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October Odyssey

SETNwx said:
Bring it on home: View attachment 49785
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While I’m not saying the 300 hour gfs is right, I could see this happening if we get a nice northern stream trough that phases with what’s left over of a old trough around here with a nice western ridge that develops, again not saying it’s gonna happen but I could see that happening
 
As I recall the big cold front came in on Halloween and the ski slopes were opening shortly after. Last October was hot then about two weeks of mild Fall weather then winter. So Fall lasted about 2 weeks last year (at least around here); that's the best of my faulty recollection. Enjoying this October so far but could do without Delta heading this way.
 
So far, this fall has acted quite fall-like. I have no problem with anything so far. Further, I don't really buy into causality or correlation of fall temps to winter temps. You can find analogs and statistics to show anything you want. But I'm not convinced a warm or cold October or September or November or October and September or October and November or September plus the first half of October plus the second third of November minus the last day of November means anything at all wrt the winter.
 
Rain Cold said:
So far, this fall has acted quite fall-like. I have no problem with anything so far. Further, I don't really buy into causality or correlation of fall temps to winter temps. You can find analogs and statistics to show anything you want. But I'm not convinced a warm or cold October or September or November or October and September or October and November or September plus the first half of October plus the second third of November minus the last day of November means anything at all wrt the winter.
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Correct! Winter will likely suck regardless of what fall does. Just seems to be the way it is anymore.
 
CraggyRider said:
As I recall the big cold front came in on Halloween and the ski slopes were opening shortly after. Last October was hot then about two weeks of mild Fall weather then winter. So Fall lasted about 2 weeks last year (at least around here); that's the best of my faulty recollection. Enjoying this October so far but could do without Delta heading this way.
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The cold in the first half of November last year was impressive. Quite a few mornings in the low to mid 20s here
 
Rain Cold said:
So far, this fall has acted quite fall-like. I have no problem with anything so far. Further, I don't really buy into causality or correlation of fall temps to winter temps. You can find analogs and statistics to show anything you want. But I'm not convinced a warm or cold October or September or November or October and September or October and November or September plus the first half of October plus the second third of November minus the last day of November means anything at all wrt the winter.
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So be honest; if we get a big Halloween storm followed by cold in early to mid November, will you be a bit nervous (..more than normal) about the upcoming winter?
 
Rain Cold said:
So far, this fall has acted quite fall-like. I have no problem with anything so far. Further, I don't really buy into causality or correlation of fall temps to winter temps. You can find analogs and statistics to show anything you want. But I'm not convinced a warm or cold October or September or November or October and September or October and November or September plus the first half of October plus the second third of November minus the last day of November means anything at all wrt the winter.
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I've seen years and years of people posting analogs for/against winter based on Oct/Nov temps. I've learned to take ALL with skepticism. What happens, happens. Really, all it takes for most winter lovers in the SE is one big winter storm. Those can occur during el ninos, la ninas, etc.
 
WxGSO said:
I've seen years and years of people posting analogs for/against winter based on Oct/Nov temps. I've learned to take ALL with skepticism. What happens, happens. Really, all it takes for most winter lovers in the SE is one big winter storm. Those can occur during el ninos, la ninas, etc.
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You are correct. It just takes one storm a lot of times to make a good winter. Everyone that experienced the January 1988 storm will still refer to it even now, especially for how much of a widespread event it was for the entire south. However when you look at the winter of ‘87-‘88 as a whole, it was fairly boring outside of that one storm and the cold that followed, but if ask people how that winter was, most would say it was really good.
 
FallsLake said:
So be honest; if we get a big Halloween storm followed by cold in early to mid November, will you be a bit nervous (..more than normal) about the upcoming winter?
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Probably not anymore. I used to give it some consideration. But honestly, I don't think it makes a lot of difference. I don't see how, scientifically, that it would matter beyond that of being a coincidence.
 
Rain Cold said:
Probably not anymore. I used to give it some consideration. But honestly, I don't think it makes a lot of difference. I don't see how, scientifically, that it would matter beyond that of being a coincidence.
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You're probably right. I can't give any scientific reasoning on why a cold first half of November would signal a warmer overall winter pattern. I guess it comes from so many memories where it was cold during that period, we got excited about a great upcoming winter, but ultimately we were disappointed. I'm sure somebody (Larry) could throw out stats showing just as many warm starts to November ending in disappointment; which goes with normal SE living.
 
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