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Severe October 27-29 Severe Potential

Arcc said:
Should be fun being on the gulf for this one. I’ve never had a chance to see what an event like this is like there. Usually that area gets hit pretty hard in setups like this.
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Whats your synopsis on this event arcc? And yess I'm very happy hopefully I get to see a waterspout or something.
 
GFS has a decent warm sector. Dew points pushing 70 on a late October day ?. Also I've never seen this dark of a simulated IR Screenshot_20211024-071625.pngScreenshot_20211024-071649.png
 
Zander98al said:
Whats your synopsis on this event arcc? And yess I'm very happy hopefully I get to see a waterspout or something.
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Probably gonna be your typical high forcing, very messy fall system. I’m guessing the higher dew points will be confined to just inland. That said probably gonna be a good chance to get some nice supercells off the gulf.

Maybe we will see a water spout ourselves. Gonna be sitting at orange beach.
 
Arcc said:
Probably gonna be your typical high forcing, very messy fall system. I’m guessing the higher dew points will be confined to just inland. That said probably gonna be a good chance to get some nice supercells off the gulf.

Maybe we will see a water spout ourselves. Gonna be sitting at orange beach.
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Arcc said:
Probably gonna be your typical high forcing, very messy fall system. I’m guessing the higher dew points will be confined to just inland. That said probably gonna be a good chance to get some nice supercells off the gulf.

Maybe we will see a water spout ourselves. Gonna be sitting at orange beach.
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I'm going to be at gulf shores. Right off the beach. Leaving in a hour as a matter of fact lol.
 
Dood this is bonkers. This hodo is INSANE. This is on the LA/MS border. Shear is insane. Any bump or tick up in instability would be devasting. The speed shear will have those bright colors on the velocity tilts ?2021102412_NAM_084_30.55,-92.17_severe_ml.png
 
Surface cape already predicted at near 1300. Which is plenty ample for nasty storms in the fal/winter season. Also this is from the NAM
 
Zander98al said:
This is the sounding wensday near where me and you are at arcc. Should be a interesting day here on the beach View attachment 93552
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Sure is. Wind field is more unidirectional so it lends to a messy storm mode, but that isn’t as big a deal on the coast. That 0-3km Cape is pretty impressive. Be nice to see a waterspout from high up in that condo.
 
Arcc said:
Sure is. Wind field is more unidirectional so it lends to a messy storm mode, but that isn’t as big a deal on the coast. That 0-3km Cape is pretty impressive. Be nice to see a waterspout from high up in that condo.
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Yup. I'm on the 19th floor right off the beach. I'll try and get pics on my end.
 
Looking at the 12z nam. Higher helicity is going further south and higher instability is reaching further north. You got the warm front about a 100 miles inland . Will be interesting too see wether some cells setup shop along the boundary. CAMS still are not in range unfortunately. 2021102512_NAM_072_30.57,-87.26_severe_ml.pngScreenshot_20211025-093846.pngScreenshot_20211025-093857.png
 
Winds are becoming more backed from the southeast. More and likely positioning because of the warm front. This may be more nasty that the system is closer to the gulf. Screenshot_20211025-160916.pngScreenshot_20211025-161236-314.png
 
Big cape chaser going across the GC on most models now but with the negative tilt you have to think there's decent moisture return in Al/GA. Farther east we may get some Atlantic moisture involved and potentially try to form a mesolow.
 
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