From a spatial standpoint, that’s extremely impressive across eastern North America how widespread those AN temps are and something that just isn’t that common, it’s not always about the smaller picture
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern October Thread
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Wait a minute, that weak trough at the GLs might make things interesting, might try to wavebreak here 
More Nw flow that will never happen, I don’t remember the last time modeled NW flow storms has happened 
That’s a monstrous western trough, that would introduce plains severe wx 
Last edited:
Man, can’t wait to see that SE us ridge on the EPS/control past 240 
Brent
Member
88 Friday from the NWS and 90 next Saturday on the TWC app
It better be short lived lol ?
At least it rained... Some of my Dallas friends said it did not down there
Nah yeah rip the NE but the SE chillin I feel like we’ve really been spared by the big heat waves this year they have just bubbled above us
GEFS tries retrogression past mid month 
Yeah right.
We finally got a couple 15 minute heavy downpours yesterday and just a little while ago today here.
But apparently, thunderstorms just don't happen in Addison any more.
We gonna warm no doubt and with a lack of polar or arctic air and typical airmass moderation when/if we get a decent sfc wedge into the area on the front end of the ridge we might get back to average for a day or 2 before a solid 8-10 AN period. If we get the jet retraction and retrogression we might get into an EC trough in the d14-21 but the potential hyperactive typhoon period upcoming makes me wonder if the models are rushing it or mishandling the evolution. I'm still watching the NAtl over the next few days to see if we start wave breaking and -NAOing. As a whole though if you want fall like air this isn't what you want to see at least in the short term.
Last edited:
I do though believe that we eventually get out of this but conservatively it's probably the last 10 days of the month and we might actually go BN
BufordWX
Member
FFC talking about a lot of rain for Georgia folks this week.
JHS
Member
Not that it will happen, but this discussion remotely reminds me of how things went in GA in September 2009.
Definitely interesting seeing what the Gfs is trying to do in regards to keeping low pressure around the SE coast while the ride tries to get going .. we still warm for a while but if that low pressure can stick around long enough it might be able to buy us enough time to get to a good cold front through
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
2025 Supporter
Oct 18th last year! 
Can you show 240-280 or so that’s when I think that trough pushes through the East I don’t think we stay locked in this pattern at least
Nothing special
GEFS has this but there’s no sort of legit cool air feed 
Honestly not looking for cold air feed rn in early October but if we can squeak average instead of above that would put us upper 70s highs and upper 50s for lows which would be perfect
NoSnowATL
Member
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Not super far off from that 6 to 8 bullseye but seeing the widespread 4 to 6 is already going to spell an extremely wet week. Prob going to exceed the monthly average across most of the northern part of the state in just one week which is pretty crazy. I'm curious to see the final total map on if this overperforms or underperforms. I'll be measuring mby at least.
It's very unusual to see these kind of totals in October without a tropical system. When I look at these maps I always think in the back of my mind it would be great if it were winter and cold enough for snow lol.
Thankfully the Ensembles are normally straight up garbage.
LickWx
Member
Dang. Entire 10 day is nothing but low 80s and low 60s with cloud . Not unpleasant but ideally we would be getting sun and high 70s instead . Well, means more beach weather I guess .
smast16
Member
So much for all that upcoming rain in Central NC. Went from 3+ over the weeks to 1.
Glad I didn't hold my breath.
Glad I didn't hold my breath.
Yeah thanks for NC re-floating the failboat(again) and sending it my way. Thanks a lot…..
Lightning photography chances the day before my bday ? Okayyy
smast16
Member
I keeps going the wrong way.
With the amount you complain about it you deserve 0 inches
That’s mean ?
You’re more in western anyway I suspect you’ll see more than 1 .. all u need is to get lucky with a couple of cells tomorrow and that’ll help .. we will have rain opportunity for the next week so id relax on the my backyard is dry apocalypse talk for now
Are you secretly smast?? Burner account??
Nope. Young vs old we win
When was the last time the SE was in a major widespread legit drought? I feel like it’s been a while anyone know?
Oct 2019 was probably the last time a good % of the region was D0 or worse but there have been intermittent periods where lower % parts of the region were D0/1/2 since then. Not sure why region coverage of drought matters though since local drought in convective session seem more likely
I’m just trying to think back to a time the SE as a whole was in significant drought/ constant ridges stuck in that type of pattern for months like I feel like the WEST deals with every other year now … I certainly remember a time in the summer one year when I was a kid where it would just never rain .. don’t see much of that anymore