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Pattern Novemburrr

Webberweather53 said:
I smell a SE ridge coming on. This ridge is west of Alaska, which is more favorable to -PNA

View attachment 94522
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What I've learned from pro mets including you and verified by my own observations is that if you want the best shot at cold in the SE US, you'd want the mean ridge to be over W NA from W Canada (and possibly far E Alaska) down through the W US and a trough centered near the longitude of the C Aleutian chain. I realize that this isn't the best shot at cross polar flow. Rather, this is the best shot at cold in the SE from what I've learned. So going further, I don't see having cross polar flow as necessarily increasing the chance for SE cold. Sometimes it ends up leading to a very cold SE but often it misses and we get Feb of 2021 instead with the intense cold in the C and/or W US.

This is more for the SE states (MS eastward but especially GA/FL. SC, NC). W TN/AR/LA often do better coldwise.
 
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GaWx said:
What I've learned from pro mets including you and verified by my own observations is that if you want the best shot at cold in the SE US, you'd want the mean ridge to be over W NA from W Canada (and possibly far E Alaska) down through the W US and a trough centered near the longitude of the C Aleutian chain. I realize that this isn't the best shot at cross polar flow. Rather, this is the best shot at cold in the SE from what I've learned. So going further, I don't see having cross polar flow as necessarily increasing the chance for SE cold. Sometimes it ends up leading to a very cold SE but often it misses and we get Feb of 2021 instead with the intense cold in the C and/or W US.

This is more for the SE states (MS eastward but especially GA/FL. SC, NC). W TN/AR/LA often do better coldwise.
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Bring the snow and ice to the great state of Arkansas ??
 
Webberweather53 said:
I smell a SE ridge coming on. This ridge is west of Alaska, which is more favorable to -PNA

View attachment 94522
Click to expand...

It is hard to bet against the Webb and the trend from the 0Z GEFS through the 18Z GEFS isn't encouraging for SE cold until very late in the run. Before that, it is the warmest run of the last 4 by a good margin. Then it suddenly gets cold. Sound familiar?
 
GaWx said:
It is hard to bet against the Webb and the trend from the 0Z GEFS through the 18Z GEFS isn't encouraging for SE cold until very late in the run. Before that, it is the warmest run of the last 4 by a good margin. Then it suddenly gets cold. Sound familiar?
Click to expand...
carrot in front the ole donkey dangling routine. lol., keeps get pushing further back
 
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