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Severe October 27-29 Severe Potential

Johnkittz said:
Is it moving southeast? How is it hugging the coast so hard?
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It's not hugging the coast anywhere between the day 5 and 6 risk area will more and likely see severe weather. Don't focus on specific risk circles. I think a good chunk of the southeast will see severe weather. Very big height falls with this low. Looks like it'll be pretty sufficient in the vertical motion parameters lol

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Pretty interesting how active the severe weather season has been this fall so far. Just from the storms last week Oklahoma has already had the most tornadoes in a single October in the state records with 28 so far. Looks like we may be adding to that total in the coming week as well.
 
Gotta feeling this may be on par with the two outbreaks that affected Alabama in March. This one has way more height falls. But less instability. But I think enough vertical motion can balance out lesser instability. These fall and winter systems usually top out at around 2000 j
 
You know what it's been about 20 years since we've had a true tornado outbreak in Alabama during the fall season. The veterans day tornado outbreak happened 19 years ago. History usually repeats itself. Weve been overdue for a impactful fall system. Don't think it would be as significant though as the veterans day one.
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Lapse rates won't be a limiting factor it looks like. Checking sounds across the south half of Alabama. From the surface to 500mb. There's 6.5+ on each one. The surface instability is around 500 per the gfs. I'm going to lean towards this upticking. My guess is to around 1000 or so.
 
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