Should be fun being on the gulf for this one. I’ve never had a chance to see what an event like this is like there. Usually that area gets hit pretty hard in setups like this.
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Severe October 27-29 Severe Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Should be fun being on the gulf for this one. I’ve never had a chance to see what an event like this is like there. Usually that area gets hit pretty hard in setups like this.
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Zander98al
Guest
Whats your synopsis on this event arcc? And yess I'm very happy hopefully I get to see a waterspout or something.
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Zander98al
Guest
GFS has a decent warm sector. Dew points pushing 70 on a late October day ?. Also I've never seen this dark of a simulated IR 
Probably gonna be your typical high forcing, very messy fall system. I’m guessing the higher dew points will be confined to just inland. That said probably gonna be a good chance to get some nice supercells off the gulf.
Maybe we will see a water spout ourselves. Gonna be sitting at orange beach.
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Zander98al
Guest
I'm going to be at gulf shores. Right off the beach. Leaving in a hour as a matter of fact lol.
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Zander98al
Guest
Dood this is bonkers. This hodo is INSANE. This is on the LA/MS border. Shear is insane. Any bump or tick up in instability would be devasting. The speed shear will have those bright colors on the velocity tilts ?
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Zander98al
Guest
Surface cape already predicted at near 1300. Which is plenty ample for nasty storms in the fal/winter season. Also this is from the NAM
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Zander98al
Guest
This is the sounding wensday near where me and you are at arcc. Should be a interesting day here on the beach 
Sure is. Wind field is more unidirectional so it lends to a messy storm mode, but that isn’t as big a deal on the coast. That 0-3km Cape is pretty impressive. Be nice to see a waterspout from high up in that condo.
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Zander98al
Guest
Yup. I'm on the 19th floor right off the beach. I'll try and get pics on my end.
I'm in Baton Rouge, keeping a close watch on this one.
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Zander98al
Guest
Looking at the 12z nam. Higher helicity is going further south and higher instability is reaching further north. You got the warm front about a 100 miles inland . Will be interesting too see wether some cells setup shop along the boundary. CAMS still are not in range unfortunately. 
BufordWX
Member
Looks like an active night around here tomorrow. Thankfully the enhanced is only for a wind/hail threat with a lower tornado threat.
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Zander98al
Guest
Winds are becoming more backed from the southeast. More and likely positioning because of the warm front. This may be more nasty that the system is closer to the gulf. 
Big cape chaser going across the GC on most models now but with the negative tilt you have to think there's decent moisture return in Al/GA. Farther east we may get some Atlantic moisture involved and potentially try to form a mesolow.
Hmmm ? 
Might see some hailers in WNC with this 
Also could be a decent soaking for everyone 3km looked like we were headed for glory with water
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Zander98al
Guest
That's a little concerning lol
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Zander98al
Guest
I'm actually pretty pumped about tommorow event here on the gulf. May be dark outside when it's prime time. But should be able to see with the reflecting moonlight and lightening. Either way good chance at seeing some stuff on the 19th floor of a condo ?
BufordWX
Member
Haven’t been following this one nearly as much as the ones earlier this month due to a busier schedule, but it certainly looks like a legit wind threat and maybe some QLCS tornado potential here sometime around midnight.
I’m actually glad it is waiting until evening. Gives us a nice day tomorrow to go watch the blue angels practice. Sooo annoying that the public cannot get into the Air museum right now.
Both WRFs show the possibility of supercells over the gulf or just inland.
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Zander98al
Guest
Going deep sea fishing tomorrow morning. Lol so it good that it's in the afternoon. Wish my wife would have brought her expensive camera , for the storms.
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Zander98al
Guest
Kind've giving me the vibes of the December 2012 ef3 tornado that went through mobile. From what I remeber the surface low is in the general location.
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Zander98al
Guest
0-3km cape is pretty sufficient and wind shear is good. If cape budges even 50 miles north than what models show. It wouldnt be good. Those two convection models you showed earlier has some nasty supercells onshore and just offshore. Do you think they might issue a hatched area a bit inland?Not bad at all for right on the gulf.
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Zander98al
Guest
I kind of doubt it. Too much uncertainty where that front hangs.
Not only is the nam 3km forecasting a very wet late Thursday night into Friday but also a very windy one! Check these gusts out with the system approaching .. this is completely outside of any type of severe weather that may try to get going (although increasingly looking more like a coast threat) 
Decent MUCAPE values, with a stable sfc layer on the 3k its all elevated.
You have to wonder for parts of MS/AL/Ga how the MCS moving along the gulf coast will affect any convection. Strictly from a sim ref product and not looking at the soundings this looks rough
Interesting, those are some nice low topped soundings in the Piedmont 
Yeah soundings aren't great. Inversion and low to non existent SB cape. Probably just the model picking up on a little elevated cape and high shear and throwing out those kidney bean shapes.
NoSnowATL
Member
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Zander98al
Guest
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I'm not sure tbh. Pretty steep pressure gradient across the state ~12mb so it'll be windy but 30-40 mph gusts on the cool more stable side seems hard to do