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October Odyssey

I’ve not had a chance to look at anything other than the 850 and 500mb charts that have been posted on here today, but you would think with that look there might be a significant storm system ahead of that front.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Would think to if that second trough does reload and dig far enough west, and heights manage to temporarily rebound out ahead the next trough severe would come into the picture, sorta like what happened in spring, just something that popped up in my mind View attachment 50045View attachment 50046
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Back to the time of the year where the EPS loves to hold troughs against the Rockies when there's a big cold shot coming out of NW Canada & the Arctic
 
wxdaniel said:
I guess I will start my weatherbell winter subscription this weekend.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Is Wxbell the best site to track ☔️ ?
 
To kind of give the potential/similarities of the type of pattern that’s possibly coming up and it’s ability to produce cold (not snow) the pattern that most models show is somewhat similar to the pattern seen around feb 2014 (other than -EPO and 50/50 low) but there was quite a -WPO, but remember sometimes with -EPOs they can fail around here and instead introduce a western trough and a SER, not much in between 1E85AA0D-2143-4F74-9D9F-CC41572C06A9.gif0392E98F-8769-44EE-862D-D0E69AAB8962.jpegB368A83E-BCC4-4E10-9925-7CAF87900F5E.png78CD51D3-4826-4A4D-AE6D-C22BDF7E8231.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Better start warming up to this look:

View attachment 50111
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6z coming in and it has a similar look; but the trough out west is not as deep and looks to be move eastward overtime. Lol, the 0z would have another hurricane hit the gulf (at ~ day 15). The 6z has one moving into the gulf ~ day 12 (almost looks like Delta's path).
 
FallsLake said:
6z coming in and it has a similar look; but the trough out west is not as deep and looks to be move eastward overtime. Lol, the 0z would have another hurricane hit the gulf (at ~ day 15). The 6z has one moving into the gulf ~ day 12 (almost looks like Delta's path).
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Hurricane season is crazy this year. How many hits can LA take?

And GTK the GFS hasn't lost a step with it's cold bias*

* H/T to Maxar
 
So in the shorter term (..or really long term), the next cold front (next weekend) looks to bring dew points below freezing for many on the board. Models are not showing below freezing surface temps outside the mountains, but they may not be seeing the possibility of the high moving overhead and decoupling winds. 6z looks like it could do that on Saturday night. Would be nice to at least get some frost.
 
From RAH:
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM Saturday...

The remnants of Tropical Depression Delta will be over the VA/NC
mountains Monday morning, and while the bulk of the rainfall
associated with the system will be to the northeast, some additional
moisture will extend southeast. Still have a chance of showers
across all locations, with a rumble of thunder possible east of
Interstate 95 during the afternoon hours. The ECMWF and SREF seem to
be wet outliers in showing a shower Monday night with a passing cold
front, but will maintain a dry forecast at this time.

High pressure will then dominate the middle of the work week with
mostly clear skies and near normal temperatures before a stronger
cold front comes through on Friday. The GFS is a faster and drier
solution than the slower and wetter ECMWF solution, and have tried
to put together a compromise forecaster, increasing pops across the
east where the diurnal cycle would favor more precipitation if the
ECMWF solution verifies. The bigger impact from the front will be
the coldest air of the year so far for high temperatures - with it
being seven days out, will start conservatively in the upper 50s and
lower 60s for Saturday, but these numbers may be too warm.
 
FallsLake said:
From RAH:
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 410 AM Saturday...

The remnants of Tropical Depression Delta will be over the VA/NC
mountains Monday morning, and while the bulk of the rainfall
associated with the system will be to the northeast, some additional
moisture will extend southeast. Still have a chance of showers
across all locations, with a rumble of thunder possible east of
Interstate 95 during the afternoon hours. The ECMWF and SREF seem to
be wet outliers in showing a shower Monday night with a passing cold
front, but will maintain a dry forecast at this time.

High pressure will then dominate the middle of the work week with
mostly clear skies and near normal temperatures before a stronger
cold front comes through on Friday. The GFS is a faster and drier
solution than the slower and wetter ECMWF solution, and have tried
to put together a compromise forecaster, increasing pops across the
east where the diurnal cycle would favor more precipitation if the
ECMWF solution verifies. The bigger impact from the front will be
the coldest air of the year so far for high temperatures - with it
being seven days out, will start conservatively in the upper 50s and
lower 60s for Saturday, but these numbers may be too warm.
Click to expand...
That's awesome
 
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