Pattern Novemburrr

[tennessee storm]

I've heard this before.

Still hardly much snow cover north to really get our temps in the frigid zone… that’s a stair step thing. Hopefully as months end things start change

 

[Webberweather53]

we could as easily turn this into severe wx for the southern parts of the SE/southern plains,
But overall the + tilt isn’t to impressive for severe wx View attachment 95157

Razor thin margins pattern wise between severe weather & CAD, and it's all dependent on how fast that upper low comes out of the SW. However, a beefy -NAO like that, the timing of the upper low really may not matter a whole lot because there will be consistent confluence over New England almost regardless

 

[Brent]

Well at least there's snow in the state this run ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Wow some legit fantasy storms on the GEFS

*for NC eyes only*

 

[Deleted member 609]

Wow some legit fantasy storms on the GEFS

Pics or it didn't happen

 

[olhausen]

My biggest question still is how this pattern progresses into December. Gut tells me the NAO breaks down by then but who knows

I don’t really worry about how the pattern looks this early as long as we aren’t torching. This time next month is when my interest really starts to peak on how the weather patterns are unfolding. By then we will start to have a better idea of how January will be looking as far as warmer or colder. I’ve had snowfall 3 Novembers in a row so I know average wise I’m unlikely to see that this season.

November 2018

November 2019
November 2020

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Pics or it didn't happen

Timing is everything lol

 

[Webberweather53]

Timing is everything lol View attachment 95163

That's like... 2 maybe 3 members at best. I wouldn't get my hopes up for anything yet unless I was in the mountains or perhaps far NW piedmont

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

That's like... 2 maybe 3 members at best. I wouldn't get my hopes up for anything yet unless I was in the mountains or perhaps far NW piedmont

I count 6 with accumulating snow in NC and some flurry members .. it’s noise and my hopes are certainly not up as they’ll be gone next gefs run but the bigger ones did have that Miller B look as we’ve been talking about so that slight possibility is there

 

[GaStorm]

I would like to see if there is a tendency for a stout -NAO in November to repeat in winter months. The old saying the weather in November the winter will remember might actually happen if the block keeps coming back.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I would like to see if there is a tendency for a stout -NAO in November to repeat in winter months. The old saying the weather in November the winter will remember might actually happen if the block keeps coming back.

As much as I wish this was true I don’t believe there is any correlation between weather in November repeating over the winter months

 

[Webberweather53]

Delayed but not denied!

 

[GaStorm]

As much as I wish this was true I don’t believe there is any correlation between weather in November repeating over the winter months

I don't believe there is too much correlation for temps but blocking might be a different story.

 

[smast16]

Yep NE, SE can trough/heights building in between the western trough and SE can trough under the block, who’s ready for cold rain CAD

I still want that sweet juicy rain baby!

 

[jackendrickwx]

Goodness

 

[GaWx]

I would like to see if there is a tendency for a stout -NAO in November to repeat in winter months. The old saying the weather in November the winter will remember might actually happen if the block keeps coming back.

For October, there's no virtually no correlation between -NAO then and in winter. For November, I'd have to research it like I did for October.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Ollie Williams]

I think a lot of what is going to happen is up in the air past Thanksgiving, but there looks to be some good consensus of a polar outbreak on the 22nd-23rd.

 

[Stormdoc]

View attachment 95168
Yep, that’s a 1057 high over Greenland

 

[Webberweather53]

The 12z Euro is delivering me the goods

 

[Ollie Williams]

The 12z Euro is really not a bad setup for a Miller B. Deepen the trough over the NE, and you get more cold air. Really nice high position.

 

[Stormdoc]

The 12z Euro is delivering me the goods

View attachment 95170

Which should turn in to a gulf low for us later. May not be cold enough for us here by then, but worth watching.

 

[Brent]

Why is it at day 10 ?

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Alright who’s got the control and ensembles lol

 

[GaWx]

SE Cold lover fans probably won't like the 12Z EPS quite as much as the 0Z.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like it will definately feel like Christmas after Thanksgiving. That's all you can ask for at this point. Maybe it'll bring us a chance of some snow, too, to really get us in the spirit.

 

[LickWx]

I have a hankering for a 45 degree cold rain . Do the models show any of that ? I actually wouldn’t mind a steady 45 degree rainy day. Especially if it is dry at @smast16 place .

 

[GaWx]

SE Cold lover fans probably won't like the 12Z EPS quite as much as the 0Z.

Bump, it is clearly warmer than the 0Z with SERitis being suspected (diagnosis code "SER" I think). Let's all try to stay up tonight (not as hard now that it is standard time) and root on it going back to a colder EPS! the models love to go back and forth.

 

[SD]

Eps mean is a little more troughed in the east later in the run but also a little less ridge out west. Go figure

 

[LickWx]

Eps mean is a little more troughed in the east later in the run but also a little less ridge out west. Go figure

Do what I do and take it one day at a time ! Today for example was excellent after 2 days in the 50s with freezes . We woke up to a hard freeze followed by temps in the mid 60s. So even today the mean would be below average . I know it’s not snow but it’s excellent weather .

 

[tennessee storm]

Looks like it will definately feel like Christmas after Thanksgiving. That's all you can ask for at this point. Maybe it'll bring us a chance of some snow, too, to really get us in the spirit.

I call feeling like Christmas with temps in the 30s for highs

 

[smast16]

I have a hankering for a 45 degree cold rain . Do the models show any of that ? I actually wouldn’t mind a steady 45 degree rainy day. Especially if it is dry at @smast16 place .

That's not asking for much.

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Give me temps below 25 and I’ll take my chances with the dry air getting trapped at the surface.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Get rid of that energy around MN/build heights over the GLs and you have a wintry Miller B setup plenty of cold to wedge in for the time of year

 

[GaWx]

View attachment 95174View attachment 95174

As I've said, BAMwx hypes. You can see it right in this. Trying to increase NG prices with #ng/natgas. In contrast, Maxar never does any of this crap. They stick to wx, period, and don't hype that wx either whether it be cold, warm, neither, whatever.

Look at their name: "BAM". That says a lot right there. They want to be loud just like Bastardi.

 

[Webberweather53]

I'm literally salivating

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol, EPS totally caved to the GEFS.

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

As I've said, BAMwx hypes. You can see it right in this. Trying to increase NG prices with #ng/natgas. In contrast, Maxar never does any of this crap. They stick to wx, period, and don't hype that wx either whether it be cold, warm, neither, whatever.

Look at their name: "BAM". That says a lot right there. They want to be loud just like Bastardi.

 

[SnowNiner]

Somebody put winter back in the oven, it's not ready yet. You'll know it's ready when we thaw Alaska. Until then just keep resetting Alexa and expect western troughs and the SE ridge.