Pattern Novemburrr

[Webberweather53]

As promised, here's my analysis maps of the snow event that occurred this past Wednesday night and Thursday morning for both NC & SC. Both have been archived on my site.

http://www.webberweather.com

View attachment 94453

View attachment 94452

Here’s GSP’s map of the event. Maybe they felt pressured to do one after seeing mine ?

 

[Tarheel1]

GFS is stupid and dumb. Has an accuracy of 5% correctness at 5 day lead time

This is why:

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

This is why:View attachment 94479

Yeah it just made sense with a La Niña pattern IMO

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s cross polar flow

 

[Webberweather53]

That’s cross polar flow View attachment 94482View attachment 94483View attachment 94484View attachment 94485

Gimme a western us cold dump

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gimme a western us cold dump

Certainly that risk of the SER poking in with that look and establishing itself

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Very sensitive stuff if we amp up to much in AK, push the ridge out west anymore west that CP flow is going straight to Brent and webb, watch for the GEFS to be progressive with this sort of pattern

 

[Myfrotho704_]

However with a TPV near Canada that’s about as cold of a source as you can get in November

 

[Rain Cold]

However with a TPV near Canada that’s about as cold of a source as you can get in November View attachment 94489

What you don't want to see is a wave break roll-over ridge and create a trough back west underneath the top of the ridge. That's not shown in your image, which is good.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

West is about to get cold.

 

[SD]

West is about to get cold. View attachment 94492

I hope so so that you guys can get what you have obsessed over since August

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

 

[Rain Cold]

Just about the right placement for one of our winter storms on that image too. Missing the Triangle just west.

Seriously, this one will probably end up east. In the dead of winter, it would track right up through the coastal plain.

Looks to be a good call. Still may have a shower or two in the Triangle area tonight and some breezy conditions tomorrow.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I want snow

 

[Mr. Golf]

I want snow View attachment 94501View attachment 94502View attachment 94503

I'm ready for that big daddy ice storm here. We are due for one for sure.?

 

[Mr. Golf]

 

[NCSNOW]

0z Gfs has snowbreaking containment into western piedmont, foothils next sat night into sun morn

 

[Arcc]

I want snow View attachment 94501View attachment 94502View attachment 94503

Starting to play with the 2013-2014 look.

 

[EmersonGA]

31.3 with an SD special mega frost. Kudzu doesn’t stand a chance.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]