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Severe October 27-29 Severe Potential

I'm actually pretty pumped about tommorow event here on the gulf. May be dark outside when it's prime time. But should be able to see with the reflecting moonlight and lightening. Either way good chance at seeing some stuff on the 19th floor of a condo ?
 
Haven’t been following this one nearly as much as the ones earlier this month due to a busier schedule, but it certainly looks like a legit wind threat and maybe some QLCS tornado potential here sometime around midnight.
 
Zander98al said:
I'm actually pretty pumped about tommorow event here on the gulf. May be dark outside when it's prime time. But should be able to see with the reflecting moonlight and lightening. Either way good chance at seeing some stuff on the 19th floor of a condo ?
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I’m actually glad it is waiting until evening. Gives us a nice day tomorrow to go watch the blue angels practice. Sooo annoying that the public cannot get into the Air museum right now.
 
Arcc said:
I’m actually glad it is waiting until evening. Gives us a nice day tomorrow to go watch the blue angels practice. Sooo annoying that the public cannot get into the Air museum right now.
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Going deep sea fishing tomorrow morning. Lol so it good that it's in the afternoon. Wish my wife would have brought her expensive camera , for the storms.
 
Arcc said:
Both WRFs show the possibility of supercells over the gulf or just inland.
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Kind've giving me the vibes of the December 2012 ef3 tornado that went through mobile. From what I remeber the surface low is in the general location.
 
Zander98al said:
Kind've giving me the vibes of the December 2012 ef3 tornado that went through mobile. From what I remeber the surface low is in the general location.
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Not bad at all for right on the gulf.

nam4km_2021102618_036_30.35--87.7.png
 
Arcc said:
Not bad at all for right on the gulf.

nam4km_2021102618_036_30.35--87.7.png
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0-3km cape is pretty sufficient and wind shear is good. If cape budges even 50 miles north than what models show. It wouldnt be good. Those two convection models you showed earlier has some nasty supercells onshore and just offshore. Do you think they might issue a hatched area a bit inland?
 
Zander98al said:
0-3km cape is pretty sufficient and wind shear is good. If cape budges even 50 miles north than what models show. It wouldnt be good. Those two convection models you showed earlier has some nasty supercells onshore and just offshore. Do you think they might issue a hatched area a bit inland?
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I kind of doubt it. Too much uncertainty where that front hangs.
 
Not only is the nam 3km forecasting a very wet late Thursday night into Friday but also a very windy one! Check these gusts out with the system approaching .. this is completely outside of any type of severe weather that may try to get going (although increasingly looking more like a coast threat) C1B964B0-0519-40AB-8DE6-A2D5F74D3534.jpegB54E0B67-A396-4429-B651-56F53847D664.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Not only is the nam 3km forecasting a very wet late Thursday night into Friday but also a very windy one! Check these gusts out with the system approaching .. this is completely outside of any type of severe weather that may try to get going (although increasingly looking more like a coast threat) View attachment 93719View attachment 93720
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Decent MUCAPE values, with a stable sfc layer on the 3k its all elevated. 3k cape.png
 
SD said:
You have to wonder for parts of MS/AL/Ga how the MCS moving along the gulf coast will affect any convection. Strictly from a sim ref product and not looking at the soundings this looks rough
View attachment 93724
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I thought that second wave wasn't going to be convective. I thought all the punch was supposed to be in the 1st onw
 
Zander98al said:
I thought that second wave wasn't going to be convective. I thought all the punch was supposed to be in the 1st onw
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Yeah soundings aren't great. Inversion and low to non existent SB cape. Probably just the model picking up on a little elevated cape and high shear and throwing out those kidney bean shapes.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
So you don’t think those gusts are making it to the ground … I just can’t see the day not being at least a bit windy with the evolution of the system as a whole
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I'm not sure tbh. Pretty steep pressure gradient across the state ~12mb so it'll be windy but 30-40 mph gusts on the cool more stable side seems hard to do
 
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