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Severe October 27-29 Severe Potential

Johnkittz said:
Is it moving southeast? How is it hugging the coast so hard?
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It's not hugging the coast anywhere between the day 5 and 6 risk area will more and likely see severe weather. Don't focus on specific risk circles. I think a good chunk of the southeast will see severe weather. Very big height falls with this low. Looks like it'll be pretty sufficient in the vertical motion parameters lol

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Pretty interesting how active the severe weather season has been this fall so far. Just from the storms last week Oklahoma has already had the most tornadoes in a single October in the state records with 28 so far. Looks like we may be adding to that total in the coming week as well.
 
Gotta feeling this may be on par with the two outbreaks that affected Alabama in March. This one has way more height falls. But less instability. But I think enough vertical motion can balance out lesser instability. These fall and winter systems usually top out at around 2000 j
 
You know what it's been about 20 years since we've had a true tornado outbreak in Alabama during the fall season. The veterans day tornado outbreak happened 19 years ago. History usually repeats itself. Weve been overdue for a impactful fall system. Don't think it would be as significant though as the veterans day one.
Screenshot_20211022-095710.pngScreenshot_20211022-093944-990.png
 
Lapse rates won't be a limiting factor it looks like. Checking sounds across the south half of Alabama. From the surface to 500mb. There's 6.5+ on each one. The surface instability is around 500 per the gfs. I'm going to lean towards this upticking. My guess is to around 1000 or so.
 
One thing I have to say about this event. Is I feel cape is being vastly under modeled. There's a surplus of high instability. Right off the shore, with a strong LLJ. Should be pumping it into the south. As we get closer I feel this should be shown, typically models uptick as things get closer. The amount of factors into potentially tornadic storms is kind've worrying. There's a reason why there was a risk outlined 6 days in advance. I'm going to go out on a limb and say we will probably get near the threshold 2000 for the southern half Mississippi and Alabama. And also the pressure has constantly been going down with each model run. The height falls are very impressive for this to be near a 1000mb low. The lower this thing gets the more windhsear and more volatile things will get. Which I also think the low will be a decent bit deeper than modeled currently. But if we're looking for a event to be a big producer this looks like it can be one. Wind fields already look crazy. Something you usually don't see even in spring lol. Screenshot_20211023-093125-109.pngScreenshot_20211023-093043-854.png
 
The south half of miss and Alabama is still in the bullseye lining up with the spc risk area as well. Don't focus on the risk area per the analogs though. It's always fluctuating. The main point is that similar events to this one, have produced stuffScreenshot_20211023-094144-601.png
 
That upper level low off the east coast really prevents moisture return from going to far north, the more east you go especially. It does setup a boundary tho 646E5579-3AF7-4B15-95C4-9FB3B1BEB09B.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That upper level low off the east coast really prevents moisture return from going to far north, the more east you go especially. It does setup a boundary tho View attachment 93349
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Yeah looks like we may miss out on the second severe threat but we get an exclusive with the first one … everyone eats!
 
Keeps ticking down in pressure almost in the 980s. Now waiting for the 12z euro run. The precip is streaky which don't look good ?Screenshot_20211023-111724.png
 
wind fields are screaming. It won't take much for 2000j to migrate north into the southern half of bama and miss. 70 dew points are forecast for a big chunk of the southern half of these states. 500j doesn't seem to be high enough.
 
12z Euro has very cellular convection. Small warm sector, euro depicts cells riding behind the warm front as it progresses north. Screenshot_20211023-140542-303.pngScreenshot_20211023-140634-137.png
 
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