expected much more cold from this deep closed off feature but it’s nothing notable at all, just a decent late season chill at best 
It’s still a decent change of things tho compared to early next week 
tennessee storm
Member
Yep when the air mass is basically off the pac it's only going to be so cold and dry. I'd take it though
Yeah but the bigger issue is they broke the euro. This thing has been a cut off machine since the upgrade. If that goes into winter where we start getting enough cold air it's going to be a tough road
Only if it was January 
Yup. Maybe it's just a product of the current pattern so once we start losing the blocky stuff in Canada this will stop happening but if it doesn't we should see some classic meltdowns